SpeedyAg90 said:

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Any more news on SAVA?

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No, it's just same the law firms again announcing their intent to sue. They do it all the time for stocks that get pounded.

Monday Macros

Powell Speech Viewed as "Measured"... Non Farm Payroll Looms...

The Powell speech last week set the tone as the market awaits the unemployment numbers Friday... Many called the Powell speech "Dovish", we agree with BB that it was "measured"... Dovish to us meant he could kick tapering into 2022, he clearly said he would do it this year, which, in our opinion, makes it a middle of the road scenario... Of the 3 scenarios we outlined Friday... Now the question is what happens next... The equity geeks see it as positive, but as we enter one of the biggest vacation weeks in the Northern Hemisphere, right before Labor day, markets are quiet with a mild uptick in equity futures.. Treasuries are flat at 1.31, as London was closed today for a bank holiday...

Powell and tapering... Unemployment is key for the start of tapering... The July numbers were good, and now it is up to the August numbers to verify that employment is on a strong trend... Many thought Powell thinks that the Fed November meeting is the time that the Fed will implement the schedule for tapering, to start in December... We think that clearly depends on Friday... Our scenarios for tapering

Scenario 1... Strong employment numbers.. Expectations are currently at 750.. We would view a strong number as approaching 1 million... That would more than likely seal the deal for September announcement and start in October...

Scenario 2... Numbers around or slightly higher than expectation... Hmm... Tough one...he could wait until they get another number... But the Fed needs and wants optionality ... Meaning, getting tapering done in case it is needed again in 2022 or 2023... While we see a strong economic outlook, it is good to get the tapering over with... September would still be a 60/40 probability ...

Scenario 3... Weaker numbers... Under 500... November would then go to 75/25 over September... The can would be kicked down the road... But ultimately the Fed needs to taper... And over half of the speeches last week were hawkish about getting that done now...Kaplan, Bullard, Mester, Waller, Bostic and others

Inflation...you can't say the Wall Street Journal editors don't have a sense of humor... In Saturday's journal, right above Powell's comments of transitory inflation, they have the headline.. "White House Raises Their Inflation Forecast to 4.8%"... Yikes... That was up sharply from their latest forecast in May of 2%.. At least the WH is getting the message that Powell seems to be missing...They also raised their GDP outlook for this year from 5% to 7.2%... And reduced their share of deficit spending from 16.7% to 13.9%... This last number theoretically should be closer to 3%...

Inflation 2..Supply Chains continue to get worse... We saw an old college buddy, who is in the inter-modal space in the Midwest, quoted in an article in the WSJ about shipping issues...so we reached out last night...Spot container shipping from Asia to the West Coast were 462% higher last week than the same time one year ago... That is 4.62 X...massive... The CEO of Maersk said that every shipping container is basically in operation today... Many companies are being forced to be creative.. Trucking and logistics provider Schneider is trying to circumvent shipping bottlenecks by using charter vessels that are much smaller, in order to get from Asia to US Ports other than LA/Long Beach...and Powell thinks the supply chain is transitory... It looks to us that it could be closer to 2 years... but

Inflation 3... And last one... PCE 5 year rate is 2.14%...one year rate is 4.2%, and the three month rate is 6.1%.. The Dallas Fed put out a report last week with a headline "Surging House Prices Expect to Propel Rent Increases, Push Up Inflation"...

Markets should be range bound until Friday...10 year completed a 3 session shooting star pattern in 10 year yields... Which means that 1.38 now is going to be much tougher to penetrate, at least until Friday... There is some resistance at 1.28, and then again at 1.22... But the 1.30-1.35 range should hold... As for equities, we expect a risk on mode, with no large moves, until Friday...

What keeps Powell up at night?"..our answer is that all markets are in bubble territory... There has not been a 5% correction in the major averages in a long time...corporate bonds are too tight..as is junk and many other products... The Fed can't keep interest low forever, especially with our view of inflation... September could be a cruel month for Risk... And that is our outlook... But we do this on Monday's one week at a time, and we think this week will be quiet until Friday at about 9-10 am, after we digest employment data...

RigsTx said:

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Prognightmare said:

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SpeedyAg90 said:

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Any more news on SAVA?

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No, it's just same the law firms again announcing their intent to sue. They do it all the time for stocks that get pounded.

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I'm long SAVA, but this article may be a reason for the drop PM.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4452501-cassava-sciences-alzheimers-disease-controversy

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That was the news that hit it last week. That Suckadick law firm is the one representing the "whistleblower", who isn't a whistleblower, he's the short seller.

HD calls from Friday are an easy double+

HD trade was nice. Left a couple runners. Thanks Ranger!

Ranger222 said:

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Major hurricane hitting the gulf coast this weekend/Monday.

HD with a bullish engulfing candle today and next week's 330c are only .50, seeing volume over 1000. Just sayin'

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Great call Ranger. Starting off the week with a 300% return. Thank you!

watch the mouse