FB now my turn to chart what I think I see...
Daily chart, looks like it's winding up, but not this week, I think before the end of the year though.

With BTC being so volatile and currently spiking, I'm afraid I'm going to end up getting burned with MARA. I'm in shares for $3 avg and have all shares covered with March '21 $9 & $10 calls.

It's not the worst position to be in, but with these calls being almost ITM already it leaves me with a feeling of being stuck with the trade (still a very profitable one at that) for the next 3 months. I could easily see BTC (and subsequently MARA) cooling off over the next few months and not being able to fully capitalize on this crazy run up (MARA is up 178% over the last month). If it doesn't cool off I don't have any reason to complain, but hopefully it'll settle right at $8.99.

Part of me wonders if the expensive (at the time) far OTM calls should have been a 'sign' that this was coming for MARA. For example, a month ago when shares were just over $3, the March '21 $9 calls were going for $1.25. That's a call that represents 41% of the share price for a strike price 3x share price 5 months away. Seemed like a no brainer to sell at the time.....now it makes you think...

McInnis 03 said:

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Are those bands similar to Dan shapiros setup?

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I dunno what he does. Mine are 21 period keltner channel exponential averages at par, 1, 2, and 3 standard deviations

Nickw8586 said:

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Not a big poster here, but appreciate the insight this thread has shared. I have been watching FEAC and I think it has a good chance to run. They are merging with Skillz, an online gaming platform that seems to have small market share but is widely accepted as one of the best platforms for gaming/gambling. $250m in cash in the bank thanks to investments from large firms and no debt. The ticker changes tomorrow to SKLZ due to the merger. Is anyone else following this? Am I wrong to like this? Thanks for any feedback.

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I've noticed lots of volume. Hopefully someone with more experience will chime in. It popped earlier and has been slowly coiling I think but looking for confirmation.

Anyone got any nice accumulation picks? This strategy has been gold for me especially of late with MARA and ALPP.

BREwmaster said:

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oldarmy1 said:

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Bear Put spread hedge tomorrow that takes us through Friday into Monday. The spread is cheaper than buying straight Puts. I think whatever is going to happen on the election front happens sometime Friday, and if it does I think all heck breaks loose.

Based on close today those would be to sell Dec 21 $364 Put. Buy the Dec 21 $367 Put.

Price works out to around $0.71 ($71/spread).

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this is genius. I'm in, holding too much for comfort honestly and the spread helps neutralize the crazy premiums on SPY.

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My SPY plays right now are 1) a semi-calendar diagonal: 12/30 368C and sold today a 12/18 370C. Ideally, get to eat all the premium and then repeat with a 12/24. 2) 370/360/350P butterfly 12/24

Orlando Ayala Cant Read said:

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Anyone got any nice accumulation picks? This strategy has been gold for me especially of late with MARA and ALPP.

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CELH

FB - I'd like to see it dip to 265. EMA cross could drive price down vs. up.



There is also this, which I am excited about. I'm short FB at the moment.

$30,000 Millionaire said:

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Orlando Ayala Cant Read said:

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Anyone got any nice accumulation picks? This strategy has been gold for me especially of late with MARA and ALPP.

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CELH

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Will take a look in the morning. Thanks!

Can you help me understand what I'm looking at with that 'max pain' chart? I've been trying to make sense of it but haven't quite got to it.

$30,000 Millionaire said:

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McInnis 03 said:

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Are those bands similar to Dan shapiros setup?

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I dunno what he does. Mine are 21 period keltner channel exponential averages at par, 1, 2, and 3 standard deviations

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Yeah, similar concept. Dan's moving averages and bollinger bands act as points of support/resistance similar to the ATR plotted via the keltner channels which kind of act the same. I use 13 sma with 1.5 and 3 ATR since it's a lagging indicator like Carter recommended. I'll use it to position swing plays and longer dated options when we've reverted back to the mean and look to bounce again, scaling out at 1 ATR and so on.

NRD09 said:

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Think they announced it last week? Don't care. Want settlement.

NRD09 said:

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zest announces intent to 5:1 reverse split, stock goes up? Guess it's good news that they are doing it to try and get listed on a "national exchange"

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All seems to be to add pressure for WMT to finish this. Uplist should be for stability in Ecoark after Zest is bought out. Uplist should be approved end of year. Split doesn't change anything for us shareholders as far as % of the pie. I expect a nice price jump once uplist is finalized and potentially may happen at the same time buyout takes place.

Orlando Ayala Cant Read said:

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Anyone got any nice accumulation picks? This strategy has been gold for me especially of late with MARA and ALPP.

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It's working pretty well with trvn. I buy any time it gets into the 2.3 range, trim some at 3ish

Max pain is the point where options holders collectively lose the most money. Expiration day can gravitate towards this max pain number

They gapped amzn over 3247. If it stays above, man can it run

$30,000 Millionaire said:

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It's the number one thing I look at along with volume. Shows trend, how extended a move is, and how long since the stock has reverted to the mean, which everything does.

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Ok 30k (and anyone else of course please chime in) got one for you to see if I am applying the bands correctly. I set up Keltner Channels at par 1, 2 & 3 and also have within the 8/21/50 EMA I just left from an earlier chart setup do disregard those dotted lines for now.

This is $VIAC and if applying the methodology correctly using the daily.....

We are ascending, bounced off the upper band a week ago, retraced and now bounced off the mean (2nd time in about 6 weeks), reclaimed the 8/21, confirming a bull flag for potential continuation with daily volume remaining increasing. Thoughts?

What expiration date on these? You go a month out?

CrazyRichAggie said:

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What expiration date on these? You go a month out?

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December 21st from the initial tweet.

Thanks. Never done a trade like this. What % of your portfolio do you expose?

CrazyRichAggie said:

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Thanks. Never done a trade like this. What % of your portfolio do you expose?

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Not more than 5% of weekly profits is what I remember being OA's prior guidance.

wanderer said:

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With BTC being so volatile and currently spiking, I'm afraid I'm going to end up getting burned with MARA. I'm in shares for $3 avg and have all shares covered with March '21 $9 & $10 calls.

It's not the worst position to be in, but with these calls being almost ITM already it leaves me with a feeling of being stuck with the trade (still a very profitable one at that) for the next 3 months. I could easily see BTC (and subsequently MARA) cooling off over the next few months and not being able to fully capitalize on this crazy run up (MARA is up 178% over the last month). If it doesn't cool off I don't have any reason to complain, but hopefully it'll settle right at $8.99.

Part of me wonders if the expensive (at the time) far OTM calls should have been a 'sign' that this was coming for MARA. For example, a month ago when shares were just over $3, the March '21 $9 calls were going for $1.25. That's a call that represents 41% of the share price for a strike price 3x share price 5 months away. Seemed like a no brainer to sell at the time.....now it makes you think...

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OOPS

It's about to blast through $10 PM.

That is correct. It's a hedge into and over a weekend against a backdrop of a solid rise of markets into the 45 day mark of the Executive Order on election interference coming tomorrow. Will Trump invoke that tomorrow? If he does all heck will commence.

But it's a hedge meaning natural market trend absent some significant event will rise your portfolio but make the edge a small loss. We could also catch a short term pullback. Regardless today is a good day to put hedges in even if we move higher into any news tomorrow. I would use 3% of profits today and add 2% on any opening gap up tomorrow.

backintexas2013 said:

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BTC over $21,000.

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It's almost to $23K now...

oldarmy1 said:

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NIO continuation into the money.

FJ- check your CDE.

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Geez I didn't even have an alert set for that one as I just accumulated some shares with ave of $7.54. It is in my tax deferred account and 'set it and forgot it'. Probably should set an alert huh?

Will AMD hit that $100 today?

Fingers crossed. If it does and doesn't flash above $101 I would take only a % off because typically the 2nd break moves harder.

Thundergon said:

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Tomorrow could be a monster day. MSFT, NFLX, AAPL all look great for an explosive continuation move. There's one other little guy that if he can get over a really small 3250 hurdle could probably run 150 points fairly quickly...

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Think we can add ROKU to this list?

It's over $23,000 now. Nuts. When is the pullback? It was $18,000 one week ago.

backintexas2013 said:

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It's over $23,000 now. Nuts. When is the pullback? It was $18,000 one week ago.

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I'm not sure we'll see one that's significant. My father was even about to start buying into GBTC a few days ago. He's a salty 68 year old man who recognizes it's potential and wants to play in it.