I thought I remembered reading that in February of the first year of a new Presidency the market is usually down. We are still up quite a bit since January
Stock Markets
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Last: 5 hrs ago by Heineken-Ashi
NLS just went from $30+ to $23.32 in less than 8 hours. Dayum
***If this post is on Business and Investing, take it with a grain of salt. I am wrong way more than I am right (but I am less wrong than I used to be) and if you follow me you will be too.***
B&I Key:
ETH - Extended Trading Hours --- RTH - Regular Trading Hours
ORH - Opening Range (1st 30min) High --- ORL - Opening Range Low
R1, R2, R3 - Resistance 1, 2, or 3 --- S1, S2, S3 - Support 1, 2 or 3
B&I Key:
ETH - Extended Trading Hours --- RTH - Regular Trading Hours
ORH - Opening Range (1st 30min) High --- ORL - Opening Range Low
R1, R2, R3 - Resistance 1, 2, or 3 --- S1, S2, S3 - Support 1, 2 or 3
That sympathy trade is REAL
I rolled my AAPL $200 Jan 2023 LEAP calls into $175s on the same expiry date. Tis a gift!FbgTxAg said:
Apple takes the lead in the global cellphone market.
Stock drops another 3%.
Good times.
Looking for $4K on S&P is starting to feel like looking for $2K last March.
You are correct. I will try and limit some of that if I can....sts7049 said:not trying to be mean, but i've noticed you post a lot about being negative. maybe you're checking it too frequently...ag94whoop said:
i missed my limit buy to avg down WWR by $0.03. guess that was best as I really dont need to keep adding too much to individual positions.
That said, Averaged down SNDL a bit at least.
TLRY, CLOV and WWR are eating my portfolio alive atm. I dont need to act on them, but it would be nice if they would just go back to previous support so that I dont see such a massive negative number...
set some alerts so that you can check back in when there's a run upward.
My regular consulting business has been down 90% the last 2 years due to a mix of various market abnormalities that hit in 2019 and then COVID in 2020, so I started swing trading last month for some additional income. I now trade every day for that reason and I guess I let the daily red numbers on a few stocks get to me.
Overall, I have done reasonably well. I have made several first time trader mistakes on mis-reading a stock's positions and buying at the wrong time. I also use this board a bit as a place to vent because my family hates listening to anything about business, much less the stock market, even when I tell them I made a bunch of money....lol
I am incredibly thankful for this board. There is a wealth of knowledge on here and I am looking forward to learning from OA's seminar and from the experience all of yall have.
Just a personal opinion on CLOV...
I kind of think prices MAY climb a bit this week heading into earnings, and if the earning report is really good, we may see a slight raise next week in the support line. Otherwise, it may not move a great deal until mid to late April after all the constant lawsuit reminders fall away.
Well that was an interesting day.
Had a great day with $SIG. In at $47.76, sold 2/26 $48c for $1.75 and it closeD at $49.12. Is it Friday yet?
The rest, well, not so much. LOL. Took over $1000 in cc premium today so I'll not stress over losses that aren't real.
Had a great day with $SIG. In at $47.76, sold 2/26 $48c for $1.75 and it closeD at $49.12. Is it Friday yet?
The rest, well, not so much. LOL. Took over $1000 in cc premium today so I'll not stress over losses that aren't real.
I think it's going to test 3,850. If it holds I think we're good.BlueTaze said:
Looking for $4K on S&P is starting to feel like looking for $2K last March.
i get it, believe me. i'm a newbie too at all this. i'm trying to learn patience as well and have screwed up plenty already with options, selling calls or puts at the wrong times.
DPW ruff day, no way the price stays that low.
Nearly all of the ARK funds are heavily invested in Tesla, have to think that's a direct correlation.
That was me. 80% of all Februaries after elections going back the last 52 years, the market is red.YNWA_AG said:
I thought I remembered reading that in February of the first year of a new Presidency the market is usually down. We are still up quite a bit since January
To the tweet about February 2020 - I think it's so hard to compare the two. Considering Corona fear was really gearing up globally around that time frame. Just so hard to say that history will repeat itself if there is no driving factor in the next 1-2 months.
PAVM did well today!
Might buy when they post a profit. Or get a lot closer than they are.
Anyone know much about $SHLX?
What was a good entry for DPW?
Man I was only slightly down at 2pm and then come back from work and I'm down much further...which one of you broke things?
Fairfield_Ag said:
Nearly all of the ARK funds are heavily invested in Tesla, have to think that's a direct correlation.
Good point, it's near the top of their list of holding on several funds
MROD92 said:
What was a good entry for DPW?
I entered at $5.73. Didn't think it'd keep dropping but... it did
DubFalls said:
PAVM did well today!
And now they are doing a public offering.
Dang it.
We reverted to the daily mean on the S&P and we touched -1 ATR on Nasdaq. Everyone is now all bearish. What do we think tomorrow brings?
I'm not saying we're going to fall off a cliff here, but put/call and SKEW are still really high.
Don't be surprised if we rally the next 2 days or so and then just dump like you can't believe.
Don't be surprised if we rally the next 2 days or so and then just dump like you can't believe.
You can do that, but you wouldn't have bought ROKU at $50 or probably not even now. You wait on the profit, then you'll miss all the growth plays, but to each his own.cageybee77 said:
Might buy when they post a profit. Or get a lot closer than they are.
Hey I want to toss an idea by you that changed my trading (short term) the most.
**Editors note: this is not meant to be advice for LTH investing although it applies**
The concept of risk management comes up a lot and with the euphoria of the most recent run-up I think most people have not got a great concept of it. The internet is full of people that advocate just BTFD and they are not wrong in the longest of long term ideas.
But when maximizing returns on termed trades, it pays more to know where you're wrong on the trade. You mentioned buying at the wrong time and other new trader "mistakes". I'm here to tell you, every trader makes those mistakes. The difference between old traders and new traders is that the old trader knows when they're wrong. They know that from the time they lay money down and put anything out there. They count that loss and walk away from the table.
As a trader, and one who has had success, you need to put money in your account. But you need to be clear on your exits as well. There can be no "well just a little further" or "I'll average down" if those things are not in your plan. I can distill this down to 3 concepts:
1) your job is to put money into your account
2) you need to know when you have hit max pain per trade and bail.
3) you can always buy it back if you still like the trade.
I typed this out as much for you as for me. I need these lessons every day.
**Editors note: this is not meant to be advice for LTH investing although it applies**
The concept of risk management comes up a lot and with the euphoria of the most recent run-up I think most people have not got a great concept of it. The internet is full of people that advocate just BTFD and they are not wrong in the longest of long term ideas.
But when maximizing returns on termed trades, it pays more to know where you're wrong on the trade. You mentioned buying at the wrong time and other new trader "mistakes". I'm here to tell you, every trader makes those mistakes. The difference between old traders and new traders is that the old trader knows when they're wrong. They know that from the time they lay money down and put anything out there. They count that loss and walk away from the table.
As a trader, and one who has had success, you need to put money in your account. But you need to be clear on your exits as well. There can be no "well just a little further" or "I'll average down" if those things are not in your plan. I can distill this down to 3 concepts:
1) your job is to put money into your account
2) you need to know when you have hit max pain per trade and bail.
3) you can always buy it back if you still like the trade.
I typed this out as much for you as for me. I need these lessons every day.
This. I got my ass kicked on Feb 22 with an expiring put spread on GOOG. I had to leave the computer for a few hours and it's dove on me while I was out. That was literally the first day the markets too notice of COVID. Absent anything like this this is just a market getting skittish about a big number, specifically S&P $4K.TecRecAg said:
To the tweet about February 2020 - I think it's so hard to compare the two. Considering Corona fear was really gearing up globally around that time frame. Just so hard to say that history will repeat itself if there is no driving factor in the next 1-2 months.
The RSI on SPX is approaching a very critical area. If we don't bounce a lot more pain could be on the horizon.
The guy with a hot wife subtly mentions he's doing a lot of plumbing today....sure sure....rub it in, rub it in.CrazyRichAggie said:kyledr04 said:
The last few days its seemed like doing nothing has been a good strategy.
I'm doing a lot of plumbing work today!
Fireman said:The guy with a hot wife subtly mentions he's doing a lot of plumbing today....sure sure....rub it in, rub it in.CrazyRichAggie said:kyledr04 said:
The last few days its seemed like doing nothing has been a good strategy.
I'm doing a lot of plumbing work today!
That type of day plumbing is a very rare occurrence these days! I guess we had sediment built up in the hot water heater because all my faucets were clogged after the water came back on at the house.
Thanks for the advice. And I truly think this is something I need to elarn to do. I am just not sure where to begin and exactly which stocks I want to hold long term.panduh bear said:
Hey I want to toss an idea by you that changed my trading (short term) the most.
**Editors note: this is not meant to be advice for LTH investing although it applies**
The concept of risk management comes up a lot and with the euphoria of the most recent run-up I think most people have not got a great concept of it. The internet is full of people that advocate just BTFD and they are not wrong in the longest of long term ideas.
But when maximizing returns on termed trades, it pays more to know where you're wrong on the trade. You mentioned buying at the wrong time and other new trader "mistakes". I'm here to tell you, every trader makes those mistakes. The difference between old traders and new traders is that the old trader knows when they're wrong. They know that from the time they lay money down and put anything out there. They count that loss and walk away from the table.
As a trader, and one who has had success, you need to put money in your account. But you need to be clear on your exits as well. There can be no "well just a little further" or "I'll average down" if those things are not in your plan. I can distill this down to 3 concepts:
1) your job is to put money into your account
2) you need to know when you have hit max pain per trade and bail.
3) you can always buy it back if you still like the trade.
I typed this out as much for you as for me. I need these lessons every day.
YTD I have exited most positions and taken profits to the turn of about 15-20% ROI. So thats "money in the bank" for far this year.
Right now, in current portfolio, I closed Friday down maybe 5%, but today dropped me to 11% down.
Some of that is just things like DPW, TLRY, SNDL, SYN all dropping from my buy ins, but they all have pretty solid short term upside and DPW, TLRY, SNDL all have explosive potential so I am not worried about them unless I see a pattern of this forming. No idea at all why UWMC keeps falling but its a good company and should recover nicely at some point. BLNK and FUBO have dropped today. Both should recover but seeing the class action suits pop up on FUBO news gives me the "CLOV heebeegeebees" so I will wait a couple days to see how it reacts from here.
WWR was simply a case of me thinking $9 was support, so I bought in kinda heavy cause I like the stock and planned a $2-3 swing profit, and then it falls to $7. I am pretty confident that it will return to a profitable zone within a few weeks, or maybe 1-2 months so I am holding ATM.
CLOV is the wildcard. I got nuttin.
Only things paying off right now for me are oil (XOM, ENLC) and MGNI.
I've not seen a good sign of reversal yet, that could be a flash below $5 area, so hold onto your butts. (50 day ema is 4.83). Covered calls can help lessen the short term pain. I think this one runs hard soon though.Ags2013 said:MROD92 said:
What was a good entry for DPW?
I entered at $5.73. Didn't think it'd keep dropping but... it did
EBON, NXTD and some others did reverse today though.
Does SKEW only update at the end of the day? I wrote down 141.53 yesterday, and it looks like we're down to 138.82 at the close today but TOS doesn't chart it hourly. Either way I agree with your sentiment, we're still elevated, and any run over the next day or two would only push it right back towards the 145 area.$30,000 Millionaire said:
I'm not saying we're going to fall off a cliff here, but put/call and SKEW are still really high.
Don't be surprised if we rally the next 2 days or so and then just dump like you can't believe.