FbgTxAg said:
Question about "corrections." I don't think one is imminent, but I think we all agree one is probably due or overdue (although Cathie Woods disagrees), so my question is "how long would it take a stock like AAPL to recover from a 15-20% correction?
I'm not much into hedging as my portfolio is 100% for growth - I don't need this money anytime soon for anything, and I don't add to it. It has to grow itself.
Would a stock like AAPL not recover fairly quickly? Yes I understand that if I were 50% cash and the correction hit, or I had a bunch of hedges I would have a lot of buying power after a correction at lower prices, but each day you are 50% cash you are missing out on a fantastic, volatile market - opportunity before vs. opportunity after.
Anyway, just wondering if anyone has any thoughts on it. I assume most Macros would bounce back within a few weeks or a month at most, but perhaps I'm wrong?
You bring up Apple and I think it's an overrated stock.
I think companies with increasing revenue will be fine, as is typically the case. Apple I just don't think has that consistent growth certainty that they used to. They have to keep innovating with new inventions, and they certainly may, but they reach a point in market penetration where their growth becomes a function of population growth and not their ability to innovate.
I have a huge bias for software companies because of the monthly subscription model that has consumed the industry. Easily keeps up with inflation by raising subscription rates, often good software fills a need to and is unlikely to see a decline in use (always watch out for disruptive competition). Low R&D and scaling cost vs physical products, very high margin.
I'm personally attracted to companies like Microsoft, Adobe, ANSYS, Netflix... much more smooth revenue histories, where Apple has peaks and valleys in their recent earnings releases.
That stated, I haven't analyzed all of Apples revenue sources but their earnings history is up and down recently.