Someone posted this on Ripster's Twitter what April trading has been like for them.
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Someone posted this on Ripster's Twitter what April trading has been like for them.
Quick view of Risk/Reward to be successful. With a number of posts regarding R/R, thought this might be helpful in identifying if a trade fits you or not based on your trading system/process/disciplines.
Did you get out of PCG? Broke to the downside.BoneAg said:
thank you, sir. appreciate your time and efforts to educate!
Ragoo said:
John carter preaches the cutting losers too. Setting a stop limit and if the market gaps below exit at the open.
This might be wise more often than not, but recently "lost" me 3k on AMD when my stop loss was hit at the open and then the stock immediately went way up. It was as if someone saw those shares sitting there and said "I'll buy those and it won't cost me much to do it - I just need to give a way a few shares and....."
Mostly Foggy Recollection
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Was your stop loss in a range that was deemed a part of a set up that was still valid? If so, that's on you. If not, it very well could have been a manipulated flash.cageybee77 said:Ragoo said:
John carter preaches the cutting losers too. Setting a stop limit and if the market gaps below exit at the open.
This might be wise more often than not, but recently "lost" me 3k on AMD when my stop loss was hit at the open and then the stock immediately went way up. It was as if someone saw those shares sitting there and said "I'll buy those and it won't cost me much to do it - I just need to give a way a few shares and....."
cageybee77 said:Ragoo said:
John carter preaches the cutting losers too. Setting a stop limit and if the market gaps below exit at the open.
This might be wise more often than not, but recently "lost" me 3k on AMD when my stop loss was hit at the open and then the stock immediately went way up. It was as if someone saw those shares sitting there and said "I'll buy those and it won't cost me much to do it - I just need to give a way a few shares and....."
I'm learning this more and more. MM like to have flash downs to take out stop losses on both shares and options.
I have begun using alerts more and more to give me the signal to exit a loser. My biggest problem still is discipline to cut the trade loose and move on. A stop loss takes that out of the equation. An alert still requires me to hit the sell button.
Mostly Foggy Recollection
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That's what I do. Setting alerts aren't hard and unless there is capitulation, your alert will allow you to get out around your wanted stop loss target.
I watch Dan's nightly videos that he provides for free. On last night's, I identified NVDA as one I wanted to look at closely this morning, as the 10 MA was around 620, and it appeared it was poking over it. This morning, I saw that NVDA was going to gap to around 624, a bit above the 620 pivot. I watched for a minute after open, and entered the 630C as it pulled back towards the 620 level. Took 2/3 off with a market order when it was hitting 40% gain and quickly took the final 1/3 when I felt the market as a whole was having too much indecision. This ended up being my best trade of the day. Usually, I'm scalping all day long, but I couldn't find a single thing to trade after 11AM today, until I went long on some MSFT shares after earnings.McInnis 03 said:What has killed me so many times with Dan's setup are things like this morning when he throws out "NVDA is ready to go!" and I tag along.....then it reverses and I die in a fire. My failure was that I thought the 6th 1 min candle broke the 5th 1min candle to the high side but it did not, that got me in the trade 1 tick early.....and that is the precise moment the trade failed and it ate my lunch.Is Not a Turtle said:
Dan's PS60 works well for scalping daily breakouts. It can be used for longer term and swing trading but in it's perfect form it identifies breakout areas to execute trades.
Can trade to the up or downside. Requires a large amount of screen time. You need to be there to make the trade work.
Same. Stop loss was a brutal learning lesson last month. Since I just do alerts and handle manually.Mostly Foggy Recollection said:
That's what I do. Setting alerts aren't hard and unless there is capitulation, your alert will allow you to get out around your wanted stop loss target.
I think the tough part is you still have to hit sell, but the reality is you need to have the discipline to click submit and not hope things will change if you're running things like that.
Google killed earnings. Y'all buying?
What do you do with a stock that has topped out charts?
$LPX - at its all time high. I know the axiom and jokes about stocks only going up, what to do with stocks at ATH, etc.
But I also know that we have a lumber shortage that ain't ending, and this thing has been on a grind up.
That said, every time it's hit +3 ATR in this run, it's pulled back to 0 or +1 before resuming the run up. I guess that's the trade at this point until proven otherwise?
(this is four months worth of grinding like this, btw)
$LPX - at its all time high. I know the axiom and jokes about stocks only going up, what to do with stocks at ATH, etc.
But I also know that we have a lumber shortage that ain't ending, and this thing has been on a grind up.
That said, every time it's hit +3 ATR in this run, it's pulled back to 0 or +1 before resuming the run up. I guess that's the trade at this point until proven otherwise?
(this is four months worth of grinding like this, btw)
The best lesson in trading I've begun to embrace was learning to remove emotion from the dollars and cents.
I love winning. Hate losing even more, so that was hard for me. But it ultimately allowed me to be ok with cutting. Then evaluate what went wrong and move on. Next trade.
Stops have probably saved/made me more than gains.
I love winning. Hate losing even more, so that was hard for me. But it ultimately allowed me to be ok with cutting. Then evaluate what went wrong and move on. Next trade.
Stops have probably saved/made me more than gains.
Going to third the alert vs shares sitting there.
Many people will snipe shares at prices they like when the opportunity arises.
I will put a hard stop on when my position size is at or below the average lot size. Otherwise, for scalps it's no more than the spread. I will sometimes buy an entry twice if it comes through.
For longs and swings, hard 7-8% max loss on a properly sized position. Half size still only gets me a 10% stop. That said, if you're trading and not investing, do you really want to ride a stock down 10%? I sure don't.
Many people will snipe shares at prices they like when the opportunity arises.
I will put a hard stop on when my position size is at or below the average lot size. Otherwise, for scalps it's no more than the spread. I will sometimes buy an entry twice if it comes through.
For longs and swings, hard 7-8% max loss on a properly sized position. Half size still only gets me a 10% stop. That said, if you're trading and not investing, do you really want to ride a stock down 10%? I sure don't.
AG 2000' said:
What do you do with a stock that has topped out charts?
$LPX - at its all time high. I know the axiom and jokes about stocks only going up, what to do with stocks at ATH, etc.
But I also know that we have a lumber shortage that ain't ending, and this thing has been on a grind up.
That said, every time it's hit +3 ATR in this run, it's pulled back to 0 or +1 before resuming the run up. I guess that's the trade at this point until proven otherwise?
(this is four months worth of grinding like this, btw)
If it's me I set a trailing stop and capture gains. Then buy back when the setup reconfirms. I've given up waaaaay too many gains this past year I could have captured.
Or
Sell covered calls OTM and bank premium or buy puts.
EPS is still solid. I've made a bunch of money on this one intend to continue to do so. The most Important mentor I've had in my life told me a thing once that I've always followed and it's always worked for me: "Ride the good horse".
Orlando Ayala Cant Read
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AG
What's up board, I have been pretty outa the loop with the market in recent weeks juggling a lot of things with my personal business, family health issues, and a few other things.
Just wanted to pop in to say that if ALPP dips tomorrow it could be a pretty strong buy as it continues to wait for uplist to NASDAQ. As always, do your own DD and don't trust anonymous internet posters like myself haha. Good luck to all and hope you all are doing well! Gig Em!
Just wanted to pop in to say that if ALPP dips tomorrow it could be a pretty strong buy as it continues to wait for uplist to NASDAQ. As always, do your own DD and don't trust anonymous internet posters like myself haha. Good luck to all and hope you all are doing well! Gig Em!
Orlando Ayala Cant Read said:
What's up board, I have been pretty outa the loop with the market in recent weeks juggling a lot of things with my personal business, family health issues, and a few other things.
Just wanted to pop in to say that if ALPP dips tomorrow it could be a pretty strong buy as it continues to wait for uplist to NASDAQ. As always, do your own DD and don't trust anonymous internet posters like myself haha. Good luck to all and hope you all are doing well! Gig Em!
Welcome back!
Orlando Ayala Cant Read said:
What's up board, I have been pretty outa the loop with the market in recent weeks juggling a lot of things with my personal business, family health issues, and a few other things.
Just wanted to pop in to say that if ALPP dips tomorrow it could be a pretty strong buy as it continues to wait for uplist to NASDAQ. As always, do your own DD and don't trust anonymous internet posters like myself haha. Good luck to all and hope you all are doing well! Gig Em!
The Penny Stock Whisperer has returned!
Orlando, $ANY... penny for your thoughts?
Orlando Ayala Cant Read
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AG
Thanks Guys, I'm still a bit disconnected from the market and probably will be for a couple more months just letting my longer stuff play out a bit while I focus on my primary business. I did sideline a lot of my money in March after some stop losses triggered and I'm only down to a few positions.
That said, I am going to take another position in the next day or two depending on what happens in those 2 days with $HCDI . Home builder that has revenues around the same as market cap, and they are getting really aggressive with acquiring land pushing forward new development to take advantage of home buyer mania. At $3.56 I'm hoping this can get to $5+ .
That said, I am going to take another position in the next day or two depending on what happens in those 2 days with $HCDI . Home builder that has revenues around the same as market cap, and they are getting really aggressive with acquiring land pushing forward new development to take advantage of home buyer mania. At $3.56 I'm hoping this can get to $5+ .
$30,000 Millionaire said:
only thing I'll add - if you want to make money consistently, use put credit spreads against quality setups. All the stock has to do is trade sideways for you to make money, maybe even a little down. It isn't sexy, you won't get the 10-20 baggers because your profit and loss are defined in advance, but if you use simple rules like buying back the sold put credit spreads at 75% of max profit, you'll make consistent money.
Another great method is leveraging OTM iron condors. If you routinely sell iron condors with the short strike at +2/3 ATR on the upside and -2/3 ATR on the downside, your likelihood of success is very high. Your risk may be risking 3 to make 1 or risking 2 to make 1, but the probability is higher.
The lowest probability plays requiring the highest active management are far OTM short dated calls. You're basically reliant on a big move with a catalyst.
Man I wish we had a good way to book mark posts
Go to page 2006 (for you), if you have a post there and keep editing it with stuff that matters to you. Can't forget that class year
***If this post is on Business and Investing, take it with a grain of salt. I am wrong way more than I am right (but I am less wrong than I used to be) and if you follow me you will be too.***
B&I Key:
ETH - Extended Trading Hours --- RTH - Regular Trading Hours
ORH - Opening Range (1st 30min) High --- ORL - Opening Range Low
R1, R2, R3 - Resistance 1, 2, or 3 --- S1, S2, S3 - Support 1, 2 or 3
B&I Key:
ETH - Extended Trading Hours --- RTH - Regular Trading Hours
ORH - Opening Range (1st 30min) High --- ORL - Opening Range Low
R1, R2, R3 - Resistance 1, 2, or 3 --- S1, S2, S3 - Support 1, 2 or 3
FJ43 said:Adding to my response.RigsTx said:
I know these have been mentioned ad nauseum on here, but I wanted to get the board's thoughts on different trading strategies...
Off the top of my head there are:
Mastering the trade - Carter
Scott Redler's methods
PS60
Ripster's EMA Clouds
I want to continue to refine my trading strategy without getting information overload/paralysis.
What are the board's recommendations and what are some other strategies that aren't listed here?
Ripster 'probably' has the most straight forward and simple, not to mention visual process. Follow the clouds and get in or out based on those. For the most part anyway.
He uses his cloud system for both shares and options. He also goes long on shares with upside. Not a lot to figure out with his setup and seems to have great success as a trader.
I am completely immersed in this system now. Figured I need to take this approach.
How are you guys liking CWH now?
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
McInnis 03 said:
Go to page 2006 (for you), if you have a post there and keep editing it with stuff that matters to you. Can't forget that class year
That's a hell of an idea.
probably looking at a pullback from here. I wouldn't be entering long.$30,000 Millionaire said:
How are you guys liking CWH now?
They were chasing stop losses on RXT this morning, helps confirm my feeling that this is setting up for another leg up.
Edit: Also institutional holders up almost another 2% with a couple good buys today.
Edit: Also institutional holders up almost another 2% with a couple good buys today.
Ragoo said:probably looking at a pullback from here. I wouldn't be entering long.$30,000 Millionaire said:
How are you guys liking CWH now?
I sold covered calls against half my shares when it hit 45. I was trying to delicately jab the doubters. OSTK is next.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
Mornun...
All eyes today on J Powell, AAPL & FB earnings. Boeing as well.
SPX slightly green this morning and green in Europe and Asia.
SPY/Qs and IWM slightly red early.
VIX basically flat
SKEW basically flat
I think we have choppy day ahead given Fed speaking this afternoon.
Here's to the normal JP speech day.
Trade wisely!
$30,000 Millionaire said:Ragoo said:probably looking at a pullback from here. I wouldn't be entering long.$30,000 Millionaire said:
How are you guys liking CWH now?
I sold covered calls against half my shares when it hit 45. I was trying to delicately jab the doubters. OSTK is next.
What CCs did you sell
AMD broke $89
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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I sold the $50 calls again, May this time, against my leaps. I'm thinking about selling some leaps here as well, since I think it's already been a year since I bought.
*MicroVision Announces Completion of Its Long-Range Lidar Sensor A-Sample Hardware and Development Platform$MVIS
— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) April 28, 2021
Wednesday Macros
Treasuries/Bunds/Gilts All Under Pressure as Vigilantes Front Run the Fed
After what looked like a strong 7 year auction yesterday the treasury market started to fall apart... 10 years moved 1.60 to close at 1.62... Overnight it hit 1.65 while 10 year real rates soared above 2.40... Even the well bid 7 year has a 2-3 basis point loss... We expected this after the Fed meeting... While we still think the next two weeks to next two months is going to be a tough slog for rates, where we expect 10 years to breech 2%, we did not think it would start until tomorrow morning... Japan is closed tonight. Even Gilts and Bunds were back by 4 and 3 basis respectively , where their charts are starting to look dicey.
So what is going on?..Vigilantes are getting set... No one expects much out of today's Fed meeting... Some Hawks expect hints of tapering, not yet not now is our view... But it is coming... Doves think the Fed will bury the idea of tapering for now and even push it back to the Jackson Hole meeting in August... We still think the Fed will be taken to the woodshed at the June meeting, kicking and screaming about soaring economic numbers, huge employment gains, and large inflation increases...
And it is not just the US, both Gilts and Bunds are on the verge of a hawkish move....but it is possible the Fed says something dovish to take the rates market back a few basis points... But the longer term outlook for rates looks like a bear steepening to the next level...
Biden... Really... More stimulus... Talk about throwing gasoline on an economy that is already on fire... More shortages with supply delays building. Even CNN is talking about gasoline shortages in the US this summer because there are not enough truck drivers to deliver the gasoline to stations... Yet Biden will add another 1.8 trillion announcement tonight to the 2.3 trillion infrastructure plan of two weeks ago... Do we need another 4.1 trillion on top of what we have had in the last 8 months?... CDC pulled off the outdoor masks yesterday... Many governors even opened it up further... This economy has tremendous momentum, what will another 4.1 trillion do?..add to inflation and higher rates for one.
Rates... Do not be surprised to see the markets stabilize for a day or two, given the large stock to bond moves expected Friday from month end duration and allocation moves... But higher rates are coming... 1.68 10 year first support, where the auction average was... Then 1.75, then 1.875 and 1.95..resistance is where we just came from...5 years first support is .90, then .97, then 1.01 and 1.125, eventually going to 1.31....
We always keep an eye open for the options markets where the big boys take big bets... We see that one "playa" is betting on the Jackson Hole meeting...expecting that 7 rate hikes will be built in before that meeting between now and 2024.. This targets 3 month libor, which may no longer exist in 2023, to be over 2%... We don't think that far out, but we do watch the big trades...
Treasuries/Bunds/Gilts All Under Pressure as Vigilantes Front Run the Fed
After what looked like a strong 7 year auction yesterday the treasury market started to fall apart... 10 years moved 1.60 to close at 1.62... Overnight it hit 1.65 while 10 year real rates soared above 2.40... Even the well bid 7 year has a 2-3 basis point loss... We expected this after the Fed meeting... While we still think the next two weeks to next two months is going to be a tough slog for rates, where we expect 10 years to breech 2%, we did not think it would start until tomorrow morning... Japan is closed tonight. Even Gilts and Bunds were back by 4 and 3 basis respectively , where their charts are starting to look dicey.
So what is going on?..Vigilantes are getting set... No one expects much out of today's Fed meeting... Some Hawks expect hints of tapering, not yet not now is our view... But it is coming... Doves think the Fed will bury the idea of tapering for now and even push it back to the Jackson Hole meeting in August... We still think the Fed will be taken to the woodshed at the June meeting, kicking and screaming about soaring economic numbers, huge employment gains, and large inflation increases...
And it is not just the US, both Gilts and Bunds are on the verge of a hawkish move....but it is possible the Fed says something dovish to take the rates market back a few basis points... But the longer term outlook for rates looks like a bear steepening to the next level...
Biden... Really... More stimulus... Talk about throwing gasoline on an economy that is already on fire... More shortages with supply delays building. Even CNN is talking about gasoline shortages in the US this summer because there are not enough truck drivers to deliver the gasoline to stations... Yet Biden will add another 1.8 trillion announcement tonight to the 2.3 trillion infrastructure plan of two weeks ago... Do we need another 4.1 trillion on top of what we have had in the last 8 months?... CDC pulled off the outdoor masks yesterday... Many governors even opened it up further... This economy has tremendous momentum, what will another 4.1 trillion do?..add to inflation and higher rates for one.
Rates... Do not be surprised to see the markets stabilize for a day or two, given the large stock to bond moves expected Friday from month end duration and allocation moves... But higher rates are coming... 1.68 10 year first support, where the auction average was... Then 1.75, then 1.875 and 1.95..resistance is where we just came from...5 years first support is .90, then .97, then 1.01 and 1.125, eventually going to 1.31....
We always keep an eye open for the options markets where the big boys take big bets... We see that one "playa" is betting on the Jackson Hole meeting...expecting that 7 rate hikes will be built in before that meeting between now and 2024.. This targets 3 month libor, which may no longer exist in 2023, to be over 2%... We don't think that far out, but we do watch the big trades...
One day I'm going to actually understand what I'm reading and that is when I'll know I've leveled up again.
But nonetheless, love the info, thank you.
But nonetheless, love the info, thank you.
***If this post is on Business and Investing, take it with a grain of salt. I am wrong way more than I am right (but I am less wrong than I used to be) and if you follow me you will be too.***
B&I Key:
ETH - Extended Trading Hours --- RTH - Regular Trading Hours
ORH - Opening Range (1st 30min) High --- ORL - Opening Range Low
R1, R2, R3 - Resistance 1, 2, or 3 --- S1, S2, S3 - Support 1, 2 or 3
B&I Key:
ETH - Extended Trading Hours --- RTH - Regular Trading Hours
ORH - Opening Range (1st 30min) High --- ORL - Opening Range Low
R1, R2, R3 - Resistance 1, 2, or 3 --- S1, S2, S3 - Support 1, 2 or 3
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