BCTX

Never heard of it but DAMN

Wednesday Macros.

Stocks/Treasuries Range Bound As Market Awaits Fed and NonFarm


We do not expect to see much fireworks until we get the employment number on Friday... Expect 10 year treasuries to stay in a narrow range of 1.58-1.64... Continue to watch the 5 year as that will be where tapering has the most effect. If 5 years can close decisively through .78, that will be meaningful. There are 4 Fed speakers today... Two hawks, Kaplan and Harker, who want to see tapering talk start at the June meeting.. And two doves, Evans and Bostic... Fed Beige book comes out, but there should be no surprises, shortages of labor and a strong economy... The ADP number comes out tomorrow because of the holiday shortened week...

Yesterday the markets started out with risk on movements, encompassing animal spirits to start the last month of the quarter...Bcom (Bloomberg commodities) had that highest close since 2015, crude broke above 67 (68 now), there was limit up action in grains, the French CAC hit it highest intra-day print in 21 years, and the Canadian TSX (oil) rose above 20000... The yield curve saw some aggressive steepening... But it then stalled... Commodities came off their highs, treasuries ground back, equities lost their gains... So where are we now?.. Markets are flat with neither stocks or bonds being able to do much... Hence the Friday payrolls are where this weeks sustainable move will be... If we see nonfarm numbers greater that 750,000, which is what we expect, and some wage inflation, then tapering talk starts at the June meeting... If the non farm number is less than 500,000 then take the summer off and come back August 26 for the Jackson Hole conference.

Credit... Strong as a rock... 8 billion of new IG came out yesterday and was priced without concessions... The TD offering was very narrow... There continues to be good demand for high yield and Junk, where the former is yielding 4.04 and the later, CCC, 6.02... The scary fact is that as one goes out the credit curve the long end is supposed to be steeper, the further you go down the credit curve.. The 10/30 credit curve has become eerily uniform across the 5 major quality buckets.

California... Our muni desk talks of the lack of supply in the muni market and the narrowing of munis to the treasury curve... Trading through the curve at unsustainable ratios... Now we see that California has too much money and lawmakers are talking about paying 1 billion of debt service early... Prepaying some of the debt service due in 2023... We think they should be issuing given the higher rates on the horizon... But that is us.

We see that Janet Yellen had a frank exchange with Vice Premier Liu on many topics, including trade and the currency... That is probably behind the move that China made over the weekend forcing banks to reduce the amount of money that can invest in Yuan, in order to devalue the Yuan, or more likely to support the dollar, which was been trending lower over the last few months... Where the offshore Yuan has gone from 7.12 to the dollar, on June 4,2020< to now being 6.38 (after bouncing off 6.35)

with AMC doing what it's doing (and the CEO embracing the crowd, this is a KEY difference in the other meme stocks) I'd expect other meme's to get some love. I want to see if other CEO's embrace it.

AMC announced today a stockholder app that allows you to register to receive updates and when you do, you get a free large popcorn at the theater. Aron realizes his ownership is now diverse and separated, and to do more share sales he needs shareholder votes......which means he needs to be able to reach them.

Question on options ... I'm in some AMC and BB call options. I know these will pop at open given the premarket trading. I often wait too long to sell and loose the opening pop. I am assuming the safest way to manage is to take my earnings at opening. Any advice?

H-town ag said:

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Question on options ... I'm in some AMC and BB call options. I know these will pop at open given the premarket trading. I often wait too long to sell and loose the opening pop. I am assuming the safest way to manage is to take my earnings at opening. Any advice?

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No one ever went broke taking profit. You can always leave a one flyer behind to help mentally feel better. I own 1 share of GME at $269 and I'm ok with just letting it sit there.

Quote:

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California... Our muni desk talks of the lack of supply in the muni market and the narrowing of munis to the treasury curve... Trading through the curve at unsustainable ratios... Now we see that California has too much money and lawmakers are talking about paying 1 billion of debt service early... Prepaying some of the debt service due in 2023... We think they should be issuing given the higher rates on the horizon... But that is us.

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BOOM!

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BREwmaster said:

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Doge moonshot, wow. Volume poured into it. Tic supposedly called it at .33, now at .44, but I think only for his paying subs. Any of you pay for his sub?

When the markets pullback (soon) this thing is going back to the .20's.

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Dude, it's all a ruse. Tic has no pay forum. His telegram is free.

McInnis 03 said:

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BREwmaster said:

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Doge moonshot, wow. Volume poured into it. Tic supposedly called it at .33, now at .44, but I think only for his paying subs. Any of you pay for his sub?

When the markets pullback (soon) this thing is going back to the .20's.

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Dude, it's all a ruse. Tic has no pay forum. His telegram is free.

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Ahhhh, okay, makes sense now.

his levels are legit though it seems, right?