There are a number of pharma companies working on a vaccine, all in or about to start Phase 3 trials.
Off the top of my head:
Moderna
JNJ
Pfizer
AstroZeneca

Thing is there'll be room in the market for all of them, provided they're all similarly priced and similarly effective.
Pfizer has said they'd have several million doses ready by 2021, and could produce 1.2B in 2021.
If all four of the above companies do that (and I'm not certain Moderna has the infrastructure for that), then you get a majority of the world covered in a year.

But I also suspect that this is not going to be a lifetime of immunity from one vaccination. I bet that we'll see recommendations for it to be yearly. And, in one of the studies (I think the MRNA one), patients received 2 vaccinations a month apart.

So yeah, all of these companies are going to have a lot of news flowing out over the next 6-12 months about study results, governmental approvals, and manufacturing updates. But there's plenty of business to be had for all involved.

zest just launched some.

topher06 said:

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$30,000 Millionaire said:

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59 South said:

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um cough cough, don't forget all the miles used for free vacations and the subsequent travel 'status' weiner measuring competitions over extravagant dinners, all expensed of course.

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my annual travel spend exceeds $100K. It's been $0 for 5 months.

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Yeah mine is likely around there, all in with hotels and stuff. My best friend spends several hundred thousand per year just on airline tickets, and he has been $0 for 5 months with no plans to travel the remainder of the year.

These are all just anecdotes, but does anyone have an anecdote of a regular traveler who is still regularly traveling? Has relatively firm plans to return to traveling in 2020 (at least refundable tickets booked)?

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I run a fairly large organization in fortune 100. I banned travel for my entire team through the rest of the year. I have a couple of friends who are consulting partners at the big firms and everyone I know is not performing any kind of business travel.

McInnis 03 said:

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Word of warning. SPY gap fade play is right on the cusp of being a full position go, and with VIX being close to 30, the volume really is about where it needs to be in order to play a full gap fill.

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50% gap fill complete......can take some off here if that's your play. Move a stop where you want to lock in no loss if you can.

next year most likely. I'm guessing the brits will quarantine americans.

docaggie said:

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There are a number of pharma companies working on a vaccine, all in or about to start Phase 3 trials.
Off the top of my head:
Moderna
JNJ
Pfizer
AstroZeneca

Thing is there'll be room in the market for all of them, provided they're all similarly priced and similarly effective.
Pfizer has said they'd have several million doses ready by 2021, and could produce 1.2B in 2021.
If all four of the above companies do that (and I'm not certain Moderna has the infrastructure for that), then you get a majority of the world covered in a year.

But I also suspect that this is not going to be a lifetime of immunity from one vaccination. I bet that we'll see recommendations for it to be yearly. And, in one of the studies (I think the MRNA one), patients received 2 vaccinations a month apart.

So yeah, all of these companies are going to have a lot of news flowing out over the next 6-12 months about study results, governmental approvals, and manufacturing updates. But there's plenty of business to be had for all involved.

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But how much credence do you give to the reports they're issuing? Obviously, there is massive financial incentive for these companies to be the first to market, and they aren't just in this to make the world a healthier place. Are these reports more like an 80% chance of ultimate success in 2020 or a 25% chance of success sometime in 2021?

I understand nothing you say is professional advice, I just have no idea how to interpret potentially-financial-driven releases from pharma companies.

off topic, kinda. I've been concierge key on AAL for about 5 years in a row (for those wondering, it's just about how much you spend, normally $40K+ gets you there). Part of the program is that you get a special phone number and they do a lot fo be accommodative. Everything else about AA is awful, so this is nice. They have been calling pretty regularly to ask if they can help book any travel and to give speeches on all of their safety protocols, talk about promos they're running etc. I think they're in trouble.

I primarily fly Southwest and United domestically but American has point blank called and asked my counterparts when they expect to be traveling again. I think theyre trying to get an idea of what type of hole theyre looking at long term.

AgShaun00 said:

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zest just launched some.

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aaand it's right back down

Woof, everything tech for me is starting to slip.

McInnis 03 said:

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Woof, everything tech for me is starting to slip.

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No kidding, all tech is getting pummeled. Probably just part of a normal rotation out of the recent tech pump, but guessing we won't see any of those people that posted their $30k/day gains on tech weeklies held overnight mention their losses during the pullback.

Anyone holding MGM $18.50 7/24 calls? What's your target?

AUDJPY is about to flip from what was a very large green candle today to what may become a red candle......rug pull possible........ VIX climbing, VOLSPD dropping......TICK trending lower.......

CrazyRichAggie said:

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AgShaun00 said:

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zest just launched some.

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aaand it's right back down

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i have a second account where i buy at 3 and try to sell at 3.65. I saw it pop to 3.85 and trying to find news on it and by the time i didn't, it came back down. been a great quick flip.

Perfectly executed gap fill on ES. Shorted from 3232, covered at 3194.

The studies released show a good immune response to the vaccine.
The caveat is the same I said a few months back when the first company released a report on their phase 1 trial.
It's small numbers of people and they're measuring antibodies.

The real test is when you have large numbers of people - not just health volunteers- get the vaccine and see whether they get COVID or not. It seems like the antibodies produced are ones that will confer immunity to COVID, but the only way to really know is to see how it does in against the actual virus.

It seems to me like the market response to these studies being released is going to become more muted over time. Everyone goes nuts for the first couple, but by the fifth or sixth company that publishes results leading into their phase 3 trial, I imagine the market will be a bit jaded on the news.

Claiming a short within 4 ticks of the AH high requires screen cap proof

aggiedaniel06 said:

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Perfectly executed gap fill on ES. Shorted from 3232, covered at 3194.

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woah. Nice.

Bretton Gekko said:

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Claiming a short within 4 ticks of the AH high requires screen cap proof

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lol. Honestly, for me, I've been doing SPXU and SPXS the last three times it got near 3240. Been a big winner intraday all three times.

I don't think I'll go 4 for 4 next time, but I'll take it!

McInnis 03 said:

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AUDJPY is about to flip from what was a very large green candle today to what may become a red candle......rug pull possible........ VIX climbing, VOLSPD dropping......TICK trending lower.......

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My savvy market analysis may have saved the day!

NRD09 said:

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that's cool if it closes above my upper strike, but if it closes between my strikes, "executing the closing transaction" means selling me my shares at 104...I did 8 of these and I don't have 80k in cash. I don't even think I have 80k in margin. right?

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the brokerage will still execute. Either sell to close the option contracts or take assignment then put in a sell order of the equity.

Ah, it should read 3223. The gap fill play was ripe for the taking.

thirdcoast said:

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Anyone holding MGM $18.50 7/24 calls? What's your target?

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I was holding January $15 C and January $27 C

Sold the remaining $15s this morning for almost a four-bagger. Riding with the $27s for now (I bought them on the way down, so am just now even money.

For some reason the TSLA 1 month chart looks like someone raised their middle finger

aggiedaniel06 said:

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Hope that guy who had enough AMZN calls to pay off his student loans sold last week!

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Please tell me someone PUT amazon at 3300

Hello WKEY

JimSA said:

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For some reason the TSLA 1 month chart looks like someone raised their middle finger

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If anybody was going to do this, it'd be Elon

ok that would be nice...prefer not to go into a weekend margin called

McInnis 03 said:

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aggiedaniel06 said:

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Hope that guy who had enough AMZN calls to pay off his student loans sold last week!

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Please tell me someone PUT amazon at 3300

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AMZN 08/21/2020 1800.00 P - Down 83% since purchase

AMZN 08/21/2020 2000.00 P - Up 39% since purchase

I was more than a little early on the hedging, but I am not planning on selling the underlying AMZN stock in my IRA anytime soon.

It looks ripe to flush to 2900.

So for ONTX, what is the timeline that they have to get back above $1? I know that's still the expectation, but haven't heard much about it since they opted out of the RS. I'm considering buying more with the price being lower than what I was able to get in at, but curious what the board thinks on it.

59 South said:

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It looks ripe to flush to 2900.

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I know

Short Tech, Long Value was the play this week. I didnt short AMZN but I have utterly trashed the Cloud names.

Like I have been saying the past few days, you can be directionally neutral and still be very profitable.

aggiedaniel06 said:

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Short Tech, Long Value was the play this week. I didnt short AMZN but I have utterly trashed the Cloud names.

Like I have been saying the past few days, you can be directionally neutral and still be very profitable.

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Yeah, I probably should have paid attention to that. I'm still ok on ADBE and ADSK spreads, CRWD is dicey, and DDOG is sucking along with FTNT but there's a cpl days left.