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ag94whoop
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AG
LOYAL AG said:

DisAg said:

So what's the consensus? More sell off or rebound?


More sell off, IMO. I'll post a weekly S&P tomorrow before the baseball game but this week was basically a doji. Very slightly red but effectively we closed where we opened Monday. That generally means nothing is really decided in terms of direction.


That's not what I wanted to hear
ProgN
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Cappo said:

Sooo you'd have no access


Now you owe me $9.95
LOYAL AG
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ag94whoop said:

LOYAL AG said:

DisAg said:

So what's the consensus? More sell off or rebound?


More sell off, IMO. I'll post a weekly S&P tomorrow before the baseball game but this week was basically a doji. Very slightly red but effectively we closed where we opened Monday. That generally means nothing is really decided in terms of direction.


That's not what I wanted to hear


I didn't enjoy posting it if that makes you feel better? I said last night I think we see 3678 before we start climbing again. Today we touched 3730 then bounced hard off of there. I think we could see a small green candle next week that doesn't accomplish much but in the next three weeks I think we touch that 3678 or close.

Sorry. Hope I'm wrong!
A fearful society is a compliant society. That's why Democrats and criminals prefer their victims to be unarmed. Gun Control is not about guns, it's about control.
Brewmaster
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DisAg said:

So what's the consensus? More sell off or rebound?
I'd be real surprised if we pulled back more next week. There was some real capitulation in a lot (most?) names today. and more in line with a steeper sell off than a 370 touch. Oil and some other stuff was propping spy up.

and as OA likes to watch for, there was real big buying out of the "V". multiple green 1 minute candles, Big buys. A little pullback from today's AH close and consolidation next week makes sense though.
DisAg
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1.9 trillion dollars being blasted into the economy real soon.
Madmarttigan
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Scariest part of all of this, a lot of our stocks down 30-50%, however SPY has barely had a correction. Stocks being flushed easily right now at the slightest drop in the overall markets. It took the SPY ripping up 2% for my account to break even today. Almost every stock is just overreacting to the market selling off and all have the exact same patterns, almost nothing is bucking the trend.

Somebody needs to turn the buying buttons back on.
Formerly tv1113
jimmo
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and the Fed too... aren't they allowed to purchase stocks/ ETFS?
FishrCoAg
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mpl35 said:

DisAg said:

So what's the consensus? More sell off or rebound?
I have no idea...but I have a good chunk of money (for me) going into an account.....so I hope it stays down or goes down more.


You're a don't pass bettor at the craps table aren't you?
LOYAL AG
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tv1113 said:

Scariest part of all of this, a lot of our stocks down 30-50%, however SPY has barely had a correction. Stocks being flushed easily right now at the slightest drop in the overall markets. It took the SPY ripping up 2% for my account to break even today. Almost every stock is just overreacting to the market selling off and all have the exact same patterns, almost nothing is bucking the trend.

Somebody needs to turn the buying buttons back on.


It's been mentioned on this thread a bunch lately that most of what this board is in right now is high beta stocks. Those will always move more violently than the overall market. They'll fall faster and recover later. When they do recover it'll happen quickly but it's going to take longer for them to reengage most likely. Big sell offs are fear driven and when that fear subsides people will come back to the big names first.
A fearful society is a compliant society. That's why Democrats and criminals prefer their victims to be unarmed. Gun Control is not about guns, it's about control.
LOYAL AG
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FishrCoAg said:

mpl35 said:

DisAg said:

So what's the consensus? More sell off or rebound?
I have no idea...but I have a good chunk of money (for me) going into an account.....so I hope it stays down or goes down more.


You're a don't pass bettor at the craps table aren't you?


HATE that guy. I believe the rest of the table should be able to take him out back when he wins from the don't pass line.
A fearful society is a compliant society. That's why Democrats and criminals prefer their victims to be unarmed. Gun Control is not about guns, it's about control.
ProgN
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LOYAL AG said:

ag94whoop said:

LOYAL AG said:

DisAg said:

So what's the consensus? More sell off or rebound?


More sell off, IMO. I'll post a weekly S&P tomorrow before the baseball game but this week was basically a doji. Very slightly red but effectively we closed where we opened Monday. That generally means nothing is really decided in terms of direction.


That's not what I wanted to hear


I didn't enjoy posting it if that makes you feel better? I said last night I think we see 3678 before we start climbing again. Today we touched 3730 then bounced hard off of there. I think we could see a small green candle next week that doesn't accomplish much but in the next three weeks I think we touch that 3678 or close.

Sorry. Hope I'm wrong!
No apologies required on this thread. If anyone was 100% right, they'd own their own island and satellites. I believe that we will have some more down days but we might be rounding the corner.
lobwedgephil
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I was thinking the opposite regarding the buying, watched flow all day and really thought I would see some monster buying coming in. Just wasn't really there today besides in NFLX at the lows. We may go back up, and it could come on Monday.
HoustonAg2014
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AG
If you are a long investor, this week was a dream situation for Apple and Amazon. Seeing Amazon at sub $3k is a dream. It won't a ton daily but when Amazon moves it will be a $4,500 stock. I'm in at $850 and I buy on dips. Look at the last consolidation. 1.5 years then 100% up. I think this is a MA stock we don't talk about because it's expensive and too well known
AgShaun00
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Anyone notice gbtc was less than BTC at closed. If that is true than loading more on Monday.
cageybee77
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ag94whoop said:

LOYAL AG said:

DisAg said:

So what's the consensus? More sell off or rebound?


More sell off, IMO. I'll post a weekly S&P tomorrow before the baseball game but this week was basically a doji. Very slightly red but effectively we closed where we opened Monday. That generally means nothing is really decided in terms of direction.


That's not what I wanted to hear


I suspect many "professional analysts" would say that the market is still (in general) over-bought. But we used to think that a growing national debt was a problem - it apparently isn't - so now I'm wondering if our historical norms on E/S are as useful as they used to be. Companies no longer need to make money as long as enough people imagine that they might some day. It's kinda scary to think that our stock market is driven by thousands upon thousands of plastic Chinese mood rings....but I guess it is.
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Mostly Foggy Recollection
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Been that way for a week or so.
deadbq03
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jj9000 said:

No, things will return back to normal. Valuations will matter again. We're just not there yet.

What you're seeing is frothing over anything that has a ticker. Once people lose their @sses on a REAL and extended pullback, either they'll be on the sidelines for good, or, they'll be too scared to put what little they still have into a Market that just handed them their @ss. The last week was a blip on the radar screen in relation to a legit downturn.

It all works...until it doesn't.
Just curious - what do you think "normal" is? I'm inclined to think the market hasn't been normal for a decade. Unprecedented growth.

But I'm also willing to admit the strong possibility that this is a new normal. Pensions are dead. The only way most people can hope to retire comfortably is with stocks... and the vast majority of them are happy to just blindly throw money at index funds each month. I'm not necessarily saying there's anything wrong with that but there's a reason companies try to make a push to get on an index... once you do, people will be buying in just for the sake of buying in.
LOYAL AG
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AgShaun00 said:

Anyone notice gbtc was less than BTC at closed. If that is true than loading more on Monday.


Don't really follow BTC closely except to the extent I'm in a few related plays. Teach me something here. Why is this significant?
A fearful society is a compliant society. That's why Democrats and criminals prefer their victims to be unarmed. Gun Control is not about guns, it's about control.
mazag08
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jj9000 said:

No, things will return back to normal. Valuations will matter again. We're just not there yet.

What you're seeing is frothing over anything that has a ticker. Once people lose their @sses on a REAL and extended pullback, either they'll be on the sidelines for good, or, they'll be too scared to put what little they still have into a Market that just handed them their @ss. The last week was a blip on the radar screen in relation to a legit downturn.

It all works...until it doesn't.
This. Nothing has changed because of a slight pullback. No, we haven't beaten inflation. And no, a bull market with stupid valuations doesn't last forever. A major recession is coming. Just not yet.
oldarmy1
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You see this volume reversal on a stock like NIO and you have a hard major support bottom set. Now the question becomes is the macro market sell off over or more to go? I see all the scenarios people are looking for but NIO should be a first in buy. Amazing volume, topped off by a 1.5M minute in the early afternoon.

It was my one large after hours purchase, having been away from the screens today. I watched the large sell candle at $38.50 and bought at $38.40 after seeing small time traders bailing in 8 share to 500 share trades. It worked for that institution driving out the weak. Then we had a 60k share buying spree the last 5 minutes of after hours trading.

The set up looks like immediate continuation but if the macro markets have any selling into a double bottom retest that left side daily pattern, I am willing to wager another steak and lobster dinner, will NOT extend beyond Model T pullback.

I haven't pulled up any other charts but will look for my Top 5 and post similar chart findings. As for NIO? Not a single time has it not made a 35% ADDITIONAL trend move upward after posting a 200M+ buy side share day. Not a single time. I like those odds.

cageybee77
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Well, of course, the appeal of index funds is they contain lots of companies of various sizes and risks even though many are focused on a sector. So, at least one will not be fooked by any one company. I read on this thread that peeps are "cashed out" and lament that they can't take advantage of dips. I think it a natural next step for most to realize that some cash is necessary in a volatile market. Day-traders have exacerbated the volatility. So, what will the market look like if a ton of peeps kept/pulled 20% of their funds out of the market and kept it for "opportunities "? Maybe no different. I agree that a lot of people will have to get burned, perhaps multiple times before they stop buying "hope"......but I think about the access technology has provided world-wide....and I think of billions of people in "emerging" countries that are duped daily into the dream of being rich and having "things". Maybe this is the new "norm".... I suppose it could be addicting. Why wouldn't it be? Vegas has nothing on the stock market. I also think this is an important conversation.
oldarmy1
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CrazyRichAggie said:

oldarmy1 said:

GILD calls inching upward.
If it could move up a couple feet that would be great.
Ok......
cageybee77
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I have read many "professional" analysts that have said they only use charts to confirm what they predict based on what is happening in the world (their perception) and consumer sentiment. What have you seen in the world - and the propensity to buy electric cars - going on right now that would lead you to believe that it's time to verify that with a look at the charts? How are you correlating car sales/ sentiment and stock price? Everyone can read that electric cars sales are increasing rapidly (so is competition) in China. Not challenging - just tryna learn.
oldarmy1
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cageybee77 said:

I have read many "professional" analysts that have said they only use charts to confirm what they predict based on what is happening in the world (their perception) and consumer sentiment. What have you seen in the world - and the propensity to buy electric cars - going on right now that would lead you to believe that it's time to verify that with a look at the charts? Not challenging you- just tryna learn.
China consumers are about to lead the world in EV adoption, up from #11 to #2. They will easily take over the #1 slot this year and NIO's "local brand" appeal is off the charts. As for the charts, beyond the 8+ TRILLION dollars Friday, it also happened to flash below the long term Model T with a strong reversal.

If you're going to put money at risk in the markets there isn't a much better set up fundamentally and technically than what NIO just gave.

Monywolf
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Very rarely do you have a bear market absent a recession. We are nowhere close to heading into a recession. In fact it's the opposite. The market is adjusting to higher rates, discounting future value of cash flows from growth companies. The market is trying to separate the weak investors from their shares. With an additional $1.9 trillion stimulus upcoming, be patient.
oldarmy1
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Absent the ridiculous leading headline this article has many facts that tell you AAPL is a great buy to hold.

https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/03/06/warren-buffett-just-sold-some-apple-stock-should-y/
cageybee77
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AG
So why, in your opinion, has the price dropped so much? Lack of confidence? Profit taking? If it's the former - that's hard to understand unless the car makers are losing money on each sale. If it's the latter, then the chart makes more sense (to me) as it would indicate that those who wanted to take a profit are"finishing"? I suppose it could be that buyers still must at some point decide what the cost of a share of stock should be - and perhaps many have concluded that even if NIO is successful, the price is to high.
LarryL
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oldarmy1 said:

You see this volume reversal on a stock like NIO and you have a hard major support bottom set. Now the question becomes is the macro market sell off over or more to go? I see all the scenarios people are looking for but NIO should be a first in buy. Amazing volume, topped off by a 1.5M minute in the early afternoon.

It was my one large after hours purchase, having been away from the screens today. I watched the large sell candle at $38.50 and bought at $38.40 after seeing small time traders bailing in 8 share to 500 share trades. It worked for that institution driving out the weak. Then we had a 60k share buying spree the last 5 minutes of after hours trading.

The set up looks like immediate continuation but if the macro markets have any selling into a double bottom retest that left side daily pattern, I am willing to wager another steak and lobster dinner, will NOT extend beyond Model T pullback.

I haven't pulled up any other charts but will look for my Top 5 and post similar chart findings. As for NIO? Not a single time has it not made a 35% ADDITIONAL trend move upward after posting a 200M+ buy side share day. Not a single time. I like those odds.


Do you think the April $40 calls would be a good play here?
oldarmy1
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cageybee77 said:

So why, in your opinion, has the price dropped so much? Lack of confidence? Profit taking? If it's the former - that's hard to understand unless the car makers are losing money on each sale. If it's the latter, then the chart makes more sense (to me) as it would indicate that those who wanted to take a profit are"finishing"? I suppose it could be that buyers still must at some point decide what the cost of a share of stock should be - and perhaps many have concluded that even if NIO is successful, the price is to high.
It is the nature of macro markets seizing control on heavy retail owned shares combined with shorts exaggerating the effect.
oldarmy1
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StrawberryFields said:

oldarmy1 said:

You see this volume reversal on a stock like NIO and you have a hard major support bottom set. Now the question becomes is the macro market sell off over or more to go? I see all the scenarios people are looking for but NIO should be a first in buy. Amazing volume, topped off by a 1.5M minute in the early afternoon.

It was my one large after hours purchase, having been away from the screens today. I watched the large sell candle at $38.50 and bought at $38.40 after seeing small time traders bailing in 8 share to 500 share trades. It worked for that institution driving out the weak. Then we had a 60k share buying spree the last 5 minutes of after hours trading.

The set up looks like immediate continuation but if the macro markets have any selling into a double bottom retest that left side daily pattern, I am willing to wager another steak and lobster dinner, will NOT extend beyond Model T pullback.

I haven't pulled up any other charts but will look for my Top 5 and post similar chart findings. As for NIO? Not a single time has it not made a 35% ADDITIONAL trend move upward after posting a 200M+ buy side share day. Not a single time. I like those odds.


Do you think the April $40 calls would be a good play here?
I flipped to shares as described on here and outlined the strategy in shorter form just now on twitter.



You need to see how much resistance it has at the $128.75 area. Break that and it cruises to $136 area to complete a cup.
LarryL
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For those smarter than me, do you think Friday's action signals a good reversal/buy in point for $FLGT?

LarryL
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oldarmy1 said:

StrawberryFields said:

oldarmy1 said:

You see this volume reversal on a stock like NIO and you have a hard major support bottom set. Now the question becomes is the macro market sell off over or more to go? I see all the scenarios people are looking for but NIO should be a first in buy. Amazing volume, topped off by a 1.5M minute in the early afternoon.

It was my one large after hours purchase, having been away from the screens today. I watched the large sell candle at $38.50 and bought at $38.40 after seeing small time traders bailing in 8 share to 500 share trades. It worked for that institution driving out the weak. Then we had a 60k share buying spree the last 5 minutes of after hours trading.

The set up looks like immediate continuation but if the macro markets have any selling into a double bottom retest that left side daily pattern, I am willing to wager another steak and lobster dinner, will NOT extend beyond Model T pullback.

I haven't pulled up any other charts but will look for my Top 5 and post similar chart findings. As for NIO? Not a single time has it not made a 35% ADDITIONAL trend move upward after posting a 200M+ buy side share day. Not a single time. I like those odds.


Do you think the April $40 calls would be a good play here?
I flipped to shares as described on here and outlined the strategy in shorter form just now on twitter.



You need to see how much resistance it has at the $128.75 area. Break that and it cruises to $136 area to complete a cup.
Thanks, this is a great strategy!
McInnis 03
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AG


***If this post is on Business and Investing, take it with a grain of salt. I am wrong way more than I am right (but I am less wrong than I used to be) and if you follow me you will be too.***

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$30,000 Millionaire
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AG
OA - I wouldn't bet against you on NIO because I think you're right, but I would do it to be on the hook for a steak and lobster dinner.
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