Yall I know I've been posting about GILD for long time now.
Remember we were in a long term ascending triangle. We finally had the impulsive move this week that confirmed we might be seeing a massive breakout.
Here's the initial trigger that led me to believe we might see a huge move up.
The time to trade is after it has confirmed an impulsive move up. So once it took it the three levels of resistance and continued above the upper resistance of the triangle, that was the time to buy shares / calls. We got lucky in that it came back down to test the 34 EMA and shake some people out who already had calls (me, I didn't fall for it). So there was another buying opportunity yesterday. Today it continued higher before consolidating some. After hours it had a huge impulse to re-test our current resistance. There wasn't much volume with the move, but you can see how the 8 EMA bounced off the 34. That's a good sign of a higher continuation.
How far can it ultimately go? Who knows! I have a very simple method which is a standard technical analysis method of determining a possible gain from an impulse up above an ascending triangle. You simply draw a line straight up and down from the lowest confirmed point of the triangle to the upper resistance line. Then take that measurement and apply it to your initial break of resistance in your impulse move.
This is by no means a guarantee. It simply calculates the POTENTIAL max gain.
The other way I chart it (which I much prefer) is to apply Elliot Wave Theory. I'm not going to go crazy in depth because there's A LOT to EW theory. I'm still learning every day. But essentially, an impulsive move consists of 5 subwaves (1-2-3-4-5). Waves 1, 3, and 5 are "impulsive" waves moving in the direction of the overall larger wave which in this case is up (and can also be subdivided into their own 5 wave structures. Waves are fractal and can always be subdivided all the way down to the unreliable 1 min chart). Waves 2 and 4 are "corrective" and moving in the opposite direction of the larger wave trend which is down in this case.
How do we know if we are in an impulsive 5 wave structure and how do we know where the waves are? Well.. we have to go back in time and chart out the larger wave structure that the stock is currently in. Not all stocks fall neatly into wave structure. EW depends on market sentiment. So a stock has to have sentiment that actually cares about it, trades it, and enough volume. GILD has that. Looking back, it seems as if GILD completed a wave structure on May of 2015. After 5 waves are completed, you wll get an a-b-c corrective retracement down which we seem to have ending in December of last year. That's when our ascending triangle starts.
So starting at the bottom of "c", we can begin to chart a new 5 wave structure. We locate our potential waves 1 and 2 and plot our Fibonacci extensions from the beginning of 1, to the end of 1, then to the end of 2. From there, we can expect the wave (1) our wave 3 we are in to hit between the 38.2% and 61.8% extensions. Depending on which ones it hits can alter every move after. GILD seems to have hit the 61.8% level. So knowing that, we expect the wave (2) of our wave 3 to retrace down between the 23.6% and 38.2 levels. GILD hit the 23.6%. Wave (3) of our wave 3 which usually aims for the 100% extension will now attack two fib levels higher, since wave 1 of 3 was extended by two fib levels (61.8% instead of 38.2%). This 138.2% extension that we expect wave (3) of wave 3 to hit just so happens to coincide right under $80 at about $79.5. Crazy huh? From there we will have a wave (4) down between the 76.4% and 100% levels and then a wave (5) of wave 3 between the 176.4% and 200% levels. But let's make sure our move continues as we expect before we start charting out even higher moves. It could all invalidate in the blink of an eye.
Long term GILD chart showing the initial wave. This is our long term wave i. You can then see the a-b-c down to wave ii.
Looking at the 1 year timeframe now where we have our triangle. We know wave ii bottomed. So we begin to chart the long term wave iii. Here you can see waves 1 and 2 of iii. Since we are in wave 3 of iii, I have subdivided further to project our near term levels. So you can also see the waves (1) and (2) of wave 3 of iii. The paragraph above goes through this wave scenario. You can also see how it lines up with our other technical analysis of the triangle and green max gain near term.
Sorry for the long post. I hope you learned something and how multiple techniques can be used simultaneously to identify, confirm, and chart plays. Also, if you decided to jump in on GILD for the potential run to $80, do NOT try and measure timing from my charts. Fib analysis merely projects price points. Timing is UNPREDICTABLE. If this thing does hit $80, it could happen any time in the next 3 months. Trade at your own risk.