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Agswinning
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In reply to Whitehouse Road • 8:46a, 2/13/21
White House Road said:
Just FYI for those of you who missed the seminar, since a few have posted about watching the recording. OA said he wasn't going to post the recording for this one. I believe he lost his slides/charts because of power outages due to the winter storm, so he didn't get to go over the things he wanted to. Instead he said he would do another one.


Thanks.
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BlueTaze
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 9:00a, 2/13/21
RE OA seminar yesterday

I thought it was a great hour, but OA was juggling a lot of things and felt it was scatter brained. He may hold off for a recording until the next one that meets his high standards. (Per comments above)

Few key takeaways without the charts (others feel free to add or correct):

-higher implied vol means higher anticipation of big move

-SKEW index is great indicator of macro sentiment, with big players hedging at highs and going long at lows. 200MA is good equator line. Routinely check at close to help maintain balance on individual trades.

-macro breakouts usually run for 8-12 days on average, just a stat to be mindful of on trades and profit taking.

-hard V patterns often present great entry to go long at a dip or gap down at top of V. That typically becomes new support area.

-the handle of cups often hit model T (50% retrace), and can present good entry in up trend.

-channels create good odds for calls at base, but can have hard reversals at top of channel (see SDC)

-Must leverage after hours trading to exploit option positions on big AH moves. Short shares against calls on big spikes, buy shares against puts on major sell offs. Effectively close position when restricted from option trading. (See AMC)

3 major option entry indicators:
1) major support level
2) off wedge support consolidation (sideways channel)
3) breakouts
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Definitely Not A Cop
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In reply to Whitehouse Road • 9:23a, 2/13/21
AG
White House Road said:
Just FYI for those of you who missed the seminar, since a few have posted about watching the recording. OA said he wasn't going to post the recording for this one. I believe he lost his slides/charts because of power outages due to the winter storm, so he didn't get to go over the things he wanted to. Instead he said he would do another one.


Is there a way to watch the first one if I missed the signups? I got no issues throwing some bucks OA's way for it.
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Madmarttigan
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9:38a, 2/13/21
AG
Really newbie question but when you sell CC/naked puts do you ever get assigned before expiration when they are ITM and lose your premium or does premium always go to zero and you are assigned or lose your shares always on expiration date?
Formerly tv1113
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SpongeBob
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In reply to Madmarttigan • 10:05a, 2/13/21
AG
You can be assigned early on both Calls and Puts.
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Charismatic Megafauna
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10:18a, 2/13/21
AG
But you never "lose" your premium. The money you get for "selling to open" either type of contract is yours regardless, and if the buyer exercises you either hand over the shares or you buy the shares at the strike price, both of which were established when you sold the contract. But premium received was your money the instant you sold the contract, it didn't get held in escrow or anything.
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Madmarttigan
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In reply to Charismatic Megafauna • 10:24a, 2/13/21
AG
And what if the premium is now higher than originally when you sold the option if someone assigns you early? Money out of your pocket? For example I've actually lost about 10% on my CLOV 12.5 puts, if I am assigned early I assume I would lose any premium increases?
Formerly tv1113
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DavysApprentice
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In reply to Madmarttigan • 10:29a, 2/13/21
AG
tv1113 said:
Really newbie question but when you sell CC/naked puts do you ever get assigned before expiration when they are ITM and lose your premium or does premium always go to zero and you are assigned or lose your shares always on expiration date?


To use an example here to answer this question:

I bought 100 shares of SNDL at $1 and then bought 2 call options with a strike price of 1.50 that expired feb 19 for I think around .2 each (40 bucks).

When SNDL started moving over 2.30 I sold one of the call options at .8 and exercised the other one early to get 100 shares at the 1.50 strike price. I then sold a 3 dollar covered call out to March price on the shares I just exercised to further lower my cost basis.

Well then it got way over 3 bucks and I just knew that call I sold would get exercised but it never did.
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Charismatic Megafauna
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In reply to Madmarttigan • 10:41a, 2/13/21
AG
tv1113 said:
And what if the premium is now higher than originally when you sold the option if someone assigns you early? Money out of your pocket? For example I've actually lost about 10% on my CLOV 12.5 puts, if I am assigned early I assume I would lose any premium increases?


Edit: its like buying and selling stocks. Don't fret over catching exact tops and bottoms, just work on your execution and be happy when you can make money consistently. "Man who tries to pick bottom gets stinky finger"
You missed out on some premium but i wouldn't say you "lost" it. Say you filled up your truck at 2.05 yesterday and today the price is $2. Did you lose 5c/gal? Or you sold a car last year for 5000 and just popped as a popular vintage and would be worth 15k today. Did you lose 10k?
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BrokeAssAggie
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10:43a, 2/13/21
You guys are non stop!! Starting some chili on this brisk Saturday.


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Madmarttigan
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In reply to Charismatic Megafauna • 10:44a, 2/13/21
AG
No I mean I sold puts for 1000, now because the price of Clov has dropped it shows the premium is 1100 and it shows I have lost 100 dollars. If someone assigned this to me now what happens to that 100 dollars? Vanishes into thin air or comes out of my account?
Formerly tv1113
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Bob Knights Paper Hands
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In reply to Madmarttigan • 10:46a, 2/13/21
tv1113 said:
Really newbie question but when you sell CC/naked puts do you ever get assigned before expiration when they are ITM and lose your premium or does premium always go to zero and you are assigned or lose your shares always on expiration date?

You can and do get exercised early when you sell calls or puts, bit it's rare. Think about it this way if someone bought the $100 March calls for XYZ stock and the stock price went to $102, they could exercise it and receive those shares now at a $2 discount. However, the calls would be worth more than $2 since there is still time for the stock price to increase further, so they would normally just sell the call if they wanted to take their profits instead of exercising them early.

I've been exercised early before but it's always some weird situation like crazy volatility on GME or extremely low liquidity stocks.
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Robag09
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In reply to Madmarttigan • 10:48a, 2/13/21
AG
If you are assigned shares early that put value disappears from your account. It is just showing the current value of those puts. The only way you "lose" that money is if you buy them back at the higher price.

You have your $1000 regardless of if you are assigned or not.

Edit: Is this a Robinhood account?
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Madmarttigan
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10:53a, 2/13/21
AG
Next question then, when do you actually lose significant money selling CC and naked puts? When premium gained is significantly less than the value lost through the stock price drop?


It seems like it's too simple to make money off of selling options, so what is the catch I guess
Formerly tv1113
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$30,000 Millionaire
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10:55a, 2/13/21
AG
Just signed up for WeBull. Going to see what I can do with $100. I have never traded this way before, so this will be a new experience.


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LarryL
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 11:13a, 2/13/21
$30,000 Millionaire said:
Just signed up for WeBull. Going to see what I can do with $100. I have never traded this way before, so this will be a new experience.
Keep us posted on your trades. I've traded small accounts, but not quite this small, so I'd be interested to see what you find to trade.
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jwhitlock3
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11:16a, 2/13/21
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$30,000 Millionaire
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11:19a, 2/13/21
AG
It will take a couple days to get the WeBull account set up. I have pretty tight security on my bank accounts, so I have to do the micro deposit route.
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Ornithopter
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In reply to jwhitlock3 • 11:28a, 2/13/21
AG
Wonder if OA will be waking up at 2AM to buy more.
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Bob Knights Paper Hands
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In reply to Madmarttigan • 11:29a, 2/13/21
tv1113 said:
Next question then, when do you actually lose significant money selling CC and naked puts? When premium gained is significantly less than the value lost through the stock price drop?


It seems like it's too simple to make money off of selling options, so what is the catch I guess

I guess that gets back to your goals when you sold calls or puts. Were you using that as a vehicle to make revenue, were you selling CC as a hedge or profit taking on stocks you own in case share prices retreat, or were you selling puts to use as an entry
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Definitely Not A Cop
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 11:30a, 2/13/21
AG
$30,000 Millionaire said:
It will take a couple days to get the WeBull account set up. I have pretty tight security on my bank accounts, so I have to do the micro deposit route.


Not the worst thing In the world. I've been finding myself feeling like Clark Griswold in Vegas Vacation sometimes looking for new stocks to get into.
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Philip J Fry
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 11:31a, 2/13/21
AG
My account started on the same scale ($500). Definitely is an interesting experience.

I started out trying to find stocks already in a nice channel, but running up against the support line. CNET was an easy stock to time for me. Never considered it a long term buy, but looking at the charts now makes me wish I'd kept a small amount in.
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Charismatic Megafauna
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In reply to Madmarttigan • 11:38a, 2/13/21
AG
Yeah i got you now. Yeah that's just the cost to buy the contract back. Don't worry about that it will just make you doubt yourself. You make lots of money selling covered calls and cash secured puts when you do it week after week, month after month
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DavysApprentice
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In reply to Madmarttigan • 11:40a, 2/13/21
AG
tv1113 said:
Next question then, when do you actually lose significant money selling CC and naked puts? When premium gained is significantly less than the value lost through the stock price drop?
It seems like it's too simple to make money off of selling options, so what is the catch I guess


I have never done a naked put but you can't lose money selling a covered call. You could lose out on future gains but you keep the premium regardless. If you buy a stock at 5 and sell covered calls later on with a 10 dollar strike price to collect some premium you could lose out on gains above 10 dollars but the premiums is still yours.

You just have to sell your shares at 10 bucks
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sts7049
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In reply to jwhitlock3 • 11:49a, 2/13/21
AG
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leoj
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In reply to jwhitlock3 • 11:54a, 2/13/21
AG
Nice, just saw that. He commented on this reply as well.

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FJ43
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12:13p, 2/13/21
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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Charismatic Megafauna
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12:14p, 2/13/21
AG
Since it's the weekend, here's a neat article on blockchain/crypto applied to refugee aid
https://innovation.wfp.org/project/building-blocks
Parity Technologies built the blockchain using parity ethereum. They're private
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frankm01
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In reply to leoj • 12:16p, 2/13/21
leoj said:
Nice, just saw that. He commented on this reply as well.

Awesome. Amazing how many stocks were brought up on this board (most by OA, but many by others as well) that later got mentions by the fintwits....MGNI, MBIO, WWR, MVIS, to name a few. Pretty cool to be on the front end of these.
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Tibbers
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12:27p, 2/13/21
Do you guys have any method or tracker on triple 0 stocks? Those are fun to play to see one day explode. Just curious the best method of locating them.
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DisAg
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12:38p, 2/13/21
DisAg
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12:40p, 2/13/21
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kylewhitener
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In reply to Madmarttigan • 12:48p, 2/13/21
tv1113 said:

It seems like it's too simple to make money off of selling options, so what is the catch I guess


The catch is that selling puts and covered calls both limit your upside, while the potential downside is significant.

Let's say you have 100 shares of a stock worth $50, and you sell a covered call with a strike price of $55 and receive $100 in premium. The most you can make off of this trade is $600. Even if the stock doubles to $100 a share, you'll be selling your shares for $55. So $55-$50 x 100 shares, plus your premium you received of $100.
If that stock goes to $0, you're losing $4,900 (you keep the $100 premium but lose $5,000 on the stock.)

The thing to keep in mind about covered calls, is that if you're having to buy them back at a higher price, or if you're letting them exercise, you're rarely going to be losing money on the overall trade, you're just not going to be making as much as you would have made if you never sold the covered call. When you're 'losing money' on your covered call, the value increase in the underlying stock is almost always going to be greater than the 'loss' created from the covered call.
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Madmarttigan
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In reply to DisAg • 12:49p, 2/13/21
AG
If this is even partially true in the smallest way would be a wild ride for btc
Formerly tv1113
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0708aggie
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12:52p, 2/13/21
AG


Anyone looking at CBAT?
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