I would laugh but I guess they are serious.. still going laugh

LOS ANGELES COUNTY REINSTATES MASK MANDATE: Nation's largest county to require masks indoors even for fully vaccinated people

— Breaking911 (@Breaking911) July 15, 2021

I cannot manage the entries and exits for you guys but I can make some lotto suggestions if you would like.

OutlawAG04 said:

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I would laugh but I guess they are serious.. still going laugh

LOS ANGELES COUNTY REINSTATES MASK MANDATE: Nation's largest county to require masks indoors even for fully vaccinated people

— Breaking911 (@Breaking911) July 15, 2021

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This is my last straw. Looking for a new job out of this state tonight.

SNOW 255C
NIO 44C
NVDA 765C
COIN 231C

I'll post this tonight since FJ is out. This is what Dan's PS60 crew is watching tomorrow. He sends this out every night to all the members. I'm focusing on Amazon and Nvidia. Not in front of my computer but here is what I am looking at.

AMZN 3600p on the 3619 break. I believe model T was 3604ish last time I checked. That'd be a good first target with measured move to about 3550 (20 SMA/21 Ema) though don't hold full size expecting to get there.

NVDA 745p or 750p on the 753 break. Think model T was around 700ish so the next support would be daily bollinger band around 725. That'd be the measured move. Take profit along the way.

Just some ideas.

Hope y'all survived the day. Didn't get a chance to read all the posts but did see 30k provided some lotto possibilities.

I'm going to miss lotto Friday with y'all.

Anyway....
Did a quick review of some stocks from my iPad for y'all so this is rough but a maybe.

LOW
197.5, ATM or +1 calls
Didn't get to see the Greeks on it but if it goes it'll go IMO.

Had relative strength today despite the markets. Better yet it closed strong.
Over 196.75 and think it makes a breakout. Needs to confirm today's high then get through 196.75 to run.

Just a rough thought. Hope it confirms and works.

I think we have a 3am drop and open around 4300 only to close at 4350. Bull trap, bear trap, bull trap. Next week SPX, IWM, and ASAN will all hit all-time highs yet all of my longs will be down somehow. Then my wife will announce she's pregnant and my truck will be stolen from a grocery store parking lot.

Tomas Hermensa said:

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I think we have a 3am drop and open around 4300 only to close at 4350. Bull trap, bear trap, bull trap. Next week SPX, IWM, and ASAN will all hit all-time highs yet all of my longs will be down somehow. Then my wife will announce she's pregnant and my truck will be stolen from a grocery store parking lot.

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You're starting to sound like me. Be brave.

spud1910 said:

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Good morning FJ.

Travel safely!

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Morning and thanks! Headed up to see the Ark and Museum today.

Beautiful country around here.

Friday Macros

Hot Summer Friday...Expect Low Volumes? Mild Bear Steepening...Equities Higher

Powell HH testimony has come and gone... He was less dovish yesterday in front of the Senate, then he was in the House...Could have been the different questions and focus... Nonetheless it did not stop treasuries from rallying into the afternoon, trying to break the next resistances of 1.30 in 10 years and 1.92 in bonds.. They got through it marginally but did not sustain it... Overnight you never saw those closes as mild selling took over...we do not expect a lot of volatility today as it will be a hot day in the northeast from NY to Maine... And it is the summer.

Today we have retail sales which will be weak, more from the lack of cars for sale and other supply chain issues and then Michigan sentiment... Flows have been much more important to watch than economic numbers... As John Authors titles his BB report today
"Falling Bond Yields Are an Unsolved Conundrum: John Authers"...

He goes on to ask " Why do yields continue to fall on the back of US Consumer Price numbers that are the highest in decades?.... John the answer is easy, and it is not just more buyers than sellers... The Fed buying continues to take most, if not all, of the treasury and mortgage issuance... Way too much than it should... Now we are starting to see the potential built in of reduced issuance, even though we are talking a 4 trillion infrastructure plan... The economy is booming and tax revenues are soaring, so the treasury may reduce the amount of issuance, while the Fed still gorges on buying... Fears are developing that if the September 30 deadline for the elimination of Fed supplemental job insurance ends along with the moratorium of student loan payments, rent moratoriums, and house foreclosure... It will get nasty very fast... Does anyone think renters, who have not been paying , will come up with 30,000 back rent due? So inflation, transitory or not, whatever transitory means, will not be the focal point.

Years ago we worked with a colleague who used to use the tell me when things moved in a strange way that it was the "rule of unintended consequences". So when we saw this last night ,in one of the many reports we read, that the treasury department has asked holders of large positions in old 10 year notes to identify themselves, we were alerted that some manipulation was going on... Gee given the recent volatility, we were not surprised... The treasury uses these rules developed in the 1990's to guard against market manipulation, which is much easier these days given the Fed is vacuuming up treasuries like a big Hoover machine... These results have to be disclosed by July 22... It may be nothing but it could lead to selling and some push-back from treasuries... Just a thought

Corporates... Two of the big boys came to market yesterday with about 16 billion between them..MS and BOA... These bonds were swapped, which may have been some of the reason we spiked in treasury prices in the afternoon... This brings the week to date to just under 30 billion...in Junk, 4 deals were priced , bring another 3 billion to market, the weekly issuance is 7+billion... We expect a mega Carnival deal next week... Heck, if you can issue CCC in at an average of 5.74 or HY under 4% at an average of 3.81... Do it... We saw some widening of credit yesterday as the OAS of all cash bonds on BB widened 2.1 basis to 92... As my colleague, likes to say... "Credit Strong Like Bull"... So far he has been right.

Housing Bubble? Yep... It is enough of a concern that Powell and Yellen meet today along with other regulators.... There are big differences in Housing from 2006 and today... First, people are less leveraged with lots of liquidity... And something one of our colleagues explained to us earlier in the week, that individual corporations, like a Blackstone, are in there buying individual homes...crazy, until you look at all of the ridiculous high priced assets out there... Stocks for one... But as Gundlach said clearly yesterday in his interview with Judge on CNBC... Compared to bonds, stocks look good....Housing looks better

We were asked yesterday by our old college buddy, who just retired after managing one of the bigger universities portfolio, to start to think where rates and equities will be in 5-10 years... That is a challenge, when sometimes we don't know where they will be in 5-10 minutes... So we will give it a thought over the weekend... But there is a lot to factor in...demographics... Inflation... Flows..global deflation... But we will think about it... As for today we expect it to be quiet and range bound... 10 years would take a lot to close through 1.30 and long bond 1.92, but it could happen..... Have a good weekend

Tomas Hermensa said:

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NRD09 said:

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Premarket bear trap, bull trap, bear trap, close flat?
Let's get to scalping, boys!
Wish i had a headdress i could break out to make up for today's lack of fj headwear

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Now I'm thinking the day will go bull trap, bear trap, beer trap. T&P.

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bull trap, bear trap, beer tap...