BTBT? Anything?

Anyone playing SPY puts with expiration on 9/17? Had some limit orders in place but never got filled today. Is this the month things give back?

How accurate do you think those probabilities are on option trades?

$30,000 Millionaire said:

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yes, you would risk $5K or 200 contracts.

Your maximum gain would be $95,000. All of that said, it is priced the way it is because that is very unlikely to happen and has a 95% chance of not working out. I think risking 0.5% of your account on that type of trade and just planning to either hold until the bitter end or flip it on any strength is a decent lotto trade.

I want to say again that based on the price action, this is extremely unlikely. However, if there is any type of catalyst, there probably isn't a better lotto trade.

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thanks 30k and others for the clarification! still learning here, especially on put credit spreads.

BREwmaster said:

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and if I want to be a true degnerate, just straight up buy the Nov. 10C's, trading at just .10.

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Would it shock anyone if I told you I've been trying to fill the Nov$7.50 calls for $0.05?

McInnis 03 said:

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Tomas Hermensa said:

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I took 1/4 of my TSLA profits from today and bought 725/730/735 and 735/740/745 flies for this Friday. My name's Tomas and I'm an addict.

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So we're pinning 735?

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TSLA touched 730 at the end of the day and immediately bounced to 735.7

Then I must not have bought any stonks haha.

AG 2000' said:

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Howabout those Woody's Pivots on $SAVA today.

And that green line is model T for kicks. Red lines are the Finboaccis.

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Would anyone mind sharing the woody's pivot setup for ToS again? I would love to add it to my lineup. Thanks in advance!

I was following the trend going back to May in the SPY. Every time it has pulled back (looks like OPEX week), it has advanced between 20-23 points before going back down 10-12 points, basically sawtoothing its way through the 400s.

Bottom of the last pull back was about 438.xx and so this trend, if it keeps, should take us close to 460-461 before pulling back to 450 or so.

wanderer said:

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At the end of the day, you could just buy the 11/19 $5c for .25. It's the same break-even point but with unlimited upside.

Plus, it'd be easier to get filled and to liquidate since it's not a spread.

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yep, ding ding, winner winner here. I'm over complicating things. and November calls on WWR are so dang cheap. Maybe I'll compete with Tomas for the 7.50's, lol.

Anyone in CRSR or play options there? Looks like $1M of puts were sold yesterday. Getting tons of WSB and Twitter chatter.

AG 2000' said:

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From the looks of my watchlist and portfolio, the rotation into small caps is definitely under way.

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94 stocks under $1
303 stocks under $2

I'll never forget in early February when we were at the small cap high that there was only like 2 stocks under $1. I will using this as a data point to know when to take some profits on some of my small cap holdings.

GTIAG09 said:

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AG 2000' said:

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Howabout those Woody's Pivots on $SAVA today.

And that green line is model T for kicks. Red lines are the Finboaccis.

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Would anyone mind sharing the woody's pivot setup for ToS again? I would love to add it to my lineup. Thanks in advance!

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I can't get to my setup right now but Woody's Pivots is a core study in ToS, just search for it.

I have the Fibonacci's on there too, can't remember if that's a core study or added. I will look in the morning. I changed the 50% Fib to be a green line instead of red to denote the model T as discussed here.

And the squiggly purple lines are Bollinger Bands at +/- 2.0, McInnis mentioned having those in conjunction with Woody's pivots to eyeball the size of the moves in relation to the pivots.

Crwd pt raises errwhere this morning!

NIO is down pretty good pre-market. Citing lowered Q3 estimates due to supply shortages. Primarily chips. What's new...

$30,000 Millionaire said:

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Negative job numbers. Bullish.

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Just what JPOWELL needs and he's leading the conga line like the energizer bunny.

Now, can't wait for the first Fed comments today.

Read an article stating ADP numbers are not in-sync with US Labor Dept figures and surprise surprise.

Last month ADP had about 330K while the US LD reported over 700K added to the payrolls. So, let's see what the "non-political" Labor Dept will report on Friday.

Saltyag15 said:

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NIO is down pretty good pre-market. Citing lowered Q3 estimates due to supply shortages. Primarily chips. What's new...

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I'm guessing a long $NVDA/short $[auto mfr] pairs trade would have been smokin this quarter but have no correlation data to back it up, chip shortage kinda new phenomenon

I'm still swing trading AMD and like the near-term upside barring a macro event. I don't know if my Sept call spreads are going to get there, but I think this one at least bumps $120 again soon.

Any decent sized pullback and I'll load up on WWR Feb $5 or $7.5 calls. Risk/reward there could be outstanding.

GTIAG09 said:

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AG 2000' said:

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Howabout those Woody's Pivots on $SAVA today.

And that green line is model T for kicks. Red lines are the Finboaccis.

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Would anyone mind sharing the woody's pivot setup for ToS again? I would love to add it to my lineup. Thanks in advance!

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Here you go -

https://tos.mx/7KzNC0I

I have a daily scalp setup for PYPL if anyone wants to join. But we need to see a couple things happen first.

1. $291.40. It's close here before the open, but we need it to hit and bounce off. Above $292.20 and we scrap this whole idea.

2. If it bounces there, then we are looking for between $289.75 and $290.30. Lower than $289.75 and I start to not like the setup. Break below $288.60 and we scrap this idea.

3. If it bounces back up from there, then we tee up our calls. We are looking for it to break resistance that was set in the first step. The second it breaks through we execute. I'm thinking Sep 3 $295's. You can also do the $292.50's if you want to risk more. We don't set a stop, but if it breaks back below our level from Step 1 that we just cleared, we sell at market. A manual stop if you will.

4. As it goes up, we are looking for $292.95. Once it hits that, you either take all profits, or you sell a chunk. The next move could last longer than today theoretically, so anything you leave on the table is risky.

5. It it turns down from there, we have resistance at $291.35 and then at $290.35. Break through both of those and you better not have any calls left as this whole thing invalidates.

6. Bounce off one of these (or a spot between them), and we have runway to $294.50. Max gain is up to $295.50, but I would take my profits sooner.

Remember, we HAVE to see steps 1 and 2 take place for this to even become a possible trade.

mazag08 said:

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I have a daily scalp setup for PYPL if anyone wants to join. But we need to see a couple things happen first.

1. $291.40. It's close here before the open, but we need it to hit and bounce off. Above $292.20 and we scrap this whole idea.

2. If it bounces there, then we are looking for between $289.75 and $290.30. Lower than $289.75 and I start to not like the setup. Break below $288.60 and we scrap this idea.

3. If it bounces back up from there, then we tee up our calls. We are looking for it to break resistance that was set in the first step. The second it breaks through we execute. I'm thinking Sep 3 $295's. You can also do the $292.50's if you want to risk more. We don't set a stop, but if it breaks back below our level from Step 1 that we just cleared, we sell at market. A manual stop if you will.

4. As it goes up, we are looking for $292.95. Once it hits that, you either take all profits, or you sell a chunk. The next move could last longer than today theoretically, so anything you leave on the table is risky.

5. It it turns down from there, we have resistance at $291.35 and then at $290.35. Break through both of those and you better not have any calls left as this whole thing invalidates.

6. Bounce off one of these (or a spot between them), and we have runway to $294.50. Max gain is up to $295.50, but I would take my profits sooner.

Remember, we HAVE to see steps 1 and 2 take place for this to even become a possible trade.

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Steps 1 & 2 just happened. Can't go below the opening bell low.