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Last: 1 hr ago by Josepi
C and JPM report before the bell tomorrow. That should be enough to know.
More that the content of the earnings, I just want to see how the street reacts to it.
More that the content of the earnings, I just want to see how the street reacts to it.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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Ugly day for me. That's what stops is for. I still feel like I got falcon punched. Right it the baby maker.
Thanks.
Just thinking through it at a high level. If good earnings, and Wall Street jumps, confirms short term bullish.
If good earnings and street doesn't jump, medium term bearish,
If bad earnings and street still jumps, medium+ term bullish
If bad earnings and street dumps, bearish for awhile.
Just thinking through it at a high level. If good earnings, and Wall Street jumps, confirms short term bullish.
If good earnings and street doesn't jump, medium term bearish,
If bad earnings and street still jumps, medium+ term bullish
If bad earnings and street dumps, bearish for awhile.
The wildcard will be in other states shutdown like CA, imo.
I expect other blue state governors will also close down, but if a red state governor shuts down, the market might really selloff on that type news.
I expect other blue state governors will also close down, but if a red state governor shuts down, the market might really selloff on that type news.
Don't live in Texas but more than a handful of friends from there seem to think a lockdown is coming.
If true, that would be bad for the markets.
Yikes. I didn't know we were at the point of expecting some states to shut down. I figured worst we would see is schools staying remote, and college sports cancelled.Prognightmare said:
The wildcard will be in other states shutdown like CA, imo.
I expect other blue state governors will also close down, but if a red state governor shuts down, the market might really selloff on that type news.
BREwmaster said:
I feel like the fed will fight to keep it to the spy equivalent of 285-295. I'm almost wandering if the fed pumping has hurt the economy in that it hasnt made it more obvious to the coronabros the damage that is being done to the economy and the real cost of say 50-100k elderly lives.
great post, thank you sir!aggiedaniel06 said:
From a short term view, I'm actually directionally almost neutral. Was 60/40 bearish coming into today. Long financials, short tech, which worked out perfectly today. There is so much volatility that you can be long, both puts and calls and still make insane profits.
The only way SPX goes higher is if financials join the party, which we will find out within the next 3 days.
I also have some Sep/Oct SPY and TQQQ death puts & VIX calls in case we crash again. I do this everytime the PC ratio is this low.
If the street's reaction to bank earnings is horrible, I will go very bearish and can see us easily correcting back to the 2700's which will give the Fed and Congress the green light to unleash more QE, to then get a roaring rally into elections.
someone else mentioned this, but if Cali is going lockdown, other blue states will follow (no might about it) -- stonk related b/c stonks will not just go up anymore if that happens!
I added some SPXS shares today, a couple more VXX calls and a TWM call (russell short).
He sounds like a salesman in those tweets
Based on his SPY weekend tweets we are supposed to see all time highs by the end of the week..I would say doubtful at best
On the positive, SPY bounced off the 8 EMA today so hopefully we turn it around tonight
On the positive, SPY bounced off the 8 EMA today so hopefully we turn it around tonight
I have no f'ing clue what tomorrow will bring.
I'm encouraged (bear thesis) that after hours was up, but not up very much. VIX has been divergent most of the day, which was interesting as we made a higher high (intraday). That said, I wanted to see a larger reversal where today's close was below the intraday lows of last Friday (20 period high day by my count). 7 day average of deaths/cases for Covid is up, lots of talk about remote schools and shut downs. Consumer spending starting to pull back. Bond yields not confirming rally, high P/E multiple, you've heard it from me 10 times already. I will remind everyone that the bottom in March was off an intraday lower low. It really felt like capitulation today. Most other bears I know started to talk about throwing in the towel and going long because nothing mattered but FOMO.
Bull thesis: this is OPEX week, so anything can happen. I don't know where max pain is for OPEX. The banks, if earnings and outlooks are not as bad as expected, could drive a 3300 gap fill on the upside. Today could be a hellacious bear trap before higher highs. I'm guarded against that. I guess today intra day could have been a bull trap, but who the F knows. All I know is the tape looked pretty bearish at close.
I'm encouraged (bear thesis) that after hours was up, but not up very much. VIX has been divergent most of the day, which was interesting as we made a higher high (intraday). That said, I wanted to see a larger reversal where today's close was below the intraday lows of last Friday (20 period high day by my count). 7 day average of deaths/cases for Covid is up, lots of talk about remote schools and shut downs. Consumer spending starting to pull back. Bond yields not confirming rally, high P/E multiple, you've heard it from me 10 times already. I will remind everyone that the bottom in March was off an intraday lower low. It really felt like capitulation today. Most other bears I know started to talk about throwing in the towel and going long because nothing mattered but FOMO.
Bull thesis: this is OPEX week, so anything can happen. I don't know where max pain is for OPEX. The banks, if earnings and outlooks are not as bad as expected, could drive a 3300 gap fill on the upside. Today could be a hellacious bear trap before higher highs. I'm guarded against that. I guess today intra day could have been a bull trap, but who the F knows. All I know is the tape looked pretty bearish at close.
gougler08 said:
Based on his SPY weekend tweets we are supposed to see all time highs by the end of the week..I would say doubtful at best
On the positive, SPY bounced off the 8 EMA today so hopefully we turn it around tonight
I'm thinking a tuesday 21 day ema/vma test. That would put it down to high 300s for spy. This would also kill all those 7/17 calls.
TecRecAg said:
I'm no whale but holding $20k in options over a weekend seems a little insane, no?
All these guys posting huge gains are taking massive risk with whatever wealth they've built up. So far, many have caught lightning in a bottle, but I expect most of those will end up squandering whatever they've built and what they've started with chasing ever more risky assets.
khaos288 said:TecRecAg said:
I'm no whale but holding $20k in options over a weekend seems a little insane, no?
It's straight up gambling addiction for a lot of twitter's/wsb folks
And like all gambling addictions, the results are going to be devastating. Really hope everyone on this thread recognizes that even our best traders likely have a small part of their total wealth in long options.
topher06 said:khaos288 said:TecRecAg said:
I'm no whale but holding $20k in options over a weekend seems a little insane, no?
It's straight up gambling addiction for a lot of twitter's/wsb folks
And like all gambling addictions, the results are going to be devastating. Really hope everyone on this thread recognizes that even our best traders likely have a small part of their total wealth in long options.
Yup. Hopefully no one is neck deep in it at the moment staring at a portfolio of amzn weeklies that just dived 50%.
The most I ever hold in options is 10% of my portfolio, and that's usually "if this disappears, it won't kill me" type plays.
Yeah that's very true. Whether she is or isn't, my bet is someone else tries their hand at this and fails miserably.
JPM up so far this morning, will see how their call is received in an hour
Futures are tepid though. If this pattern holds, I'll be looking at adding more SPY puts at the open.gougler08 said:
JPM up so far this morning, will see how their call is received in an hour
If you thought Texas were going to shut down again.....by order. What would you do to your portfolio? What would you take a position in? How would you play TODAY?
CPI is up above expectations.
As weird as this sounds, I think that is good.
Remember OA1 said to look into SLV as an alt to gold.
As weird as this sounds, I think that is good.
Remember OA1 said to look into SLV as an alt to gold.
DPZ could be a good play. Also with earnings coming up they could get double good news.McInnis 03 said:
If you thought Texas were going to shut down again.....by order. What would you do to your portfolio? What would you take a position in? How would you play TODAY?
2nd this and add WING. Now that's a portfolio I could get behind.texagbeliever said:DPZ could be a good play. Also with earnings coming up they could get double good news.McInnis 03 said:
If you thought Texas were going to shut down again.....by order. What would you do to your portfolio? What would you take a position in? How would you play TODAY?
Anyone going to short tsla today?
59 South said:2nd this and add WING. Now that's a portfolio I could get behind.texagbeliever said:DPZ could be a good play. Also with earnings coming up they could get double good news.McInnis 03 said:
If you thought Texas were going to shut down again.....by order. What would you do to your portfolio? What would you take a position in? How would you play TODAY?
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