I enjoy both of y'all's contributions to the thread, but I read yours with an English accent now.

I also crave a pint of Guinness from Ireland because it tastes so much better over there.

59 and Daniel are top notch posters in my opinion. We need more from both!

I just post to share my knowledge with you guys. OA is hands down the legend as his stock picks are incredible.

I try and avoid giving stock or options picks because I would be doing a disservice to y'all because all my positions are always part of a larger strategy and also I am used to getting paid to do that

Also with options, how you handle your position is as important as what it is.

Now back to my rambling. The market is like a river that is always flowing. Always there, but never the same. That's why no strategy works over time. For example, being short volatility was the most profitable play for years until 2018 and then suddenly after volmageddon something changed.
The last 2 years being long vol has been the profitable play.

Have y'all noticed the surging trend of options trading on this thread and in general with retail and all the Twitter services? That's because being long options have paid out like never before. Opening strangles on SPY would have been hugely profitable these past two years (Backtested hedge fund data). The old adage of options buyers lose money 85% of the time suddenly wasn't true.

Even today, if you have a directionally neutral portfolio being long both puts and calls, you'll be profitable, which is incredible to someone who has been in this game for a while.

But guess what, that will change too, and when it does be ready to change.

It's funny, I was just thinking the other day that we need more debate here just to make things more interesting and for us all to learn more from each other. I woke up thinking things got out of hand last night but going back and reading through again, there was nothing 'wrong' or out of line posted at all from anyone. That is why this place is the best. If I'm ever out of line, please put me in my place.

Bottom line, I respect the hell out of almost all of you guys (haha not sure about you Prog, j/k ), and I have tons to learn, but I also feel convicted to share what I'm seeing and how I approach things because it is literally life changing stuff for me and my family, and it all started here mostly with OA's teachings a few years back. I really probably should learn more about fundementals and consider them more, maybe I shouldn't who knows (I do have them in the back of my mind most of the time).

Y'all have a great day. I'm off on a road trip!

$30,000 Millionaire said:

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59 and Daniel are top notch posters in my opinion. We need more from both!

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Wow, this means a lot 30k! I do honestly love your perspective. It keeps me thinking when my permabull head gets ahead of itself.

Well sadly I'm back. Made it halfway to our destination when the 6 year old went projectile vomit all over herself and the car. So things didn't work out per plan today so we turned around and came home to regroup for a reset. No biggie. Just like a bad trade! Except this required baths and some laundry

Anyways, I do realize I got a little animated and should clarify some things and strategies. Nothing is absolute and bullet proof, and the biggest thing is that everyone is in different situations so we're all doing different things with advice, posts, etc.

So just a PSA, keep that in mind when I and others post. Do not take everything posted as if it is the gospel. None of us are gonna be right all the time. BUT I will say that there are always many right answers. Those answers will never be the same, and they can be vastly different while also all still being 'right'.

For some transparency, I am not a professional at all. Some of you guys are, and that is great. I want to learn from you guys. I do not have an 'algo', and I don't use one single indicator alone like EMAs. I use a few very simple rules and indicators, and if they conflict, I usually don't act on them. But when they all line up such as recently with SQ, ROKU and JD, I confidently use the indicators to make decisions with calculated risk, and I always have an exit plan. I am just a guy that digs this stuff and have found some methods that have paid off tremendously. I assume that most everybody outside of a select few like Daniel and Clay are like me. That is who I am putting stuff out there for. Not professionals managing loads of money or OTHER people's money.

I also agree that in the end and long run fundamentals absolutely matter. When I say I ignore them, I mean I ignore them for day to day, week to week, month to month. When fundamentals line up with technicals, that's when you take more drastic and decisive action. They are not lined up right now obviously. But they can stay misaligned for years and years. And things will change over time. Change a lot... You can miss massive opportunities just stubbornly following one thing. It's all a big puzzle that is ever changing just like Daniel says with the river analogy. I'm pretty sure we all agree, but like texting with your significant other, reading words on a screen leaves things up for biased interpretations.

I am also overall about 20% cash and will probably always be at least 10% because that is responsible investing. I want at least some amount of money sidelined at all times in case of rare opportunities such as what happened in March. I would only ever go 100% cash or 100% in equities in extreme events.

I also have a lot of core funds in S&P index. Flows go in monthly and I don't usually mess with it unless rebalancing for time to time. I am mid career so this is my opportunity to make retirement enjoyable. I started out 15 or so years ago managing a net worth below zero.

I only own 6 individual stocks right now as I've said a few times. I've sold a lot of JD last week over 68. I kept some too that I may sell out of completely if it starts to look bad. ROKU, SQ, NIO and AMZN have all at least doubled in short times so I am patiently watching those (except for AMZN) to execute an exit plan. I am constantly monitoring and changing my plan. I am letting them run right now and not fighting momentum. To me, that is responsible. Only other is AMD and just entered it so watching it closely right now. When I exit those runners, I will leave in cash for the next opportunity.

Hope this clarifies some stuff for you guys!

TLDR; I think we all agree. I'm not a professional. This place is great!

Retail has been absolutely crushing it since March and probably outperforming most hedgefunds for the last 3 months.

But here is the thing, when you do this for a living, longevity and consistency are key. When you have to squeeze out 20% returns for decades on a billion dollars, it's not as simple.

It's the same fallacy of going to Vegas for a weekend and winning a boatload on blackjack and thinking you have figured out how to beat the game.

aggiedaniel06 said:

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Retail has been absolutely crushing it since March and probably outperforming most hedgefunds for the last 3 months.

But here is the thing, when you do this for a living, longevity and consistency are key. When you have to squeeze out 20% returns for decades on a billion dollars, it's not as simple.

It's the same fallacy of going to Vegas for a weekend and winning a boatload on blackjack and thinking you have figured out how to beat the game.

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Here's the thing about retail. There is ignorant gambling retail, and there is smart retail. You can't lump them together. We want to be smart retail like OA and others who have proven over decades that they can successfully and consistently beat an aggregated index or mutual fund.

The beauty of it is that if you get to being smart retail (the very small % of retail), you can destroy the S&P consistently and not have to pay somebody who thinks and probably is smarter than you to only marginally outperform the S&P (maybe) while taking a healthy fee. 99% of people should just put in an index fund or hire somebody to do it for them, but us here want to be the 1%. And it isn't easy. You have to be committed to it, and it takes a ton of effort. You have to have a passion for it, and not just be using it to tickle a gambling itch. I could go on and on about the differences.

Side note on Dave Portney. That dude is not and will never be trading for a living. He is a genius business man who saw the lockdown as an opportunity to immediately pivot to something that is just going to grow his brand and business. He is selling entertainment in the name of stock picking, and the dude is just winning. It doesn't matter if he makes money trading and he knows that. I think it is hilarious that professionals are going so nutso about it. Just absolutely genius move by him that cannot be understated.

1 more, for us ONTX folks... about to get real!

for McInnis and anyone else interested in OSTK... to the moon baby!

AgShaun00 said:

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Breakout. Darvis box?

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It's definitely activated the watch signal. I had to show continuation or if returns under resistance break back above. TSN never did and ended up being a failed breakout. Odds are always worth a trade because as a % they usially follow through.

TSN has a perfect storm of covid cases hit and negative press. It happens.

ONTX looks terrific on almost every indicator.

Y'all are really trying hard to get me to buy a penny stock again aren't you with ONTX? I said I'd never.... now I'm gonna do some chart study on it tomorrow....