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Brian Earl Spilner
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2:53p, 7/30/21
AG
ROKU gave back nearly all of Monday's gains throughout the week.
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Ags2013
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In reply to FJ43 • 2:55p, 7/30/21
AG
FJ43 said:
True or untrue?

If it's a done deal, why wait two weeks?
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confucius_ag
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In reply to wjbrown88 • 2:58p, 7/30/21
AG
wjbrown88 said:
AG 2000' said:
Need to spend the weekend figuring out COVID plays that haven't spiked yet. Pretty clear the Biden regime gonna pump that up next month with lockdowns and delta gonna kill us all fear porn.
This is making me want out of everything
Loaded up on some SPY puts.
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FTAG 2000
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In reply to Ags2013 • 3:05p, 7/30/21
AG
Ags2013 said:
FJ43 said:
True or untrue?

If it's a done deal, why wait two weeks?
Because the Biden Regime and CDC are a bunch of *******s.
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FJ43
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3:11p, 7/30/21
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Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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In reply to FTAG 2000 • 3:13p, 7/30/21
AG 2000' said:
Need to spend the weekend figuring out COVID plays that haven't spiked yet. Pretty clear the Biden regime gonna pump that up next month with lockdowns and delta gonna kill us all fear porn.
Generally speaking, anything that has to do with peoples vice's does well in hard times or economic slow downs or government mandated shutdowns. Stuff like tobacco, booze, high credit risk stuff, netflex/porn, etc. do well. Again usually/generally stuff associated with people's vices in "difficult" times do well..

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Cowboy Curtis
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In reply to Ags2013 • 3:18p, 7/30/21
AG
Ags2013 said:
FJ43 said:
True or untrue?

If it's a done deal, why wait two weeks?

When does school start?
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gougler08
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In reply to Cowboy Curtis • 3:22p, 7/30/21
AG
Cowboy Curtis said:
Ags2013 said:
FJ43 said:
True or untrue?

If it's a done deal, why wait two weeks?

When does school start?
They know that we'll peak in back half of August so this goes in place, we start to come down on cases, they tout that it made the huge difference.

People are generally idiots so they'll accept that and move on
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$30,000 Millionaire
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4:14p, 7/30/21
AG
Max benefit to any sort of action like that would be immediate. Why wait if you believe that's needed? There is no way the population complies.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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FJ43
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4:17p, 7/30/21

DKNG lotto fail...bad.
ROKU lotto puts paid 3-4X if you held.
TSLA lotto scalps were $$$ all day.

Next week is a totally new week. Whether you won or lost this past week next week is new.

Can't wait....

Have a great weekend gents.

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Spoony Love
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4:43p, 7/30/21
AG
I tried TSLA lotto scalps twice. Won one, lost one on stop limit that I thought was ludicrous. Had I not placed it, I would have won later in the day.

NUE lottos paid for me today as well.

MU lotto (only $6 for giggle) did not work either.

Came out green though.
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$30,000 Millionaire
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5:24p, 7/30/21
AG
$BBIG

https://www.musicbusinessworldwide.com/universal-music-group-inks-licensing-deal-with-tiktok-rival-lomotif/
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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$30,000 Millionaire
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7:13p, 7/30/21
AG
I'm going on vacation next week, so will post intermittently. Hopefully we can have TSLA to 1,000 and a broader market 10% puke.

Some setups for your consideration:

  • XHB - September calls. Ideally buy at $74
  • CIEN - September calls, ideally buy at $56.50
  • RH - September puts, ideally buy at $672
  • KMX - Outstanding setup. Enter here, cut at close below 21. September calls
  • DDOG - September calls, ideally buy at $107
  • AFL - two options, play gap fill if it starts to decline. play long if gap holds - easy cut price
  • EA - sell iron butterfly if premium is good or put credit spreads. Bias long
  • CSX - enter if wedge breaks to the upside. Alternative, sell 31P if there is 200 SMA touch. Sort of a crappy setup, but will fly on infrastructure news. Leaps OK option too
  • AMAT - long above 143 if it breaks that darvas box and hold on to your butts. Give yourself time
  • SE - long if wedge breaks, short (or neutral call credit spreads) if failure to break wedge to upside
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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KY-AG 10
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7:52p, 7/30/21
AG
With AMZN tanking so spectacularly, am I crazy to think there's surely going to be some level of a bounce next week? Even if it sees a broader drop through mid August I feel like such a significant move up or down always seems to have a retracement.

In other news, can someone go poke WWR with a stick please. Get a nugget of rumor out there to drum up some volume!
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McInnis 03
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8:04p, 7/30/21
AG
Somebody swept $1mm tsla $700c for next Friday at close
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KY-AG 10
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8:18p, 7/30/21
AG
Last question for the night...
How does the board feel about strangle plays before earnings? With appropriate stop losses set for either direction of course
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$30,000 Millionaire
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In reply to KY-AG 10 • 8:51p, 7/30/21
AG
KY-AG 10 said:
Last question for the night...
How does the board feel about strangle plays before earnings? With appropriate stop losses set for either direction of course


Would have worked like a champ with Amazon
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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KY-AG 10
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 9:01p, 7/30/21
AG
If only...

Also the reason for the question
Thanks for the input.
Seeing Roku as another possibility for a strangle with its volatility the last week. Seems to beat earnings regularly but that hasn't stopped several tech stocks from selling off

I've generally stayed away from earnings, but the volatility just seems like something that could be capitalized on
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R-Dog
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10:30p, 7/30/21
AG
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$30,000 Millionaire
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In reply to KY-AG 10 • 11:22p, 7/30/21
AG
KY-AG 10 said:
If only...

Also the reason for the question
Thanks for the input.
Seeing Roku as another possibility for a strangle with its volatility the last week. Seems to beat earnings regularly but that hasn't stopped several tech stocks from selling off

I've generally stayed away from earnings, but the volatility just seems like something that could be capitalized on


To make money at earnings with that strategy, you have to exceed the expected move. With a strangle, it has to move enough to out pace the premium on both sides of the trade.

When I bet on earnings, I bet that it will stay within the expected move. Amazon absolutely kicked my ass with this.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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12:09a, 7/31/21
McInnis 03
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 8:41a, 7/31/21
AG
$30,000 Millionaire said:
KY-AG 10 said:
Last question for the night...
How does the board feel about strangle plays before earnings? With appropriate stop losses set for either direction of course


Would have worked like a champ with Amazon


I was this ****ing close to buying the atm call and put but it was $10k and I wasn't comfortable with that

The put closed at about $245
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McInnis 03
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8:52a, 7/31/21
AG
FJ and I were all over TSLA yesterday. Much like a coach watches game film to review the execution, I like to review a tickers day to see why it went the way it did. Here is a nice write on tsla behavior yesterday to put into the memory banks.



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Brewmaster
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In reply to KY-AG 10 • 9:17a, 7/31/21
AG
KY-AG 10 said:
Last question for the night...
How does the board feel about strangle plays before earnings? With appropriate stop losses set for either direction of course


Can do it with spreads and avoid crazy premiums and keep out of pocket much lower. Buy a put spread and a call spread. You can also go with different expirations if you feel stronger one way or the other. Same with quantity. You can go out a couple weeks as well to lessen risk.
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Brewmaster
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9:20a, 7/31/21
AG
Also nearly had a heart attack this morning when I saw I was assigned NIO on expiring spreads, until I then saw it was sold thereafter by my broker! That's a first for me. They went max gain, Whoop!
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Colt98
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3:49p, 7/31/21
AG
WDC. What's your thought FJ and others.
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JCRiley09
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4:56p, 7/31/21
AG
Lurker noob here again. The regulars here might still want to chime in, but the TexAgs search is super efficient when looking for thoughts on stocks. Just type in the ticker. As long as it isn't a normal word like JOB, you'll find every post easily.
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ProgN
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6:33p, 7/31/21


I was granted parole for good behavior. Sorry I was banned on SAVA's day. Let me just say that what happened is bull**** and I'll be adding more Monday because I think that it will open lower and probably close the day green. Miss you guys.
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ProgN
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In reply to JCRiley09 • 6:36p, 7/31/21
JCRiley09 said:
Lurker noob here again. The regulars here might still want to chime in, but the TexAgs search is super efficient when looking for thoughts on stocks. Just type in the ticker. As long as it isn't a normal word like JOB, you'll find every post easily.
Thank you and if you ever have questions, unless it's about a Model T, then please ask because that's how we all learn. Not being an ass but the Model T explanation is on page 1 and used to come up all the time.
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Whitehouse Road
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In reply to ProgN • 7:37p, 7/31/21
AG
Prognightmare said:
Let me just say that what happened is bull**** and I'll be adding more Monday because I think that it will open lower and probably close the day green. Miss you guys.
Silver lining, it let those of us late to the party another chance to start a position.
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ProgN
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In reply to Whitehouse Road • 7:46p, 7/31/21
White House Road said:
Prognightmare said:
Let me just say that what happened is bull**** and I'll be adding more Monday because I think that it will open lower and probably close the day green. Miss you guys.
Silver lining, it let those of us late to the party another chance to start a position.
Correct! This one may go lower and not immediately climb but their update of the phase 3 trial hit on all cylinders. The test group showed improvement at the 9 month mark and that's big, with no side effects. I believe they'll get FDA approval when this is phase 3 is over. It may be in 10 months, but ignore the emotion and wait because I think you'll be rewarded.
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Brewmaster
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In reply to Whitehouse Road • 9:16p, 7/31/21
AG
White House Road said:
Prognightmare said:
Let me just say that what happened is bull**** and I'll be adding more Monday because I think that it will open lower and probably close the day green. Miss you guys.
Silver lining, it let those of us late to the party another chance to start a position.
Yep, same here, I bought a bunch on Friday. I don't care if they drop it some more, this is a long long hold for me.
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FJ43
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In reply to ProgN • 9:22p, 7/31/21
Prognightmare said:


I was granted parole for good behavior. Sorry I was banned on SAVA's day. Let me just say that what happened is bull**** and I'll be adding more Monday because I think that it will open lower and probably close the day green. Miss you guys.
Welcome back bro! I even dedicated the day to you and wondered if you were in banned camp.
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Brewmaster
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9:33p, 7/31/21
AG
this guy is always bullish markets, bearish UVXY... very interesting to see him say this. guess it's time for me to add some volatility verticals.

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FJ43
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In reply to Colt98 • 9:44p, 7/31/21
Colt98 said:
WDC. What's your thought FJ and others.
Really rough from and iPad and a fat finger so far from precise.

Just my 2 cents with a quick look.
  • Held the 200 EMA
  • Consolidating here but having trouble through this level drawn.
  • IMO really needs at least a day 1 close above it. Continuation in a day 2 even better.
  • Rejected at 12 EMA
  • Came off -3ATR but hasn't made it back to the mean yet. That's about the 21EMA (yellow).

If me I'm willing to miss the move over resistance to make sure I don't get caught in a fake break above.
If the markets get weak this could see the 200 again and there's a lot of room below.

I can take a better look from my normal setup tomorrow and look longer back.



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