One last item,....
Ag commodities (my career) we are in what the industry calls "gut-slot harvest" as producers deliver grains (beans a bit later in the season) to the elevators. Elevator bids to producers should be at their lowest right now. It's supply versus demand. Well, throughout the Midwest, yesterday was some record bidding taking place at elevators. Happened last year too. This is 180 degrees different than what normally should happen. Again, cash bids should be at there lowest point right now and they aren't, hitting some highs of the year. The commodity futures markets are not reflecting what is taking place in the cash markets. It's like the futures markets don't care and/or are suppressed.
At some point, boutique brewery's and pasta makers to major commercial soybean processing plants and grain elevators etc. will be bidding up for ag goods and talking about it in the press. The futures market will need to suddenly wake up. Will New York money go to Chicago? I don't know. Fundamentals say commodities should scream...pretty soon. If you think you're seeing food inflation now, I'd project it will be much worse over the next 12 months. Farmer's household food expenditures are up 5.79% (Jan to present versus last year)...probably related to JPOWELL's transitory inflation (sarcasm). Durum wheat (pasta wheat) availability along with most other quality milling bread wheats are tough to source. Lentils and chick peas and other staples experiencing difficulty too. If you're a pasta eater, buying a couple extra bags or boxes wouldn't be a bad idea. I'm not saying tank-up, but having a bit more pantry inventory then normal is not a bad thing. When a Kraft Mac & Cheese box triples or quadruples in price, there will be some angry folks.
My favorite beef cut is the Tomahawk steak, generally 3 lbs, in July the typical price was $38 today it's $52 in my marketplace. I know, I know, it's a first-world problem, but steak to hamburger is on an incline. Pork and chicken are reasonable, red meat is on the upward trend and been so for a while.
USDA pulled a stunt last week. I'll spare the long, short of the matter, they up'ed the supply side on corn in a problem year. USDA numbers aren't accurate, hell they are still correcting last years numbers. If they are trying to suppress prices to flatten inflation it doesn't work. The cash market will determine that point and right now it says commodities are tight, regardless what the futures markets reflect.
This is probably my only case to see a setback in the stock market before year end should money leave New York and head to Chicago...this or a financial disaster in China.
