CHWY

I say let's just fill that gap and ALL go fishing. Ok I will accept $93.90.

Blue vertical is 7/16 for the 85C play.

There is no reason I see this shouldn't go as long as macros hold up.

I want to see a move like late 2020 and early 2021.

$30,000 Millionaire said:

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I think ultra tactical trading should be the way right now.

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Agree. I have morphed into that the past 6 weeks to bring my blood pressure down and get back some sanity.

slacker00 said:

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What's the decision process for selling puts vs buying calls in the situation you describe?

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selling puts only requires sideways movements for max profit. Buying calls requires upwards movement to exceed the intrinsic value of the option.

Example:

• If I sell puts, I am break-even or better as long as CWH closes above $35.5 at expiration if I sell the $38 put. I earn max profit if CWH closes at or above $38. CWH can sell off 10% between now and then, and I still make money. even if it closes below the strike, I can take possession of the shares and then sell covered calls. Hard to lose this way
• if I buy a call, I assumed 42C for a like for like situation, CWH has to close at or above 44.30 (42C + 2.30 intrinsic value or premium of the call). Now, if CWH goes bonkers and goes to $50, I'll make $5.70 in profit. But what do you think the odds are of that?

I gave back half my winning last from this week today getting caught on the wrong side of some SPY puts. I was certain we would see a dump today but it just kept going up

Yes thanks for the response. I know the mechanics of the options, just trying to figure out the situation. I'm guessing with that explanation if you are trying to nail the reversal but it takes a little while to develop or it continues further before coming back the short puts gives you more room for error. Since theta is working against you on the long call you want to already be going with the flow when using them. Is that a reasonable summary?

AG 2000' said:

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FJ43 said:

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Well we made it through the week.

Hope everyone had a good day with the AAPL & PYPL lottos today. They don't always work out but we've had some good ones lately.

I can do a few charts over the next few days if y'all have any to check out.

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ARKW
DS
IMMR
NIO

Please.

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NIO and I aren't friends right now. He bit me today so we aren't talking again.

Rejected by 21EMA & ATR mean.
Lost trend line.

I guess if it doesn't reclaim those it could retest the 50 EMA around 43.80 or the SR level just below it...again.

Just my two cents but I am biased until Monday.

agdaddy04 said:

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is PETZ one I need to lick my wounds on and just dump?

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.

Can't say what others are doing, but the last time the MACD crossed the signal like this, my NASDAQ heavy mutual fund tanked. I'm holding CLOV, WWR, and a few other mutual funds. Rest is cash until the end of the month for me.

AG 2000' said:

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FJ43 said:

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Well we made it through the week.

Hope everyone had a good day with the AAPL & PYPL lottos today. They don't always work out but we've had some good ones lately.

I can do a few charts over the next few days if y'all have any to check out.

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ARKW
DS
IMMR
NIO

Please.

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ARKW

Hmmmm....interesting.

This has potential IMO.

Break the inner wedge and entry.
Watch 152.41ish SR level then if breaks the outer trend line it could go.

Watch for 5/8 EMA cross.

Irish 2.0 said:

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I like how everyone in here on PS60 is outing themselves on the chat right now.

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What'd I miss?

slacker00 said:

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Yes thanks for the response. I know the mechanics of the options, just trying to figure out the situation. I'm guessing with that explanation if you are trying to nail the reversal but it takes a little while to develop or it continues further before coming back the short puts gives you more room for error. Since theta is working against you on the long call you want to already be going with the flow when using them. Is that a reasonable summary?

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to give a better technical explanation. While $CWH is in its channel, selling puts is a higher probability trade. If CWH breaks its channel to the upside with a daily close outside the descending channel, I would buy at the money or in the money calls 60 days out to hopefully get the full move.

$30,000 Millionaire said:

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FJ43 said:

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CrazyRichAggie said:

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Friends don't let friends drink and chart

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Just don't take any ideas or levels seriously in an hour or so.

Nah....I promised my wife of almost 30 years she would never see me with a hangover again and that was the night before our wedding .

Not once since.

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I really only drink at social events, and even then I limit it to small amounts. I like to be in full command of my faculties at all times.

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Same.

My wife and I enjoy sitting outside at one of the local brewery's now and then to relax or a cold beer by the river. That is pretty much the extent for us.

Made our kids a promise when they were Freshman and Jr in high school at the time we would not touch one drop of alcohol if they didn't until they were of legal age. A lot of peer pressure out there. Not one drop for us for 6 years..

I like a cold beer now and then though.

This is what makes it hard for me right now.

If I am guessing 3rd QTR decent pullback. Maybe late Aug/Sept or Oct after summer travel season and credit card bills start to flow in and government printing of endless free money stops/slows.

$30,000 Millionaire said:

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Part 2 of that. I thought we were getting overbought and I thought we would have more trouble with the 161.8% fib from the recent swing high to swing low. When we closed above the 4330 level, I thought there would be a high probability failure or close below the 161.8% fib. We tested below it twice. Yesterday's action was very bearish and a perfect bear trap for me. When we closed under the 50% fib retracement of the current swing and close to the 161.8 of the swing before that, I thought this was a confluence of factors that would drive us to a mean reversal. Let alone how far above the 8/21 we have been for a long time. Now that we've soared past a full retracement today with a new ATH, I don't see anything stopping us until 4450 - 4500.

I am so upset because this SHOULD have dumped. Now, it is bullish consolidation at ATH. I still think the fed call will show up and I do think a wave down (market moves in waves) has to happen. I am not an Elliot Waver, but they know what they're doing.

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Yes I recently began looking into Elliot Wave and man that's interesting followed a couple of them on twitter that do charts.

$30,000 Millionaire said:

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this is fantastic analysis.

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We will bust those lines because everyone expects rejection

way too kind - thank you.

Thanks. It's much needed. I try to surround myself with older mentors. It is har. My wife had mentioned the other day that our kids out the first generation that can just sit and watch tv all day. With Netflix, Disney plus, etc, they can literally just sit and watch episode after episode. You have to battle with that, $RBLX, Nintendo switch etc. The hardest part for us is our kids have friends in the neighborhood and their parents are way more relaxed on screen time than we are.

CrazyRichAggie said:

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Thanks. It's much needed. I try to surround myself with older mentors. It is har. My wife had mentioned the other day that our kids out the first generation that can just sit and watch tv all day. With Netflix, Disney plus, etc, they can literally just sit and watch episode after episode. You have to battle with that, $RBLX, Nintendo switch etc. The hardest part for us is our kids have friends in the neighborhood and their parents are way more relaxed on screen time than we are.

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Its tough man. Even back when ours were younger we had those battles. Video games and TV. I grew up outdoors and spending most of my time ranching. So tried to make sure my sons understood hard work, carrying your own water with those other things as rewards.

I feel for y'all today with how accessible technology is at every step.

FJ43 said:

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CrazyRichAggie said:

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FJ43 said:

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$30,000 Millionaire said:

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FJ43 said:

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CrazyRichAggie said:

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Friends don't let friends drink and chart

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Just don't take any ideas or levels seriously in an hour or so.

Nah....I promised my wife of almost 30 years she would never see me with a hangover again and that was the night before our wedding .

Not once since.

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I really only drink at social events, and even then I limit it to small amounts. I like to be in full command of my faculties at all times.

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Same.

My wife and I enjoy sitting outside at one of the local brewery's now and then to relax or a cold beer by the river. That is pretty much the extent for us.

Made our kids a promise when they were Freshman and Jr in high school at the time we would not touch one drop of alcohol if they didn't until they were of legal age. A lot of peer pressure out there. Not one drop for us for 6 years..

I like a cold beer now and then though.

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I really like that idea. We have 5 kids all under the age of 10, so I need a glass of wine and/or beer just to calm my nerves. It's that or get on prescription drugs.

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Mine are both married now. I CANNOT imagine raising kids in today's environment.

I pray for this group every morning and y'alls family and leadership in your homes is part of that.

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Thanks FJ! I agree. My daughter is 25 now and step son is 32; glad I am not just starting out as a parent. It is interesting the approaches different people take. My parents had the idea that forbidden fruit is the sweetest. So they told my sister and me we could drink if we wanted, but the first time had to be at home with them so we knew how it affected us in a safe environment. That got me through 7 years at A&M as a teetotaler in the 1980s. Not sure it would work today.