Stock Markets
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Last: 14 min ago by Heineken-Ashi
Not adding but not sellingE said:
OA, are you adding any to your 11/20 GRWG $22.5's?
Good point, I hadn't thought about that. I bet we know pretty quickly and I have a feeling SCOTUS might not even need to step in. We're way ahead of schedule vs 2016.ClutchCityAg said:I also put a small bet on Trump popular vote.. I just hope they wait to send payouts until after the SCOTUS throws out the illegal/late ballotsBREwmaster said:don't worry, the burn is coming! I put my money down on MI and WI today, Vegas has already figured out (that and lines have probably been bet up on FL and PA - cat is out of the bag on those).Prognightmare said:I'm not worried about it but people that don't follow the market and just work their jobs will get home and won't sleep soundly because the market is cratering. This is all political bull**** and I hope the dems burn in the election.FJ43 said:
Watch and listen to OA's nephew again and it will get you all sorted out.
also small bet on Trump popular vote and bigger on POTUS straight up.
GOCO is going to be flirting with single digits here pretty soon.
AMZN IV is 66%, proceed with caution if you all are playing earnings.
I got an email from Vanguard this morning that GOCO is being investigated for securities fraud. Anyone else receive something like this?
hmmmmm no bueno
Let it Ride
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hagens-berman-national-trial-attorneys-181500824.htmlShundere said:
I got an email from Vanguard this morning that GOCO is being investigated for securities fraud. Anyone else receive something like this?
https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2020/10/29/2116471/0/en/SHAREHOLDER-ALERT-CLAIMSFILER-REMINDS-BMRN-COTY-GOCO-NKLA-INVESTORS-of-Lead-Plaintiff-Deadline-in-Class-Action-Lawsuits.htmlShundere said:
I got an email from Vanguard this morning that GOCO is being investigated for securities fraud. Anyone else receive something like this?
This?
Let it Ride
Pretty sure that's a bs lawsuit?
That is the one.
VALE with a little volume
OSTK wtf
ONTX with a spike
No idea what is going on with OSTK...
They saw I was up 3% on the day and decided -1.5% was betterTriumphForks said:
No idea what is going on with OSTK...
OSTK decommitted from the Khaos.
It is time for NIO to go hit that uppor Bolli band on the daily.
Anyone got any suggestions on playing AMZN on earnings?
OSTK shat on the recruiting directors desk on the way outPrognightmare said:
OSTK decommitted from the Khaos.
Did anyone else take advantage of the Motley Fool's recommendation for Inphi? I went on ahead and picked it up at $122. Looks like Marvell is buying it now.
Sometimes you just get lucky.
Sometimes you just get lucky.
"But it is easier to purchase products that denote superiority than to be actually superior in economic achievement." - Thomas J. Stanley
Get you a paywall blocker. They have some add-ins for mozilla firefox
When market volatility, as measured by the Cboe Volatility Index or VIX, hit an all-time high of 82.69 on March 16, Rob Emrich's phones were ringing off the hook.
In 2017, Emrich, the founder of Acruence Capital, had launched a "volatility capture program," which is aimed at capturing both rare market events and everyday spikes in volatility.
"When I built the volatility program, it was modeled for the VIX to hit 70 because we thought the VIX could hit 70," he said in an interview. "I had people telling me that I was crazy that the market would never see the VIX hit that high again because there are too many precautions that have been taken by regulators and that would never happen."
Of course, the VIX did hit that level in March this year and even broke above its previous all-time high of 80.74 during the 2008 financial crisis.
That level of volatility, combined with the fastest 20% decline in markets, had Emrich fielding calls from anxious clients who could not believe how fast their retirement assets were shrinking away.
"At that point, it was too late to hedge," he said. "It's like when the house is on fire and you are trying to get house insurance."
But for the clients who had hedged in advance using his volatility capture program, Emrich did well by them.
He bought VIX options at a $17 strike price in mid-February and held until expiration on March 18 when he sold them at $69.76, leading to a 3,700% gain during a 30-day period timeframe.
"Depending on the account, that could translate into a 5% or 10% gain in that account, but it's a very powerful tool," he said. "We figured out a way to give someone a balance or anchor in their portfolio to protect them, yet let them stay invested, let them sleep at night."
The VIX could hit 125 in the next 4 to 6 months
While the VIX has dialed back from its March highs, Emrich's model is now indicating that the index could hit a never-seen-before level of 125.
He looked back to historical OEX options or S&P 100 options, which the Chicago Board Options Exchange has used to remodel what the VIX would like during market crashes such as Black Monday.
Then he took into consideration current market conditions as well as supply and demand dynamics.
"The fabric of the market is like a sheet. You are kind of stretching from all the corners and starting to get tears in it," he said. "The market when it's under stress lacks market participants, they just disappear."
He continued: "That coupled with the fact that we have trades that literally occur in two nanoseconds... given the proper catalyst and due to a lack of participants, the speed of the market, and speed of information, we feel like the opportunity is ripe for the market to see a VIX of about 125."
To be sure, Emrich is forecasting a 5% probability for the VIX to hit 125 in the next four to six months.
However, as of midday Wednesday, the VIX has been hovering around 40. The figure indicates rising nervousness about the markets in the days to come because historically 96% of VIX daily closing readings have been below 36, according to S&P Global's Chris Bennett.
For Emrich, the elevated volatility right now is due to a lack of supply in the marketplace, which is seeing less VIX call option volume or SPX put option volume than we had about a year ago.
But what's more alarming is that right now about 60% of all the volume on the VIX is on the put side, which means many investors are expecting the volatility to drop, according to Emrich.
"There are a lot of so-called bets being placed on volatility to drop. If there are some type of catalysts that would really act as a shock to throw this thing up, that means all these people who may be short volatility, if they're untapped or they don't have some type of exposure to long volatility at a higher level," he warned.
"Then they're going to have to have to buy it back to cover and it could cause a negative feedback loop, which would drive the VIX even higher."
Catalysts and opportunities
The catalysts that could drive the VIX to this extent are election-related risks, COVID-related risks, and geopolitical risks.
"We have election risks that could cause a catalyst. The secondary risk is with COVID as it looks like a vaccine may be further away than we think," Emrich said. "The third thing could be something geopolitical, whether it's things going on with China or Iran."
However, even if such a chaotic market event were to take place, investors should stay calm and try to seize the buying opportunities that would emerge.
"The first thing is to stay the course because we think the Fed and the government would act so fast that the market would recover," he said. "So if you have the stomach to do it, it would create tremendous buying opportunities."
He continued: "We think the buying would be incredible and force a bottom pretty quickly. And that would resolve itself probably within a couple of days."
With the elections less than a week away, the options market is pricing in a contested election, according to Emrich, who asks long-term investors to stay invested and try to mitigate the volatility in their portfolios.
"Whoever is the next president is going to need some stimulus whether it's in the form of infrastructure or just flat-out pure stimulus, the market is going to get that," he said. "This market could really run up so you don't want to be out of the market."
As for mitigating volatility, he said investors should simply abide by Warren Buffett's Noah Rule: "Predicting rain doesn't count, building an ark does."
When market volatility, as measured by the Cboe Volatility Index or VIX, hit an all-time high of 82.69 on March 16, Rob Emrich's phones were ringing off the hook.
In 2017, Emrich, the founder of Acruence Capital, had launched a "volatility capture program," which is aimed at capturing both rare market events and everyday spikes in volatility.
"When I built the volatility program, it was modeled for the VIX to hit 70 because we thought the VIX could hit 70," he said in an interview. "I had people telling me that I was crazy that the market would never see the VIX hit that high again because there are too many precautions that have been taken by regulators and that would never happen."
Of course, the VIX did hit that level in March this year and even broke above its previous all-time high of 80.74 during the 2008 financial crisis.
That level of volatility, combined with the fastest 20% decline in markets, had Emrich fielding calls from anxious clients who could not believe how fast their retirement assets were shrinking away.
"At that point, it was too late to hedge," he said. "It's like when the house is on fire and you are trying to get house insurance."
But for the clients who had hedged in advance using his volatility capture program, Emrich did well by them.
He bought VIX options at a $17 strike price in mid-February and held until expiration on March 18 when he sold them at $69.76, leading to a 3,700% gain during a 30-day period timeframe.
"Depending on the account, that could translate into a 5% or 10% gain in that account, but it's a very powerful tool," he said. "We figured out a way to give someone a balance or anchor in their portfolio to protect them, yet let them stay invested, let them sleep at night."
The VIX could hit 125 in the next 4 to 6 months
While the VIX has dialed back from its March highs, Emrich's model is now indicating that the index could hit a never-seen-before level of 125.
He looked back to historical OEX options or S&P 100 options, which the Chicago Board Options Exchange has used to remodel what the VIX would like during market crashes such as Black Monday.
Then he took into consideration current market conditions as well as supply and demand dynamics.
"The fabric of the market is like a sheet. You are kind of stretching from all the corners and starting to get tears in it," he said. "The market when it's under stress lacks market participants, they just disappear."
He continued: "That coupled with the fact that we have trades that literally occur in two nanoseconds... given the proper catalyst and due to a lack of participants, the speed of the market, and speed of information, we feel like the opportunity is ripe for the market to see a VIX of about 125."
To be sure, Emrich is forecasting a 5% probability for the VIX to hit 125 in the next four to six months.
However, as of midday Wednesday, the VIX has been hovering around 40. The figure indicates rising nervousness about the markets in the days to come because historically 96% of VIX daily closing readings have been below 36, according to S&P Global's Chris Bennett.
For Emrich, the elevated volatility right now is due to a lack of supply in the marketplace, which is seeing less VIX call option volume or SPX put option volume than we had about a year ago.
But what's more alarming is that right now about 60% of all the volume on the VIX is on the put side, which means many investors are expecting the volatility to drop, according to Emrich.
"There are a lot of so-called bets being placed on volatility to drop. If there are some type of catalysts that would really act as a shock to throw this thing up, that means all these people who may be short volatility, if they're untapped or they don't have some type of exposure to long volatility at a higher level," he warned.
"Then they're going to have to have to buy it back to cover and it could cause a negative feedback loop, which would drive the VIX even higher."
Catalysts and opportunities
The catalysts that could drive the VIX to this extent are election-related risks, COVID-related risks, and geopolitical risks.
"We have election risks that could cause a catalyst. The secondary risk is with COVID as it looks like a vaccine may be further away than we think," Emrich said. "The third thing could be something geopolitical, whether it's things going on with China or Iran."
However, even if such a chaotic market event were to take place, investors should stay calm and try to seize the buying opportunities that would emerge.
"The first thing is to stay the course because we think the Fed and the government would act so fast that the market would recover," he said. "So if you have the stomach to do it, it would create tremendous buying opportunities."
He continued: "We think the buying would be incredible and force a bottom pretty quickly. And that would resolve itself probably within a couple of days."
With the elections less than a week away, the options market is pricing in a contested election, according to Emrich, who asks long-term investors to stay invested and try to mitigate the volatility in their portfolios.
"Whoever is the next president is going to need some stimulus whether it's in the form of infrastructure or just flat-out pure stimulus, the market is going to get that," he said. "This market could really run up so you don't want to be out of the market."
As for mitigating volatility, he said investors should simply abide by Warren Buffett's Noah Rule: "Predicting rain doesn't count, building an ark does."
MRVL is a great longterm stock to just park funds like IRAs or custodial accounts.RightWingConspirator said:
Did anyone else take advantage of the Motley Fool's recommendation for Inphi? I went on ahead and picked it up at $122. Looks like Marvell is buying it now.
Sometimes you just get lucky.
THANKS!
MBIO trending in the right direction.
I'm buying this dip.Prognightmare said:
OSTK decommitted from the Khaos.
Buying covered stock with the 80C in NOV20 being my cover. Getting shares for $63.xx average.
Bought AAPL covered stock yesterday, can't decide if I want to hold it tonight......anyone here upgrade their iphone in the last 3 months?
McInnis 03 said:I'm buying this dip.Prognightmare said:
OSTK decommitted from the Khaos.
Buying covered stock with the 80C in NOV20 being my cover. Getting shares for $63.xx average.
I've got covered calls out to 12/18, so I'm mostly just bellyaching. Still well in the profit zone for my cost basis
Maybe a dumb question, but you already own the 11/20 80C and are buying shares? Or you sold that as a covered call on your shares you already own?McInnis 03 said:I'm buying this dip.Prognightmare said:
OSTK decommitted from the Khaos.
Buying covered stock with the 80C in NOV20 being my cover. Getting shares for $63.xx average.
I'm eyeing to sell the 11/20 70P for a whopping $10. Worst case is assignment of shares at a good price ($60)
Chickened out and ended up selling a safer 11/20 OSTK 50/60 put spread for $3.30
AT&T is offering the 12 for free with trade in, so a few on the family account are!
Let it Ride
wanderer said:Maybe a dumb question, but you already own the 11/20 80C and are buying shares? Or you sold that as a covered call on your shares you already own?McInnis 03 said:I'm buying this dip.Prognightmare said:
OSTK decommitted from the Khaos.
Buying covered stock with the 80C in NOV20 being my cover. Getting shares for $63.xx average.
I'm eyeing to sell the 11/20 70P for a whopping $10. Worst case is assignment of shares at a good price ($60)
Closed all my OSTK positions this morning.
Now at $66, I'm buying 100 shares while selling the 80C at the same time top lower cost and hedge a little more downward movement
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