Can you link her twitter? I know you've thrown some screen shots in before but would like to look at it more.FJ43 said:$5.75<$11.80. I sold below $10. Missed a second entry at mid $6s by a nickel. Live and learn.CrazyRichAggie said:
Those TSLA puts should be looking good for you, FJ.
VS Options call out by the way. She identifies some potentially good plays each day and you choose. She does alert for her entry and her scaling out or exits. Also provides what levels she sees anyway.
They are SPX traders as well.
Stock Markets
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Last: 4 min ago by confucius_ag
After hours discussion:
I have done a lot of learning the last two months (credit to $30K, FJ, Irish, and OA1).
Which is better long term when I identify a stock that is "oversold" and I think could make a run over a time period?
Buy a lot of shares or a call?
I have been fond of looking for oversold stocks on the 14 day RSI and then watching the daily, weekly, and monthly charts. Once the stock looks to be at a low I enter a 45 DTE call and let it ride. Then over the course the next days/weeks I look for a pop and a quick 50-100% possible profit.
I am not sure if it would be better to just buy the shares?
I have done a lot of learning the last two months (credit to $30K, FJ, Irish, and OA1).
Which is better long term when I identify a stock that is "oversold" and I think could make a run over a time period?
Buy a lot of shares or a call?
I have been fond of looking for oversold stocks on the 14 day RSI and then watching the daily, weekly, and monthly charts. Once the stock looks to be at a low I enter a 45 DTE call and let it ride. Then over the course the next days/weeks I look for a pop and a quick 50-100% possible profit.
I am not sure if it would be better to just buy the shares?
With big Green days come Big Red days. Ice in my veins. I just added a over a million $GGII I think. Lost count. Excited for tomorrow & Friday. Night everyone. A couple people can't slow this down forever. Keep positive & being kind & karma comes full circle. 🙏💪 pic.twitter.com/BDI4sgEQ6t
— Westcoastcloser (@MattRiv2) May 12, 2021
https://twitter.com/rachels_44AG 2000' said:Can you link her twitter? I know you've thrown some screen shots in before but would like to look at it more.FJ43 said:$5.75<$11.80. I sold below $10. Missed a second entry at mid $6s by a nickel. Live and learn.CrazyRichAggie said:
Those TSLA puts should be looking good for you, FJ.
VS Options call out by the way. She identifies some potentially good plays each day and you choose. She does alert for her entry and her scaling out or exits. Also provides what levels she sees anyway.
They are SPX traders as well.
This is her public one. She does post some things publicly though similar to what a Redler would do. Her private Twitter and discord with live data come with subscription.AG 2000' said:Can you link her twitter? I know you've thrown some screen shots in before but would like to look at it more.FJ43 said:$5.75<$11.80. I sold below $10. Missed a second entry at mid $6s by a nickel. Live and learn.CrazyRichAggie said:
Those TSLA puts should be looking good for you, FJ.
VS Options call out by the way. She identifies some potentially good plays each day and you choose. She does alert for her entry and her scaling out or exits. Also provides what levels she sees anyway.
They are SPX traders as well.
Primarily an options trader on weeklies but also some shares.
https://twitter.com/rachels_44?s=20
guess gap down to green close, chop thru most of next week. Pick a direction the last week in May.$30,000 Millionaire said:
What do you guys think happens? I bet volatility is down tomorrow.
I want to point out one thing to this board....Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:
https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/dont-be-fooled-by-aprils-inflation-jump-its-being-driven-by-reopening-quirks-51620847392?mod=mw_latestnews
This article explains it all. I'm going to sleep better tonight.
There's a lot of people being fooled. <laugh/cry emoticon>
<*sarc>
Has anyone looked at the 10YR UST today? These typical sell off or fear's drive people into treasuries and we see the yields go down. But in fact, they aren't going down but instead are going up, with the 10YR up 8bps today. I'm not an expert on what that means, besides pointing out - people/investors/entities are still getting out of the markets and they aren't driving to safe havens. So where is that cash going?
I think we go down again, at least first thing. 395-398 area.$30,000 Millionaire said:
What do you guys think happens? I bet volatility is down tomorrow.
Crypto
Bob Knights Paper Hands
Joined:
Dec 22, 2010
Posts:
11,949
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Right at close my Vix and SPXS call debit spreads orders executed, so I'm net free. I need a little more red for my STRY debit spreads and SPY credit spreads to sell for those to be net free. Somehow I screwed up those 5/21 TSLA 600 put flies. Half of them are broken wing flies with downside below 583. I'll be squeezing as I watch TSLA the next couple of days.
The 25 SPXS June spreads I have left are 5 baggers already.
All of this, 50% in cash, and I'm still down $10k today on paper. Focus on the silver linings, folks.
The 25 SPXS June spreads I have left are 5 baggers already.
All of this, 50% in cash, and I'm still down $10k today on paper. Focus on the silver linings, folks.
AgEng06 said:
Crypto
Bingo. You took the words out of my mouth.
cryptoRice and Fries said:I want to point out one thing to this board....Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:
https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/dont-be-fooled-by-aprils-inflation-jump-its-being-driven-by-reopening-quirks-51620847392?mod=mw_latestnews
This article explains it all. I'm going to sleep better tonight.
There's a lot of people being fooled. <laugh/cry emoticon>
<*sarc>
Has anyone looked at the 10YR UST today? These typical sell off or fear's drive people into treasuries and we see the yields go down. But in fact, they aren't going down but instead are going up, with the 10YR up 8bps today. I'm not an expert on what that means, besides pointing out - people/investors/entities are still getting out of the markets and they aren't driving to safe havens. So where is that cash going?
I am about as big a newbie as there is, but I suspect people are transferring money into crypto.Rice and Fries said:I want to point out one thing to this board....Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:
https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/dont-be-fooled-by-aprils-inflation-jump-its-being-driven-by-reopening-quirks-51620847392?mod=mw_latestnews
This article explains it all. I'm going to sleep better tonight.
There's a lot of people being fooled. <laugh/cry emoticon>
<*sarc>
Has anyone looked at the 10YR UST today? These typical sell off or fear's drive people into treasuries and we see the yields go down. But in fact, they aren't going down but instead are going up, with the 10YR up 8bps today. I'm not an expert on what that means, besides pointing out - people/investors/entities are still getting out of the markets and they aren't driving to safe havens. So where is that cash going?
I have actually been considering taking some losses in the markets and moving that cash into crypto, but im even less experienced with crypto than the market so there's that....LOL
Sure as **** isn't going into BTC or DOGE or ETH..... All those are down.AG 2000' said:cryptoRice and Fries said:I want to point out one thing to this board....Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:
https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/dont-be-fooled-by-aprils-inflation-jump-its-being-driven-by-reopening-quirks-51620847392?mod=mw_latestnews
This article explains it all. I'm going to sleep better tonight.
There's a lot of people being fooled. <laugh/cry emoticon>
<*sarc>
Has anyone looked at the 10YR UST today? These typical sell off or fear's drive people into treasuries and we see the yields go down. But in fact, they aren't going down but instead are going up, with the 10YR up 8bps today. I'm not an expert on what that means, besides pointing out - people/investors/entities are still getting out of the markets and they aren't driving to safe havens. So where is that cash going?
The big question I have is, are the crypto investors fleeing the small cap stocks for crypto putting excess pressure on the small caps?
Rice and Fries said:Sure as **** isn't going into BTC or DOGE or ETH..... All those are down.AG 2000' said:cryptoRice and Fries said:I want to point out one thing to this board....Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:
https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/dont-be-fooled-by-aprils-inflation-jump-its-being-driven-by-reopening-quirks-51620847392?mod=mw_latestnews
This article explains it all. I'm going to sleep better tonight.
There's a lot of people being fooled. <laugh/cry emoticon>
<*sarc>
Has anyone looked at the 10YR UST today? These typical sell off or fear's drive people into treasuries and we see the yields go down. But in fact, they aren't going down but instead are going up, with the 10YR up 8bps today. I'm not an expert on what that means, besides pointing out - people/investors/entities are still getting out of the markets and they aren't driving to safe havens. So where is that cash going?
ETH is over $4k. It was at $2k like 10 days ago.
I will respond after some work meetings end.SF2004 said:
After hours discussion:
I have done a lot of learning the last two months (credit to $30K, FJ, Irish, and OA1).
Which is better long term when I identify a stock that is "oversold" and I think could make a run over a time period?
Buy a lot of shares or a call?
I have been fond of looking for oversold stocks on the 14 day RSI and then watching the daily, weekly, and monthly charts. Once the stock looks to be at a low I enter a 45 DTE call and let it ride. Then over the course the next days/weeks I look for a pop and a quick 50-100% possible profit.
I am not sure if it would be better to just buy the shares?
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
That has been my theory. I took myself out of a lot of small cap stocks and moved it into crypto a couple weeks ago. My crypto gains have almost offset my stock losses. Not quite but close enough for me not to have a heart attack.Aggiesincebirth said:
The big question I have is, are the crypto investors fleeing the small cap stocks for crypto putting excess pressure on the small caps?
I still don't think the amount of institutional investors that are selling the markets AND treasuries are flying into Crypto. Just kicking rocks right now, but its curious to find whereAgs2013 said:Rice and Fries said:Sure as **** isn't going into BTC or DOGE or ETH..... All those are down.AG 2000' said:cryptoRice and Fries said:I want to point out one thing to this board....Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:
https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/dont-be-fooled-by-aprils-inflation-jump-its-being-driven-by-reopening-quirks-51620847392?mod=mw_latestnews
This article explains it all. I'm going to sleep better tonight.
There's a lot of people being fooled. <laugh/cry emoticon>
<*sarc>
Has anyone looked at the 10YR UST today? These typical sell off or fear's drive people into treasuries and we see the yields go down. But in fact, they aren't going down but instead are going up, with the 10YR up 8bps today. I'm not an expert on what that means, besides pointing out - people/investors/entities are still getting out of the markets and they aren't driving to safe havens. So where is that cash going?
ETH is over $4k. It was at $2k like 10 days ago.
Rice and Fries said:Sure as **** isn't going into BTC or DOGE or ETH..... All those are down.AG 2000' said:cryptoRice and Fries said:I want to point out one thing to this board....Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:
https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/dont-be-fooled-by-aprils-inflation-jump-its-being-driven-by-reopening-quirks-51620847392?mod=mw_latestnews
This article explains it all. I'm going to sleep better tonight.
There's a lot of people being fooled. <laugh/cry emoticon>
<*sarc>
Has anyone looked at the 10YR UST today? These typical sell off or fear's drive people into treasuries and we see the yields go down. But in fact, they aren't going down but instead are going up, with the 10YR up 8bps today. I'm not an expert on what that means, besides pointing out - people/investors/entities are still getting out of the markets and they aren't driving to safe havens. So where is that cash going?
Ethereum has doubled this month.
Doge went up 7x, currently at 5x.
Link up 33% in a month.
Litecoin up 32% over the last month.
Solana up 70% in the last month.
The list goes on.
Come get your pain. Nowhere to run to. Nowhere to hide.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
Joined:
Dec 22, 2010
Posts:
11,949
How long do you want to ignore this user?
I think we are likely to see the 5-day or 8-day up to at least that 100-day MA, if not the 150, before we reverse back down. That said, after every daily Vix pop of this magnitude the last 6 months the next day it's come back down to earth. So maybe a red candle for Vix but it stays near the top of the BB and we get another pop sometime Friday or Monday?Ragoo said:guess gap down to green close, chop thru most of next week. Pick a direction the last week in May.$30,000 Millionaire said:
What do you guys think happens? I bet volatility is down tomorrow.
You are far more right than I am way more often. I still think we need to grind down to that 398ish level on SPY before we can really regroup. But that's -3 ATR and I don't think we have seen that since Covid became a thing.$30,000 Millionaire said:
What do you guys think happens? I bet volatility is down tomorrow.
Maybe it runs or grinds up from here and I'm with you I think this seems a bit much at the moment.
Edit: I was wrong today thinking we would stay between 412-417. But we also broke through my lowest level I thought we might see this week anyway of 406.10ish.
Lets have a green candle day tomorrow.
This really depends on your objective. If your objective is to invest in a stock that you think has major future upside for years and years, you would enter shares on dips. If your objective is to trade, you would make a decision on what vehicle will provide results for you at a risk level you can tolerate. One weekly contract of TSLA is probably $1,500 ATM, but to have the equivalent buying power with shares, you have to pony up $60K. A 3% drop in TSLA puts you -$1800, but you still own the shares. Options tend to be solid plays for high beta stocks. What is nice about options is that your risk is defined.SF2004 said:
After hours discussion:
I have done a lot of learning the last two months (credit to $30K, FJ, Irish, and OA1).
Which is better long term when I identify a stock that is "oversold" and I think could make a run over a time period?
Buy a lot of shares or a call?
I have been fond of looking for oversold stocks on the 14 day RSI and then watching the daily, weekly, and monthly charts. Once the stock looks to be at a low I enter a 45 DTE call and let it ride. Then over the course the next days/weeks I look for a pop and a quick 50-100% possible profit.
I am not sure if it would be better to just buy the shares?
Taking another example, $CWH, it doesn't always move much intra-day, but if you started accumulating shares in the mid 20s with this board, you're really happy now with your investment. If you tried to play long calls on it, it was pretty tough, but if you held through the ups and down, it has worked out for you + you've gotten dividends.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
It still may, I just don't think it happens linearly.FJ43 said:You are far more right than I am way more often. I still think we need to grind down to that 398ish level on SPY before we can really regroup. But that's -3 ATR and I don't think we have seen that since Covid became a thing.$30,000 Millionaire said:
What do you guys think happens? I bet volatility is down tomorrow.
Maybe it runs or grinds up from here and I'm with you I think this seems a bit much at the moment.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
How are these performing today, specifically today.AG 2000' said:Rice and Fries said:Sure as **** isn't going into BTC or DOGE or ETH..... All those are down.AG 2000' said:cryptoRice and Fries said:I want to point out one thing to this board....Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:
https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/dont-be-fooled-by-aprils-inflation-jump-its-being-driven-by-reopening-quirks-51620847392?mod=mw_latestnews
This article explains it all. I'm going to sleep better tonight.
There's a lot of people being fooled. <laugh/cry emoticon>
<*sarc>
Has anyone looked at the 10YR UST today? These typical sell off or fear's drive people into treasuries and we see the yields go down. But in fact, they aren't going down but instead are going up, with the 10YR up 8bps today. I'm not an expert on what that means, besides pointing out - people/investors/entities are still getting out of the markets and they aren't driving to safe havens. So where is that cash going?
Ethereum has doubled this month.
Doge went up 7x, currently at 5x.
Link up 33% in a month.
Litecoin up 32% over the last month.
Solana up 70% in the last month.
The list goes on.
$30,000 Millionaire said:It still may, I just don't think it happens linearly.FJ43 said:You are far more right than I am way more often. I still think we need to grind down to that 398ish level on SPY before we can really regroup. But that's -3 ATR and I don't think we have seen that since Covid became a thing.$30,000 Millionaire said:
What do you guys think happens? I bet volatility is down tomorrow.
Maybe it runs or grinds up from here and I'm with you I think this seems a bit much at the moment.
So tomorrow will be green! Yes!
Why does everyone think that all invested money stays in trading accounts?
daily volatility on crypto has always been a bit crazy.Rice and Fries said:How are these performing today, specifically today.AG 2000' said:Rice and Fries said:Sure as **** isn't going into BTC or DOGE or ETH..... All those are down.AG 2000' said:cryptoRice and Fries said:I want to point out one thing to this board....Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:
https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/dont-be-fooled-by-aprils-inflation-jump-its-being-driven-by-reopening-quirks-51620847392?mod=mw_latestnews
This article explains it all. I'm going to sleep better tonight.
There's a lot of people being fooled. <laugh/cry emoticon>
<*sarc>
Has anyone looked at the 10YR UST today? These typical sell off or fear's drive people into treasuries and we see the yields go down. But in fact, they aren't going down but instead are going up, with the 10YR up 8bps today. I'm not an expert on what that means, besides pointing out - people/investors/entities are still getting out of the markets and they aren't driving to safe havens. So where is that cash going?
Ethereum has doubled this month.
Doge went up 7x, currently at 5x.
Link up 33% in a month.
Litecoin up 32% over the last month.
Solana up 70% in the last month.
The list goes on.
aaaaaand Spy Breaks 405 AH.
Unravel continues in #ES_F as we near my 4040 target zone - loss of 4120 was the major trigger
— Adam Mancini (@AdamMancini4) May 12, 2021
4040 remains key support with the big 4k below there. We are overdue for a more extended multi-week correction soon, but as long as those hold, bias is this one is a routine pullback https://t.co/bZ2L89Z3E6
We Talked Fear This Morning In Markets...Clearly Evident Today
Lots of cross currents... Gamma Hedging going on in QQQ which is crushing the Nasdaq... Higher rates from the CPI numbers crushed the 10 year... Higher 10 years killing the growth stocks...More and more Fed governors are using the transitory word which is not helping... We knew there would be a spike in inflation and it looks to get a lot worse before it gets better... The next round of Fed speakers will probably start to hedge their inflationary talk, similar to the nuance that Brainard did yesterday... At least the 10 year auction bidders got a nice concession...lets see how long it lasts... All of this is expected, and is not over by a long shot.... There will be no bell when it is time to buy risk... So expect volatility, or as we like to call it "chop"... After 1.68 level in 10 years is the 1.75-1.77 level... 30 years are holding the 2.41, but that could slip to 2.44...but if 2.50 is breached, that is a problem... 5 years back to .85, still support around .91...
Expect more volatility into the Retail Sales numbers Friday.
Lots of cross currents... Gamma Hedging going on in QQQ which is crushing the Nasdaq... Higher rates from the CPI numbers crushed the 10 year... Higher 10 years killing the growth stocks...More and more Fed governors are using the transitory word which is not helping... We knew there would be a spike in inflation and it looks to get a lot worse before it gets better... The next round of Fed speakers will probably start to hedge their inflationary talk, similar to the nuance that Brainard did yesterday... At least the 10 year auction bidders got a nice concession...lets see how long it lasts... All of this is expected, and is not over by a long shot.... There will be no bell when it is time to buy risk... So expect volatility, or as we like to call it "chop"... After 1.68 level in 10 years is the 1.75-1.77 level... 30 years are holding the 2.41, but that could slip to 2.44...but if 2.50 is breached, that is a problem... 5 years back to .85, still support around .91...
Expect more volatility into the Retail Sales numbers Friday.
Here are the most recent times we've touched -2 ATR on the daily SPX and what has happened:
Could we go to -3 ATR right away, yes! Is it high probability to short here for huge return, no. Will we revert to the mean, yes!
- May 12, 2021: TBD, time will tell
- March 4, 2021: 100 point rally the next day and 250 points over the next 2 weeks
- Jan 31, 2021: 100 point rally intraday, 300 points over the next 2 weeks
- October 30, 2020: 400 points over the next 11 trading days
- September 24, 2020: 450 points over the next 3 trading weeks
Could we go to -3 ATR right away, yes! Is it high probability to short here for huge return, no. Will we revert to the mean, yes!
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
Cash, cash is a position.Rice and Fries said:I want to point out one thing to this board....Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:
https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/dont-be-fooled-by-aprils-inflation-jump-its-being-driven-by-reopening-quirks-51620847392?mod=mw_latestnews
This article explains it all. I'm going to sleep better tonight.
There's a lot of people being fooled. <laugh/cry emoticon>
<*sarc>
Has anyone looked at the 10YR UST today? These typical sell off or fear's drive people into treasuries and we see the yields go down. But in fact, they aren't going down but instead are going up, with the 10YR up 8bps today. I'm not an expert on what that means, besides pointing out - people/investors/entities are still getting out of the markets and they aren't driving to safe havens. So where is that cash going?
Why buy treasuries when we know the fed will tighten causing rates to increase?
Colonial says the pipelines are getting spun back up this evening.
Will be a catalyst for the market tomorrow methinks.
Will be a catalyst for the market tomorrow methinks.
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