Thundergon said:
Last post from me on this topic since this is the stock thread.
PWest might know more because I'm not smart enough to understand how to solve the fusion problem, but my bet is it'll be several generations before we can implement anything from it. It's crazy how much money is being poured into it when to me it would make more sense to get small modules up and running before looking at fusion but who knows. The big problem with fission is the potential for a meltdown where with fusion from what I understand that problem doesn't exist and that's a big thing for public sentiment and safety. The big problem with fusion though is they can't figure it out yet and it takes more power to start the reaction then what they can harvest from it like you said. You have guys like Jeff Bezos and Bill Gates throwing millions into funding private fusion research companies including the billions from the ITER cooperation like you mentioned. I wouldn't be surprised if the fusion race turns into the next space race, metaphorically and literally.
My last long comment on this nuclear side convo for anyone interested, don't have any specific stocks to recommend through all of this, but if it gives people any insight into the nuclear power world, and the future of electric generation in general, then I guess that's a good thing.
I am in my 20s, I don't expect to see a fusion reactor which produces more energy than it consumes in my lifetime. In the course of human history? Absolutely. Within the next 100 years? Greater than 50% chance if I had to put a number to it. Every person I've interacted with who has worked on fusion has said the same thing "it's been 20 years away for the last 40 years".
If humanity gave the nuclear academic/industry/laboratory system unlimited blank checks and said "make it happen at any cost" then it'd get done within 20 years. But that's literally a "The world is going to end in 20 years if we don't make fusion" scenario and that will never happen. The people throwing money at it now will never see the return on their investment, my guess is they're doing it because they're rich enough to throw money around and try and help the 'greater good' of humanity.
In the meantime I do see the smaller fission systems I've already mentioned come online, a few of them towards the end of this decade. NuScale will be the first, followed by X-Energy, Oklo, and TerraPower. Rolls-Royce is working on an SMR design and the UK government is all on board with nuclear so honestly they might beat any US company to be the first to actually build one. In a dream world I would have the US government and DOE follow exactly what the UK is doing to revitalize their domestic nuclear industry while creating jobs for local workers. Also Poland is going all in on nuclear to replace their coal generation, they've been in talks with US companies and if I had to put money on it they're going to begin construction on Westinghouse AP1000s this decade. Once the rest of Europe's electric grid craps the bed, Poland will be positioned to be an exporter of electricity due to the baseload generation they're aiming to build.
Links for those interested:
https://www.nuscalepower.com/https://x-energy.com/reactors/xe-100https://www.terrapower.com/https://holtecinternational.com/products-and-services/smr/https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/Rolls-Royce-on-track-for-2030-delivery-of-UK-SMRhttps://www.world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/Poland-plans-USD40-bn-investment-in-new-nuclear-pl#:~:text=Polish%20Climate%20Minister%20Micha%C5%82%20Kurtyka,to%20a%20clean%20energy%20economy.&text=The%20first%201%2D1.6%20GWe,GWe%2C%20to%20follow%20by%202040.And as for meltdown potential these new designs are "meltdown-proof". I know that's a very bold claim and most people roll their eyes when they hear it, but each design has their own unique technical reasons as to why that's true and I could go on for hours and hours about each one. The argument was convincing enough for NuScale that the NRC didn't require an exclusion zone or emergency planning zone when they gave NuScale their design certification. Basically they were able to show the NRC that any accident they could have wouldn't affect anybody outside of the facility fence line which is a huuuuuuuge deal for a nuclear plant. Also, after ***ushima the DOE and fuel manufacturers began the Accident Tolerant Fuel (ATF) program which aimed to replace the fuel in currently operating reactors with new fuels that are more efficient and safer than current fuels. Some designs have already been run for a full 18 month cycles in US plants and preliminary analysis has been positive, honestly don't know the cost basis compared to current fuel. So it's not totally infeasible for the current large reactor fleet to maintain operation with an increased margin of safety using ATF and also start adding in these newer cheaper and safer models. Once again maybe I'm young and overly optimistic but I see it happening in my adult life. Anyway, that's my long rambling post for anyone interested in nuclear, I don't post on this thread all that often but I do watch it pretty seriously, I guess this is the first time my personal career and this thread overlapped.
Link to ATF progress:
https://www.powermag.com/big-boost-for-framatomes-accident-tolerant-nuclear-fuel/
