So according to that short term example, we're in for a mixed day on Monday, and a big gainer on Tuesday?

cageybee77 said:

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So according to that short term example, we're in for a mixed day on Monday, and a big gainer on Tuesday?

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I'm watching for a pull Monday, but will be open minded

Keep an eye on these too.

Technically speaking. Just my opinion trading wise not long term wise.

I traded SPY to the short side most of the week successfully. Friday I believe we had a clear pivot/reversal to bullish trend however I think we will still have some back test before a run back to 420+.

My guess likely back test not below 411-412 ranges. Technically I see 414s.

I added some June SPY puts into close as trades not full hedges.

As of close I added SPY...
5/17 415P - small as a trade
6/14 380P - small/medium

I expect to play long most of next week, after 417.50ish confirmation and will play any chop to 420+. But will remain flexible.

FJ, when you are scalping SPY options how do you determine the strike and expiration?

Glitch said:

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FJ, when you are scalping SPY options how do you determine the strike and expiration?

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Scalping I'm almost always close to at money or 1-2 out heading to next support/resistance level. Friday I move to following week other than lottos.

Thanks!

I think the SPY is over-extended to historical trend. Beginning las November. We should be trading in the 370-380 range. Without a catalyst I think a healthy market capitulates around 400 for the next 4-6 months. If we have another burst above 420 we will be even more parabolic make the pain worse when it comes.

A lot of the smaller cap, bio, and tech plays in this thread have been sold off as S&P grinded higher recently. Hopefully capital will slosh back into those growth/spec plays if the indexes sell off.

Ultimately, I'm in the camp of a major correction once it becomes apparent Powell is gonna try to let economy stand on its own 2 feet. I think people underestimate the debt taken on in some of the "reopening" or "epicenter" stocks. I think the Fed is gonna try to give them more time to clean up balance sheet before raising rates. Otherwise, there will be a massive wave of Ch 11 restructuring of all that debt as interest payments outstrip cash flows.

I think it's way over-bought as well. What I'm wondering is what will be the "stimulus" for a major pull-back - interest rates? Even the covid crash couldn't kill the "irrational exuberance" for long. It's seems to me, as long as people have the "let's buy crypto-currencies" mentality (they simply aren't very afraid of losing their money) the exuberance will continue. We've seen that actual earnings don't matter as much these days - it's all about potential.....which is a guess (educated or not). Maybe we have to see companies start to fail (massive wave of chapt 11 restructuring). Is it possible that the level of the stock market isn't as disproportionate to the amount of cash currently available to invest in it as we think? I dunno.

Yeah I've felt that for several years now people (myself included) are happy to just blindly throw money into the market; it's completely divorced from fundamentals.

The market itself is valuable simply because we all want it to be. Can't last forever, but I do think it's going to take a catastrophic failure to stop the blind enthusiasm.

Stewie flexing!

Show me how many traders on twitter took their kids' investment account from $45,000 and turned it into $2.4 mil in less than 18 months.
If you gonna talk behind my back then I hope you can at least post your returns. Always been transparent with my followers thru good and bad pic.twitter.com/pva0nloBpY

— Traderstewie (@traderstewie) May 15, 2021

I don't think you need much. Just money moving out of S&P names and into small cap, metals, etc. you don't need a black swan event. Just a broader belief that S&P names are at max value proposition.

It makes "sense" that it would happen that way given today's "blind" enthusiasm - small caps potentially offer a bigger reward than S&P names. Closer to crypto. But what's the biggest influence - individuals or institutional investors? I guess it depends on the individual stock?

Irish 2.0 said:

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McInnis 03 said:

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Stewie flexing!

Show me how many traders on twitter took their kids' investment account from $45,000 and turned it into $2.4 mil in less than 18 months.
If you gonna talk behind my back then I hope you can at least post your returns. Always been transparent with my followers thru good and bad pic.twitter.com/pva0nloBpY

— Traderstewie (@traderstewie) May 15, 2021

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Lost $2MM of his kid's money...

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That's the first thing I noticed too.

So the brewing war in the Middle East has to help out some stocks right? What are we looking at?

QQQ

Trading tip I have found valuable for trading.

Trading wise and how I would look at this or anything else to trade it. Again intraday, weekly, near term, etc. not making a long term 'call' with these notes.

This is some of what I would be watching if I were trading Qs. There is a lot of data in this but look at the forest not the trees. Candles, volume and trend lines.

Red trend lines are long term trends.
Yellow trend lines are short/mid term trend.
Orange trend lines are 1-2 day trends.
White horizontal lines are support/resistance.


Qs pushed through upper short term trend rejected at long term 5/7 - left white arrow
Qs tested upper short term trend but rejected 5/10 - top yellow arrow
Qs tested lower long & short term trend 5/13 & 13 - lower white & yellow arrows
Qs tested upper short term trend 5/14 but rejected. - upper yellow arrow.

Trading this if Qs breaks the short term upper trend (yellow) then 328.29ish range and 330 will be resistance to watch for me. 330 is pretty key IMO as that is about convergence of resistance and long term trend (red line).

When a stock, SPY, Qs etc. breaks up through or is supported at a trend line, I trade/buy calls to the upside in the direction of the next resistance.

When a stock, SPY, Qs, etc. breaks down or is rejected at a trend line I trade/buy puts to the downside in the direction of the next support.

Tip I guess I am making....Trend lines matter and often determine if something is breaking out or failing. Back tests of trend lines are very common while never having made it to a support or resistance line. Doesn't matter 1/5/10 minute, 1 hour or a daily time frame.

Hourly chart.

$30,000 Millionaire said:

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WeBull account sucking wind. I am going to re evaluate my strategy. I funded this with $100.

I took profits on a couple of earlier trader in WWR and EBON.

Long NXTD, SNDL, WWR, and IBIO. I'm going to keep IBIO and WWR no matter what.

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You know, their trading platform is pretty good. It even allows you to input scripts into their charts. I added ripster's ema clouds.

FAT SEXY said:

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gougler08 said:

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So the brewing war in the Middle East has to help out some stocks right? What are we looking at?

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Whichever stocks that politicians have been accumulating. Any way to track this??

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PLTR?

gougler08 said:

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So the brewing war in the Middle East has to help out some stocks right? What are we looking at?

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Potential fringe option (I say potential fringe because I really don't know what Israeli conflict does to their stock historically)
Elbit Systems $ESLT
Israel Defense Tech Company

Edit to add: I have no clue what their revenue lifecycle is. Toured their place before though, think of them as similar to Raytheon in tech development. Albeit a much smaller company and not the same applications.

Yes, Palantir would stand to benefit.

BTC at 46.7k

Chart looks pretty broken.

Below 8/21/55/100 EMAs sitting on SR level.

Lose here and 45.1, 44.6, 41 next support levels I see.

FJ43 said:

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BTC at 46.7k

Chart looks pretty broken.

Below 8/21/55/100 EMAs sitting on SR level.

Lose here and 45.1, 44.6, 41 next support levels I see.

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Easy daily scalp plays on MARA if you can watch if closely.

US only oil companies

Prognightmare said:

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FJ43 said:

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BTC at 46.7k

Chart looks pretty broken.

Below 8/21/55/100 EMAs sitting on SR level.

Lose here and 45.1, 44.6, 41 next support levels I see.

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Easy daily scalp plays on MARA if you can watch if closely.

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Have to check that one out. Thanks for the lead!

FJ43 said:

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Prognightmare said:

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FJ43 said:

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BTC at 46.7k

Chart looks pretty broken.

Below 8/21/55/100 EMAs sitting on SR level.

Lose here and 45.1, 44.6, 41 next support levels I see.

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Easy daily scalp plays on MARA if you can watch if closely.

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Have to check that one out. Thanks for the lead!

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mara likes to surge at the open then fade. Generally can short it from the high with a stop maybe $1 over HOD.