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$30,000 Millionaire
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In reply to FJ43 • 6:24p, 5/19/21
AG
sorry, sir.

Here are the options available to Crazy, in no particular order

  • Sell long options tomorrow, ideally on strength, likely for a loss unless we get a crazy gap up move
  • Sell a short call at a lower strike price to create a call credit spread like the 414 for $0.81. It lowers his loss from $2.15 to $1.34 if SPY closes below $414. If SPY closes above 415 416, his total loss is an additional $1.19. I probably definitely wouldn't do this
  • Sell a short call at a higher strike price to create a call debit spread like the 418 for $0.19. From crazy's current position, that lowers his total carry forward risk to an additional $0.15 and lowers his total loss to a maximum of $1.96. If magic happens and SPY closes at 418, crazy will have a total profit of $0.05 at current prices. If there is strength tomorrow, this may be more attractive
  • Turn the position into a short iron condor by create a call credit spread and a put credit spread. If he followed the aggressive strategy, he can get $0.81 for the 414 short call and around $1 for the 2-wide put credit spread for a total of $1.81 in credit. If the iron condor closes between the strikes and is max profit, Crazy lowers his loss to $0.34. If Crazy has max loss on the iron condor ($2 - credit received), he risked an additional $0.19 for a total max loss of $2.34 including both the condor and the original trade

Edit: math was wrong, forgot he bought the 416 vs 415
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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BrokeAssAggie
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 6:29p, 5/19/21
I will have really study this one. Thanks teaching and spelling it out.

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Ragoo
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 6:32p, 5/19/21
AG
$30,000 Millionaire said:
sorry, sir.

Here are the options available to Crazy, in no particular order

  • Sell long options tomorrow, ideally on strength, likely for a loss unless we get a crazy gap up move
  • Sell a short call at a lower strike price to create a call credit spread like the 414 for $0.81. It lowers his loss from $2.15 to $1.34 if SPY closes below $414. If SPY closes above 415, his total loss is an additional $.19. I probably wouldn't do this
  • Sell a short call at a higher strike price to create a call debit spread like the 418 for $0.19. From crazy's current position, that lowers his total carry forward risk to an additional $0.15 and lowers his total loss to a maximum of $1.96. If magic happens and SPY closes at 418, crazy will have a total profit of $0.05
  • Turn the position into a short iron condor by create a call credit spread and a put credit spread. If he followed the aggressive strategy, he can get $0.81 for the 414 short call and around $1 for the 2-wide put credit spread for a total of $1.81 in credit. If the iron condor closes between the strikes and is max profit, Crazy lowers his loss to $0.34. If Crazy has max loss on the iron condor ($2 - credit received), he risked an additional $0.19 for a total max loss of $2.34 including both the condor and the original trade

Sell 310c and 310p
Buy 304p

Collect 4.00

New break even is (4.00-2.14) = 1.86 or range from 408.14 to 411.86.

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FJ43
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 6:34p, 5/19/21
No need to apologize brother. Appreciate you laying that out and makes everyone that much stronger. Good stuff!
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BrokeAssAggie
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In reply to Ragoo • 6:36p, 5/19/21
So here you are holding everything past expiration just collecting the premiums to minimize losses, correct?

This makes me realize I'm still very green playing options. Really appreciate both y'all's input
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Ragoo
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In reply to BrokeAssAggie • 6:39p, 5/19/21
AG
CrazyRichAggie said:
So here you are holding everything past expiration on just collecting the premiums to minimize losses, correct?
in my example you could turn the losing 2.14-0.80 into a profit of 1.86 if you pin the SPY right on 410. And you have a break even equal to the delta in the premium collected versus already paid. Unlikely however.
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Ragoo
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 6:42p, 5/19/21
AG
Where are you seeing $1 for a $2wide put credit? I am seeing like $0.30.
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BrokeAssAggie
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In reply to Ragoo • 6:43p, 5/19/21
Gotcha. My plan was to just hope SPY has a nice little run in the morning and sell my calls for ~50% loss vs a ~85% loss.
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FJ43
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In reply to BrokeAssAggie • 6:56p, 5/19/21
CrazyRichAggie said:
Gotcha. My plan was to just hope SPY has a nice little run in the morning and sell my calls for ~50% loss vs a ~85% loss.

If it's a weekly play consider getting out of the trade for a scratch or small loss if breaks down. You can always buy back in should it reconfirm.
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$30,000 Millionaire
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In reply to Ragoo • 7:08p, 5/19/21
AG
Ragoo said:
Where are you seeing $1 for a $2wide put credit? I am seeing like $0.30.


I was looking at the TOS option chain.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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Charismatic Megafauna
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8:34p, 5/19/21
AG
Here's what i would do, surprised nobody's mentioned this strategy:

Diamond hand those bishes. Hope and dream about what you'll buy if spy runs to 430 by expiry. Watch market fly and your calls double then 4 and 5x tomorrow morning, then bleed and pin at 415.99 crushing your dreams, then spend twice what you paid for them in somewhat decent scotch over the course of the weekend (not good Scotch. Good Scotch is for winners)

Actually if they went itm by expiry I'd probably sell 417s or 418s against them. And if they drop below .50 or so i usually just hold them as lottos until they expire worthless

I kicked ass today though. As i was waiting on a meeting and this morning's bloodbath started to settle i eyeballed 210 as model t. Bought expiring 209 calls for .42 i think? Got out of meeting and sold half for 1.2ish. 2:30 decided i didn't want to spend the next 30 minutes watching candles and sold the rest for .9

Also crwd building up steam getting ready to blow past 200
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Mostly Foggy Recollection
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9:39p, 5/19/21
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Killin Me Smalls
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In reply to Mostly Foggy Recollection • 10:02p, 5/19/21
AG
I read it's a relatively small hedge position though.
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Mostly Foggy Recollection
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In reply to Killin Me Smalls • 10:13p, 5/19/21
I'll have to sift through his 13F filing to figure the total.
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ryanhnc10
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10:13p, 5/19/21
AG
Anyone have a strong opinion on AYX for a longer term hold?
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Rice and Fries
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In reply to Killin Me Smalls • 10:33p, 5/19/21
Killin Me Smalls said:
I read it's a relatively small hedge position though.


It could have very likely been back when the treasury was trending at 1.25-1.30% earlier this year before jumping up. He's a freaking smart dude though who generally pencils out ideas that work. I don't get it.
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0708aggie
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10:56p, 5/19/21
AG
https://whalewisdom.com/filer/scion-asset-management-llc#tabholdings_tab_link

12% of his portfolio in TLT. That's short treasuries
4% call on TBT ultrashort
.48% shares TBT
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wjbrown88
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In reply to 0708aggie • 11:45p, 5/19/21
0708aggie said:
https://whalewisdom.com/filer/scion-asset-management-llc#tabholdings_tab_link

12% of his portfolio in TLT. That's short treasuries
4% call on TBT ultrashort
.48% shares TBT
Yeah.... that's not small. ha
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Mr President Elect
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In reply to Charismatic Megafauna • 11:56p, 5/19/21
AG
NRD09 said:
Here's what i would do, surprised nobody's mentioned this strategy:

Diamond hand those bishes. Hope and dream about what you'll buy if spy runs to 430 by expiry. Watch market fly and your calls double then 4 and 5x tomorrow morning, then bleed and pin at 415.99 crushing your dreams, then spend twice what you paid for them in somewhat decent scotch over the course of the weekend (not good Scotch. Good Scotch is for winners)


It's like you're reading directly from my trading playbook. One of my go-to moves for sure!
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FJ43
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3:25a, 5/20/21

Mornun....

A little mixed this morning with ES slightly red and NQ slightly green. Was hoping for some movement up.
No major move either direction.
VIX is still over 22
SKEW rose to 143.75 which has been a place to make sure you are hedged.

The close felt good yesterday but I remain cautious for either direction to play out.
Would really like to see a rally not sold off shortly after.
Volatility is still too high for me to get comfortable so could see more chop again today with OPEX week.

If need be I'll break out the rally Resistol but may save it for tomorrow.

Until then trade wisely!



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FJ43
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5:50a, 5/20/21

KIQ

Posted this a few days ago to keep an eye on.

  • Broke the downtrend yesterday. Had some volume yesterday to break it.
  • Opening above the 21EMA currently and at a resistance level.
  • Could see move to 200 day around $0.76 which is resistance.
  • 50 & 100 day about $0.80
  • MT around $0.89
  • MACD cross
  • SAR cross


Might buy some if I can get .69/.70 as a trade back to MT and keep some net free shares similar to how I trade CIDM and DNN. Won't chase it.






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FJ43
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6:01a, 5/20/21

One of my favorite technical patterns for swing trading, accumulating net free shares and generating cash flow. Just be aware of which way the Darvas Box began.




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BrokeAssAggie
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6:26a, 5/20/21
This time yesterday SPY was down over 1%, feel like I'm already winning today with it only down 0.18%
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FJ43
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In reply to BrokeAssAggie • 6:29a, 5/20/21
CrazyRichAggie said:
This time yesterday SPY was down over 1%, feel like I'm already winning today with it only down 0.18%
R2G day I suspect but choppy. VIX just keep to calm itself down.
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cgh1999
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6:46a, 5/20/21
AG
I'm not sure I will ever understand how a stock responds after earnings. Kohls killed it and revised projections upwardsand they're down 5%. I'm going to buy more here. This is dumb.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2021/05/20/kohls-kss-q1-2021-earnings-beat.html
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Ragoo
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6:59a, 5/20/21
AG
Predict we move green today and trade sideways tomorrow.
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McInnis 03
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7:28a, 5/20/21
AG
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FJ43
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7:28a, 5/20/21

SPY Scalping

My starting plan....

My range I have today is between 406.24 and 413.40/413.82. Levels in between those.
Don't think we get past that 413.80ish level and hope we defend 406. Rejection at 413.80ish and I load ATM puts.

Anything move below 405.33 intraday and I pretty much will move bets to normal sized puts focus plays and 1/2 sized calls intraday.
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LOYAL AG
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In reply to cgh1999 • 7:30a, 5/20/21
AG
cgh1999 said:
I'm not sure I will ever understand how a stock responds after earnings. Kohls killed it and revised projections upwardsand they're down 5%. I'm going to buy more here. This is dumb.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2021/05/20/kohls-kss-q1-2021-earnings-beat.html
IMO we're in an era where info is so readily available it's easier than ever to buy the rumor and sell the news. Analyst expectations were that $KSS would have a great earnings and it was bought up prior to the announcement. What we end up seeing these days is a run up, a sell off for a few days, then another runup that reflects the future expectations based on the good earnings.
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Ccutamu
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In reply to FJ43 • 7:45a, 5/20/21
FJ43 said:

SPY Scalping

My starting plan....

My range I have today is between 406.24 and 413.40/413.82. Levels in between those.
Don't think we get past that 413.80ish level and hope we defend 406. Rejection at 413.80ish and I load ATM puts.

Anything move below 405.33 intraday and I pretty much will move bets to normal sized puts focus plays and 1/2 sized calls intraday.
FJ...what type of return do you look for when scalping?
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FJ43
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In reply to Ccutamu • 7:57a, 5/20/21
Ccutamu said:
FJ43 said:

SPY Scalping

My starting plan....

My range I have today is between 406.24 and 413.40/413.82. Levels in between those.
Don't think we get past that 413.80ish level and hope we defend 406. Rejection at 413.80ish and I load ATM puts.

Anything move below 405.33 intraday and I pretty much will move bets to normal sized puts focus plays and 1/2 sized calls intraday.
FJ...what type of return do you look for when scalping?
As much as I can get. Just kidding.

SPY only.....

I focus on trading levels not return $ or %. What has helped me is to not pay attention to the Daily P&L, $ or %. When I focus on that I make bad/emotional vs. technical decisions. I actually covered that with a post it note one day just to test the mentality of that. I know I have loose screws...

I've have learned in scalping to focus on trading SR levels the math works out just fine. Key is cutting when trade trend breaks. When I break the cut rule I have to work 2X as hard to get back to breakeven. Do not hope in this game.

Keep losses small and gains larger/consistent.

Have been averaging about 20% a day as long as I maintain discipline on cuts and scaling out. On occasion larger when I can leave a runner.
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$30,000 Millionaire
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7:57a, 5/20/21
AG
Bad news = good for stonks
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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Ferris Wheel Allstar
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8:03a, 5/20/21
AG
ONTX offering a reverse stock split
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McInnis 03
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8:06a, 5/20/21
AG
We may be in a gap filling mood on SPY.......been long on the paper account since about 6am (was at 4am but got shook, I'd be soooooooooo green if I didn't), and it's been all up since then.
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gougler08
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In reply to Ferris Wheel Allstar • 8:09a, 5/20/21
AG
Ferris Wheel Allstar said:
ONTX offering a reverse stock split


Dumb
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