$AMZN implying around 140 pt move
— PSK2329 - JHC (@psk2329) April 29, 2021
Stock Markets
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233493 Replies |
Last: 8 hrs ago by Quacked
McInnis or 30k help me out here.
I show TRIN-NYSE INDEX at 1.19
Doesn't that imply some selloff incoming?
Thanks. Tailed this, but will need some help tomorrow with it lol.wanderer said:Buy 1 3570cAG 2000' said:Would love to understand this one. can you break it down? I thought the butterflies have four legs.$30,000 Millionaire said:
I found an $AMZN lotto I can live with.
3570/3600/3630 butterfly for $1.40
Sell 2 3600c
Buy 1 3630c
Will cost you ~$1.40 with a max profit of $28.60 (fly spread minus your debit). In order to breakeven, AMZN must be at 3571.40 and 3628.60 at the close tomorrow. (that's if you're holding til close).
AG 2000' said:Thanks. Tailed this, but will need some help tomorrow with it lol.wanderer said:Buy 1 3570cAG 2000' said:Would love to understand this one. can you break it down? I thought the butterflies have four legs.$30,000 Millionaire said:
I found an $AMZN lotto I can live with.
3570/3600/3630 butterfly for $1.40
Sell 2 3600c
Buy 1 3630c
Will cost you ~$1.40 with a max profit of $28.60 (fly spread minus your debit). In order to breakeven, AMZN must be at 3571.40 and 3628.60 at the close tomorrow. (that's if you're holding til close).
Tried to tail but I don't have enough buying power unfortunately
FJ43 said:
McInnis or 30k help me out here.
I show TRIN-NYSE INDEX at 1.19
Doesn't that imply some selloff incoming?
My notes (hoping one of them will confirm one way or another):
>1, bearish
<1, bullish
If above 2, 80% chance of rally next day
If below .6, 80% chance of sell off next day
BUT trend line matters.
It peaked at 1.46 earlier, has been trending down to 1.2ish right now. think the close matters.
I think today's TRIN is solidly bullish, but not overly so.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
$AMZN max pain is 3340. Disappointing earnings could take it there, but I just don't think they're going to be disappointing earnings.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
Thanks to you and 30k.AG 2000' said:FJ43 said:
McInnis or 30k help me out here.
I show TRIN-NYSE INDEX at 1.19
Doesn't that imply some selloff incoming?
My notes (hoping one of them will confirm one way or another):
>1, bearish
<1, bullish
If above 2, 80% chance of rally next day
If below .6, 80% chance of sell off next day
BUT trend line matters.
It peaked at 1.46 earlier, has been trending down to 1.2ish right now. think the close matters.
I am obviously not reading it correctly. Will need to school up on it as I had down anything over 1 was bearish. So 1.anything I read as bearish.
That's losing the fly price completely right?$30,000 Millionaire said:
$AMZN max pain is 3340. Disappointing earnings could take it there, but I just don't think they're going to be disappointing earnings.
Feel like I'm asking a dumb question but want to understand the trade completely.
for the $AMZN butterfly, I know that historically when Amazon beats earnings, it gaps up 4-5% if you averaged numbers. I am making a bet AMZN closes up 4% tomorrow and I am putting on a trade that is profitable between +3% and +5%, more or less.
The downside is also possible, but I am taking the positive trade as a lotto.
The downside is also possible, but I am taking the positive trade as a lotto.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
IF you wanted to take a max pain trade, you could buy a put butterfly centering on 3340, so that would be something like this:
If AMZN closes anywhere between probably 3312-3368 you will be profitable, with max profit on the nose of 3340. How you get the max profit, simplistically is:
Between the upper and lower strikes, you're playing an offset game. The easy math is to subtract the total premium paid from the strikes and that tells you how far within the strikes you have to go for profit.
- buy to open (1) 3370 put
- sell to open (2) 3340 put
- buy to open (1) 3310 put
If AMZN closes anywhere between probably 3312-3368 you will be profitable, with max profit on the nose of 3340. How you get the max profit, simplistically is:
- $30 of value from the 3370 put minus premium paid
- full premium from selling of the two 3340 puts
- 3310 put expires worthless and you lost the premium paid
Between the upper and lower strikes, you're playing an offset game. The easy math is to subtract the total premium paid from the strikes and that tells you how far within the strikes you have to go for profit.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
AMZN SLAYS IT.
AMZN ATH.
3552
3612
3619
3625
3645
I HAVE NEXT WEEKS 3600/3650!!!!!!!
HODL
3552
3612
3619
3625
3645
I HAVE NEXT WEEKS 3600/3650!!!!!!!
HODL
$AMZN
Nice volume there at the end of the day
3700.... cmon. just do it.
AMZN beats EPS forecast by 50%, sales by 4%.
no split?
MVIS misses on EPS, sales.
And everyone just realized they didn't hear the "S" word. Back down to 3615
Now let's get them bought tomorrow.AG 2000' said:
MVIS misses on EPS, sales.
hopefully it just sits here for 24 hours.McInnis 03 said:
And everyone just realized they didn't hear the "S" word. Back down to 3615
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
Trump is probably laughing at TWTR right now.
/NoPolitics!!
/NoPolitics!!
Pin this to 3600 and I'll be doing a happy dance.$30,000 Millionaire said:hopefully it just sits here for 24 hours.McInnis 03 said:
And everyone just realized they didn't hear the "S" word. Back down to 3615
Serious question, it's AH, why are my AMZN calls moving?
Do y'all set up each leg for a fly with a high share price stock like Amazon or just send it all as one order in the middle of bid/ask? It's a dangerous game setting these up haha
I'm only going to say this once....
The best day ever tomorrow would be AMZN announcing that they're buying tons of new AMD driven servers that are pre-loaded with PLTR software in order to monitor their van fleet which is being outfitted with MVIS Lidar to deliver lots of SNDL pot to people on CLOV medical plans using their C credit cards to pay the co-pays while they sit at home watching their ROKU shows.
IS THAT TOO MUCH TO ASK?
The best day ever tomorrow would be AMZN announcing that they're buying tons of new AMD driven servers that are pre-loaded with PLTR software in order to monitor their van fleet which is being outfitted with MVIS Lidar to deliver lots of SNDL pot to people on CLOV medical plans using their C credit cards to pay the co-pays while they sit at home watching their ROKU shows.
IS THAT TOO MUCH TO ASK?
If I'm doing a fly I don't leg in, I do it all in one transaction, buy to open 1 sell to open 2 buy to open 1Danwell Home said:
Do y'all set up each leg for a fly with a high share price stock like Amazon or just send it all as one order in the middle of bid/ask? It's a dangerous game setting these up haha
In NIO EVsMcInnis 03 said:
I'm only going to say this once....
The best day ever tomorrow would be AMZN announcing that they're buying tons of new AMD driven servers that are pre-loaded with PLTR software in order to monitor their van fleet which is being outfitted with MVIS Lidar to deliver lots of SNDL pot to people on CLOV medical plans using their C credit cards to pay the co-pays while they sit at home watching their ROKU shows.
IS THAT TOO MUCH TO ASK?
There. All done.
And buying WWR for $30B since they are getting into the battery market.
Now were done.
Now were done.
Seeing Some Month End Duration buying...10 Years Making a Run to Flat
Seeing some strong end of month buying...feels more like duration buying rather than reallocations... Does not affect our view on rates, but the window will stay open through tomorrow for treasuries to either do better or remain range bound... Was just listening to Balchunas at Bloomberg who follows ETFs...he says the Faang related ETFs and Fast money ETFs, used for risk on market speculation, is seeing withdrawals over the last week... Could indicate an equity top is not far away... We also think that some of this may be front running the capital gains increase... This money is going into short bond etfs... interesting
Seeing some strong end of month buying...feels more like duration buying rather than reallocations... Does not affect our view on rates, but the window will stay open through tomorrow for treasuries to either do better or remain range bound... Was just listening to Balchunas at Bloomberg who follows ETFs...he says the Faang related ETFs and Fast money ETFs, used for risk on market speculation, is seeing withdrawals over the last week... Could indicate an equity top is not far away... We also think that some of this may be front running the capital gains increase... This money is going into short bond etfs... interesting
Why in hell would you move earnings up to announce a miss on both?McInnis 03 said:Now let's get them bought tomorrow.AG 2000' said:
MVIS misses on EPS, sales.
Hope you're right on the buyout.
McInnis 03 said:
I'm only going to say this once....
The best day ever tomorrow would be AMZN announcing that they're buying tons of new AMD driven servers that are pre-loaded with PLTR software in order to monitor their van fleet which is being outfitted with MVIS Lidar to deliver lots of SNDL pot to people on CLOV medical plans using their C credit cards to pay the co-pays while they sit at home watching their ROKU shows.
IS THAT TOO MUCH TO ASK?
I can't believe you forgot a stock split as well
For me it would be if Apple announced they will be delivering new dedicated devices to Disney for their resort guests, have built-in Roku, contain 3D printed components, and flown via United Airlines.
So long as DPW handles the EV portion
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