I need to lean on you with this question, or any of the other more experienced traders (irish, daniel, ranger, clay, et. al) .....

So today is a great conflict for me in my charts so I want to know how y'all handle.....

SPY, today is a great example of two conflicting signals so I'm trying to figure out what else can be done to gauge the move/play? The numbers are pushing towards a reversal indicator on a 17-18 day trend. It ALSO is a pullback to the mean of the ATR (I'm actually looking at /ES on those ATR's and mean). Pulling back to the mean is a typically a great buying opportunity on a bullish uptrend, but a reversal indicator tells you there could be a change of direction.

So one thing tells me reversal. Another tells me buying opportunity. What else is there to help determine what the correct path is? Would someone play both ways and simply use their stops as the protection that lets you play the "right" move?

ANY and ALL input is much appreciated.

Carlo4 said:

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IrishTxAggie said:

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gougler08 said:

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Carlo4 said:

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S&P futures at 3166 right now. That's at the entry point they are recommending based on the theory. Let's see how it holds up.

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I'm targeting gap fill at 313

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Touched it right away at 3AM. Let's see if she comes back up. Think this was needed. If we can't hold this, another gap fill could be on deck at 308.2

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Went ahead and sold my 50 shares of TVIX for a nice 26 a share gain since yesterday. Back to work full time so out of that.

I'm with you on watching some stocks for a re-entry for long position but waiting to see if these gaps fill down.

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I never trade extended hours but i just sold my tvix I've been accumulating. I don't trust this dip

Feel like these moves are just being made quicker and quicker these days

McInnis 03 said:

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I need to lean on you with this question, or any of the other more experienced traders (irish, daniel, ranger, clay, et. al) .....

So today is a great conflict for me in my charts so I want to know how y'all handle.....

SPY, today is a great example of two conflicting signals so I'm trying to figure out what else can be done to gauge the move/play? The numbers are pushing towards a reversal indicator on a 17-18 day trend. It ALSO is a pullback to the mean of the ATR (I'm actually looking at /ES on those ATR's and mean). Pulling back to the mean is a typically a great buying opportunity on a bullish uptrend, but a reversal indicator tells you there could be a change of direction.

So one thing tells me reversal. Another tells me buying opportunity. What else is there to help determine what the correct path is? Would someone play both ways and simply use their stops as the protection that lets you play the "right" move?

ANY and ALL input is much appreciated.

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Sometimes there's nothing wrong with the sidelines.

gotsand said:

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McInnis 03 said:

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I need to lean on you with this question, or any of the other more experienced traders (irish, daniel, ranger, clay, et. al) .....

So today is a great conflict for me in my charts so I want to know how y'all handle.....

SPY, today is a great example of two conflicting signals so I'm trying to figure out what else can be done to gauge the move/play? The numbers are pushing towards a reversal indicator on a 17-18 day trend. It ALSO is a pullback to the mean of the ATR (I'm actually looking at /ES on those ATR's and mean). Pulling back to the mean is a typically a great buying opportunity on a bullish uptrend, but a reversal indicator tells you there could be a change of direction.

So one thing tells me reversal. Another tells me buying opportunity. What else is there to help determine what the correct path is? Would someone play both ways and simply use their stops as the protection that lets you play the "right" move?

ANY and ALL input is much appreciated.

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Sometimes there's nothing wrong with the sidelines.

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Absolutely. Flat is an acceptable position. But I'm just trying to get more information.

No reason to dump Calls over 30 days out at this point in the game....correct?

I'm wondering that as well with my TSN calls

Understood, sorry I can't point you in a definitive direction. My take is that conflicting indicators are often suggesting that it's not a time to be aggressive in the market. The point of indicators, IMO, is to trade off better than 50-50 odds not necessarily predict the future. When they conflict, I move to scalp trades at most.

DRIP rocking this morning...up to 4.94

Will probably pull some off for a quick 30% gain in 2 days

I'm going to use today to enter some long positions. Not going all in by any means but will throw a little bit in to get going. Once we establish a direction ill add either way probably

Quote:

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If I see 5 to 10 min of red, and the stock seems oversold, I am going to sell. If I see 5 to 10 min of reversal but the stock is not oversold, and flow still seems good, I will hold.

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What do you use to determine oversold/not oversold?

VIX is going a bit buck wild, premiums are going to be jumping.

This looks a bit like 4/21. Big gap down day from being overextended from 8 & 21 EMAs. 21 EMA holding is key. It's around SPY 306-307. Bounce should be a flash to 308 for gap fill and 21 EMA test. Today and tomorrow are massively important now.

Looking closer at waves and channels. This could be a set up for a month or so of sideways macro consolidation SPY 310 - 325 forming a launching pad (or cliff ) from there depending on how reopening America goes among other things...

I'm down across the board....

everything gonna be red except the SPY puts

Every knee shall bow and every tongue shall confess

McInnis 03 said:

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EVA3 said:

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Question for the board:

I'm reading John Carter's book. In the first setup he discusses (trading the opening gap) he says he only trades when the gap is at least 10 YM points or 1 ES point. I know this is a reference to his trading of E-mini S&P futures and mini-sized Dow futures contracts but I don't know how this translates to other stocks and ETFs. For example, how big of a gap should I be looking for if I want to trade this setup on the SPY?

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I do believe 1 ES point is .1 SPY points but in this market there isn't much issue with playing .5 gap fills. It is definitely still qualified with volume but I think you have to bump up what he's described a little. He mentions 50k es contracts as the benchmark from 7-8:20a but I've been extending the numbers a little and it's been ok

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Needless to say, today's volume is off the chart high for pre-market on /ES. No gap fill play today.

We gonna flip to green today or what?

v

Just another perspective here.....JFC has been talking about it for a week. Today and tomorrow are the setups for the Pit Bull low...... here's the detail.

https://www.simplertrading.com/the-pit-bull-lowgood-for-8-of-past-9-months/

The blog entry is a bit dated, but the concept is the same.

And here is a bit more on the Pit Bull Low

https://mrtopstep.com/pit-bulls-thursdayfriday-low-week-expiration/

Really hard to know if today is gonna be really good or really bad.

McInnis 03 said:

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Just another perspective here.....JFC has been talking about it for a week. Today and tomorrow are the setups for the Pit Bull low...... here's the detail.

https://www.simplertrading.com/the-pit-bull-lowgood-for-8-of-past-9-months/

The blog entry is a bit dated, but the concept is the same.

And here is a bit more on the Pit Bull Low

https://mrtopstep.com/pit-bulls-thursdayfriday-low-week-expiration/

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would make alot of sense. Add this to the news article on "retailers" holding options at all time highs. They could be wiped out.

Brian Earl Spilner said:

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Really hard to know if today is gonna be really good or really bad.

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Yeah, 99% chance it's a red day. Almost all the damage has been done pre market

Wait for a direction to jump in, could be choppy for a bit

I sold 60% of my $310P at open. They expire tomorrow. Thoughts on which way this may go? Not sure if I should hold the remaining for potential larger drop in SPY or sell now with a bounce back throughout the day. I am net free at least.

My TICK alerts won't stop, damn thing is married to the -800 to -1000 mark right now. Gotta give this 30 minutes to work itself out. The TRIN is on a downtrend though, so that may be a leading indicator that some are fishing for deals.

Any belief in going down to fill in the 286 gap?

$19MM+ just came through in 1/21/22 TSLA calls ranging from 1500 to 1800 strike

EngrAg14 said:

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Any belief in going down to fill in the 286 gap?

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I believe... and a few points lower

GreasenUSA said:

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Have a stop limit placed for last week's SPY Jul 17 295P at -50%. Currently down 44% on them. Fortunately I've realized enough already today to cover the loss.

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Another example of adhering to a firm stop loss. I had this GTC order in since Monday. Wanted to cut bait several times, but had to remind myself that I can risk the 50% loss, so hold your water. This morning, I was able to change the order premarket and sold for a 20% gain on open.

Vix dropping, TRIN dropping, TICK trying to settle into the the "noise" area.....I think sideways is coming for a bit.

Bought XOM 2021 52.5
Added to TSN 07/17 at $0.30
Sold part of NDX short

What strike price on TSN?

$30,000 Millionaire said:

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Bought XOM 2021 52.5
Added to TSN 07/17 at $0.30
Sold part of NDX short

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why is everyone so bullish on the TSN $75C?