Wow that was a lot to catch up on. Bring on Monday!

gig em 02 said:

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backintexas2013 said:

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So VIX was up early tonight and now down a little. What are your thoughts?

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"If you arent trading futures then dont pay attention to them" Irish (RIP)

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He's here

We now have the upgraded model, Irish 2.0

So many want to continually make the stock market political but can never seem to actually pinpoint what actions are going to cause what and when.

Almost like you can't really predict it.

Mostly Foggy Recollection said:

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Ahem....

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if anything this has me bullish for the coming weeks. What would be helpful is the drop in SPX that corresponded to these volatility jumps. I checked most of the ones in the last 5 years, none were big drops, just all necessary pullbacks.

3685 recaptured in futures, whoot whoot!

Proposition Joe said:

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So many want to continually make the stock market political but can never seem to actually pinpoint what actions are going to cause what and when.

Almost like you can't really predict it.

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January 20, 2021 - Joe Biden ignorantly cancels the keystone pipeline and destroys 50,000 jobs.
January 20, 2021 - January 29, 2021 - XOP, XOM, HAL, RDS, BP etc. drop 10%

Go back and look at OA's calls on MOMO after The Big Guy won. Completely political analysis. Completely correct.

Geez thought I would read a few posts before bedtime and a 3am rise to get this show on the road. Had to double check I wasn't on a Premium game day thread after the first 3 and out.

It's a long game. Buckle up, be disciplined, stick to the fundamentals and lets go.

gig em 02 said:

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Proposition Joe said:

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So many want to continually make the stock market political but can never seem to actually pinpoint what actions are going to cause what and when.

Almost like you can't really predict it.

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January 20, 2021 - Joe Biden ignorantly cancels the keystone pipeline and destroys 50,000 jobs.
January 20, 2021 - January 29, 2021 - XOP, XOM, HAL, RDS, BP etc. drop 10%

Go back and look at OA's calls on MOMO after The Big Guy won. Completely political analysis. Completely correct.

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I think we have all learned OA is a rare breed.

The majority of the other political market predictions in the thread amount to confirmation bias about the market tanking because something they didn't like politically happened (or is going to happen), and some natural and/or un-related spike or dip in the market at an undetermined time in the future is given the attribution.

Holy smokes, I just had to read 150 posts on a Sunday!

Jet Black said:

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Futures green

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Stonk witchcraft!

I'm not one to be super optimistic based on futures but damn if that wasn't one hell of a turn around.

McInnis 03 said:

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3 ways to purchase stock:
1) buy shares outright (simple, no strings attached)
2) buy calls (strings attached, you paid extra for the shares in premium, normally only makes sense above strike and with premium added in)
3) sell puts (strings attached, you got premium for the guarantee that you're buying if it's below your strike)

3 ways to sell stock:
1) sell shares outright (simple, no strings attached)
2) buy puts (strings attached, you paid extra for the selling ability in premium, normally only makes sense when shares below strike and with premium subtracted)
3) sell calls (strings attached, you got premium for the guarantee that you're selling if it's above your strike)

It took me awhile to get a mental grip on calls and puts, both long and short

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If I could bookmark a single post, this would be it. I still almost understood about half of it.

I'd be curious to read up on the history of options at some point. Sounds so much more complicated than just buying stonks.

Philip J Fry said:

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McInnis 03 said:

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3 ways to purchase stock:
1) buy shares outright (simple, no strings attached)
2) buy calls (strings attached, you paid extra for the shares in premium, normally only makes sense above strike and with premium added in)
3) sell puts (strings attached, you got premium for the guarantee that you're buying if it's below your strike)

3 ways to sell stock:
1) sell shares outright (simple, no strings attached)
2) buy puts (strings attached, you paid extra for the selling ability in premium, normally only makes sense when shares below strike and with premium subtracted)
3) sell calls (strings attached, you got premium for the guarantee that you're selling if it's above your strike)

It took me awhile to get a mental grip on calls and puts, both long and short

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If I could bookmark a single post, this would be it. I still almost understood about half of it.

I'd be curious to read up on the history of options at some point. Sounds so much more complicated than just buying stonks.

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For the life of me I cannot grasp this yet. Been doing well with regular calls so perhaps I should just stick to that.

That would jive with where many pros predicted the 2021 top will be... 4500 S&P

Interesting. Thanks for that tweet.

Mostly Foggy Recollection said:

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That would jive with where many pros predicted the 2021 top will be... 4500 S&P

Interesting. Thanks for that tweet.

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So professional stock guys are saying 4500, but your lobbyist is saying 700? Something has to give here. What big thing is coming that we aren't seeing? China calling in our debt?

Proposition Joe said:

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Philip J Fry said:

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Mostly Foggy Recollection said:

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That would jive with where many pros predicted the 2021 top will be... 4500 S&P

Interesting. Thanks for that tweet.

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So professions stock guys are saying 4500, but your lobbyist is saying 700? Something has to give here. What big thing is coming that we aren't seeing? China calling in our debt?

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He said his lobbyist was saying worst case scenario.

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This. My worst case scenario was 2000.

That's if what was relayed to me came to fruition. Until it does, it's all a mental gymnastics exercise.

I'll say this... absolutely nothing would surprise me in 2021. I think you all share that sentiment.

PearlJammin said:

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Philip J Fry said:

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McInnis 03 said:

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3 ways to purchase stock:
1) buy shares outright (simple, no strings attached)
2) buy calls (strings attached, you paid extra for the shares in premium, normally only makes sense above strike and with premium added in)
3) sell puts (strings attached, you got premium for the guarantee that you're buying if it's below your strike)

3 ways to sell stock:
1) sell shares outright (simple, no strings attached)
2) buy puts (strings attached, you paid extra for the selling ability in premium, normally only makes sense when shares below strike and with premium subtracted)
3) sell calls (strings attached, you got premium for the guarantee that you're selling if it's above your strike)

It took me awhile to get a mental grip on calls and puts, both long and short

---

If I could bookmark a single post, this would be it. I still almost understood about half of it.

I'd be curious to read up on the history of options at some point. Sounds so much more complicated than just buying stonks.

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For the life of me I cannot grasp this yet. Been doing well with regular calls so perhaps I should just stick to that.

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I am teaching a friend of mine selling covered calls via SNDL. It has weekly options, is a dirt cheap stock (under $1, but maybe not for long). So you could practice weekly or even more on this one. Sell CC's on the rips, buy them back on the dips. Do that with 100 shares or whatever you are comfortable with. Or if you want more shares (to sell half on the next rip for net free), that's a great strategy as well.

Now with the next bit, sell 1 put on SNDL. You could sell the $1 put for this week and potentially get assigned. Just do this with 1 contract, see how it works. This might also need adjusting. If it runs in the a.m., you may end up selling the 1.50 or the $2 (something close to the money).

3rd, buy 2 SNDL calls. Go for $1.50 maybe, depending on SP in the a.m. Idea would be to buy them before it runs hard, then sell 1 into strength (ideally for a double, boom you are net free).

Practice for me helps make all of this make sense. I could have read it 100 times and still had the confused stare of a cow looking at a new gate.

Proposition Joe said:

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Philip J Fry said:

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Yes, I understand that. Also said 2000.

I'm still hung up on what would cause that kind of crash?

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A Godzilla v Mothra type scenario stateside.

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Spyder man from F-16 has been right all along