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docaggie
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In reply to IrishTxAggie • 3:36p, 5/19/20
AG
IrishTxAggie said:
McInnis 03 said:
IrishTxAggie said:
Just gave back all of yesterday's gains and then some with that bull**** sell.
We're still just hanging out in Mr. Darvas' box.
I'm aware. But momentum was with the bulls until that damn MRNA hit piece dropped.
That was healthy skepticism and criticism.
This entire jump up in the market has been predicated on the presence of antibodies in 8 (EIGHT) patients.
That's not a study, it's a case series and a tiny one at that.

And it wasn't even published in a peer reviewed article, nor were any of the particulars disclosed regarding the actual data.

It's like Ford declaring a new model of car a success because they sold a dozen of them.

There are going to be a lot of announcements like this in the future, since it seems like at least a couple dozen companies are working on a vaccine, with several of them being heavy hitters (JNJ). Eventually the market will become immune to these phase 1 proclamations.
Class of 1998;
Husband of an Aggie, Class of 1999;
Father to future Class of 2029 and 2031
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
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IrishTxAggie
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In reply to docaggie • 3:37p, 5/19/20
AG
Thought it was 45 patients?
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/moderna-stock-price-positive-vaccine-trial-results-antibodies-coronavirus-covid19-2020-5-1029210803
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12thMan86
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In reply to McInnis 03 • 3:38p, 5/19/20
AG
McInnis 03 said:
12thMan86 said:
McInnis 03 said:
IrishTxAggie said:
Just gave back all of yesterday's gains and then some with that bull**** sell.
We're still just hanging out in Mr. Darvas' box.
McGinness, what that you that did the spx same day expiration trade I was talking about the other day? If this was a MON, WED, or FRI, when the market was at 2965, we could have bought a PUT Debit Spread SPX 2940/2935 for probably next to nothing 20 mins before the close. My guess is the cost would have been around .50, and it would have max win of 4.50. I hate Tues and Thurs trading.
So what you're telling me is you're basically buying things with almost no time left on the off chance you hti the direction of a 2:50 correction? Seems you could play both directions and be right more than not and pay off?

And yes, that was me.
You are correct in that assumption, and he does those sometimes, but usually just picks a side. Sometimes he will put a BF on the upside and downside, and if you look at it on the Analyze tab, it looks like Batman ears. He calls these his Batman trades. The dude just slays them and does 10 at a time when I'm just doing one!

Usually, I try to look at the 2:30 ticks and make a call at 2:30. At 2:30, the market was at 2950ish. You could tell the market was heavy this afternoon.
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12thMan86
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In reply to OverSeas AG • 3:39p, 5/19/20
AG
OverSeas AG said:
12thMan86 said:
McGinness, what that you that did the spx same day expiration trade I was talking about the other day? If this was a MON, WED, or FRI, when the market was at 2965, we could have bought a PUT Debit Spread SPX 2940/2935 for probably next to nothing 20 mins before the close. My guess is the cost would have been around .50, and it would have max win of 4.50. I hate Tues and Thurs trading.
So this is buying at put at one strike and selling the put at the other strike. Then you just let them expire, hoping you were directionally correct and therefore profit?
and you are buying them Out of the money to keep your cost low, or course. Theta eats up the option you sell, and reduces your cost at the same time.
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AggiePeeps06
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In reply to 12thMan86 • 3:42p, 5/19/20
AG
Butterfly spread is buy 1 / sell 2 / buy 1. Correct? Hope so cause that's what I did
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12thMan86
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In reply to AggiePeeps06 • 3:48p, 5/19/20
AG
AggiePeeps06 said:
Butterfly spread is buy 1 / sell 2 / buy 1. Correct? Hope so cause that's what I did
That's it. In a perfect world, it closes at the strikes you sold. They expire worthless as does the other side you bought. Max profit is the difference between strikes you sold vs. one of the strikes you bought. You will notice that with the vol in the market, sometime you have to hold until late on expiration day to really make the nice profit.

Basically is Theta Positive, which is nice.

I will usually sell for 2/3 of max profit, which usually means I can hit a 3x or 4x. I've had several that I got greedy on, trying for the "PIN" (which is freaking awesome when it happens, but PINS are hard, and luck is involved.

I've got a 2650 BF that's 50 wide for July, just in case. Paid 1.05 on Friday, and IF we are in the neighborhood of 2650 in July, it will be a nice hedge. Max profit (will never happen) is 5k.
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leoj
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In reply to AggiePeeps06 • 3:48p, 5/19/20
AG
AggiePeeps06 said:
Butterfly spread is buy 1 / sell 2 / buy 1. Correct? Hope so cause that's what I did


Trial by error, I like it. But yes lol, that is a butterfly spread.
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Agzonfire
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3:53p, 5/19/20
Will LK open above $1??
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docaggie
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In reply to IrishTxAggie • 3:53p, 5/19/20
AG
Every time I heard it, it was 8 patients.
If it was 45, it's still a crazy small amount, and - my biggest gripe - without releasing any data, just a news release.

Keep in mind, Phase 1 is just "will it kill you" kind of research. Doesn't have anything to do with effectiveness to provoke immunity against COVID, persistence of immunity, etc. They threw in there about finding the right kind of antibodies, but it's all theoretical work at this point.
Class of 1998;
Husband of an Aggie, Class of 1999;
Father to future Class of 2029 and 2031
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
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aggiedaniel06
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4:09p, 5/19/20
AG
Y'all have quickly gone from learning about vertical spreads to butterflies! OA must be so proud watching y'alls metamorphosis.
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aggiedaniel06
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In reply to 12thMan86 • 4:10p, 5/19/20
AG
12thMan86 said:
12thMan86 said:
NIIICE flush at the end. Bought some 5/22 SPY 300 puts about 30 mins before close x 4 and made $508. Never hit my stop. So nice to get in at the right spot, for a change!
fyi not that this makes a damn bit of difference. The guys I follow use an indicator called VOODOO lines, and I've seen stocks reverse to the PENNY using these things. The Voodoo support/resistance has always been at 2934, and we broke it on the last 15 min candle.

Probably means we rip up tomorrow, but just thought I'd put that out there.
Got it! Code received.
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12thMan86
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In reply to aggiedaniel06 • 4:14p, 5/19/20
AG
aggiedaniel06 said:
Y'all have quickly gone from learning about vertical spreads to butterflies! OA must be so proud watching y'alls metamorphosis.
we'll blow their mind with Iron Condors next week!!
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Brewmaster
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4:15p, 5/19/20
AG
SNSS big volume day... looks to be ramping back up. Typically it cycles down .40 or .30's, then back up to over $1. Data should be coming end of this month if not early June (this is probably the run up to that).
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aggiedaniel06
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In reply to McInnis 03 • 4:15p, 5/19/20
AG
McInnis 03 said:
McInnis 03 said:
I'm a stubborn old mule, but I can't help it. I just entered a small SPY hedge, 294 long put / 290 short put debit spread for June 19. Cost is $1.40. I figure if it goes to zero it means the rest of my stuff is doing just fine so it's a hedge in the truest sense of the word.
This seems a bit ahead of schedule.
Just wanted to give some unsolicited feedback. For a debit spread with expiry that far out, you'd ideally want to be much more OTM than that. If you're that close to the money, you'd want a shorter time frame.

If not, you will find yourself with the conundrum you're in. Spread at max width at only a fraction of max profit.
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12thMan86
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In reply to aggiedaniel06 • 4:27p, 5/19/20
AG
aggiedaniel06 said:
McInnis 03 said:
McInnis 03 said:
I'm a stubborn old mule, but I can't help it. I just entered a small SPY hedge, 294 long put / 290 short put debit spread for June 19. Cost is $1.40. I figure if it goes to zero it means the rest of my stuff is doing just fine so it's a hedge in the truest sense of the word.
This seems a bit ahead of schedule.
Just wanted to give some unsolicited feedback. For a debit spread with expiry that far out, you'd ideally want to be much more OTM than that. If you're that close to the money, you'd want a shorter time frame.

If not, you will find yourself with the conundrum you're in. Spread at max width at only a fraction of max profit.
great point. That happens to me more than I'd like to admit.
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Ranger222
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In reply to docaggie • 4:35p, 5/19/20
AG
docaggie said:
IrishTxAggie said:
McInnis 03 said:
IrishTxAggie said:
Just gave back all of yesterday's gains and then some with that bull**** sell.
We're still just hanging out in Mr. Darvas' box.
I'm aware. But momentum was with the bulls until that damn MRNA hit piece dropped.
That was healthy skepticism and criticism.
This entire jump up in the market has been predicated on the presence of antibodies in 8 (EIGHT) patients.
That's not a study, it's a case series and a tiny one at that.

And it wasn't even published in a peer reviewed article, nor were any of the particulars disclosed regarding the actual data.

It's like Ford declaring a new model of car a success because they sold a dozen of them.

There are going to be a lot of announcements like this in the future, since it seems like at least a couple dozen companies are working on a vaccine, with several of them being heavy hitters (JNJ). Eventually the market will become immune to these phase 1 proclamations.

Couldn't agree more. When biotech companies usually announce data from Phase I, II or III clinical trials, they also release the actual data slides. Many times a biotech company will claim a "success" in the news release, but when people dig into the data all of a sudden things are seen differently and why a lot of times these companies sell off instead of jumping even with a "positive" result.

It was a complete joke for Moderna to announce anything without any actual data to show for it. Especially in this current time, they should be taken to the woodshed for it. Should have been more evident yesterday and shouldn't have taken a STAT hit piece to do it.

That being said, all these things are just playing the market. Same with the STAT news piece and Gilead a few weeks ago now. Shouldn't be happening.
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Ranger222
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In reply to IrishTxAggie • 4:38p, 5/19/20
AG
IrishTxAggie said:
Thought it was 45 patients?
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/moderna-stock-price-positive-vaccine-trial-results-antibodies-coronavirus-covid19-2020-5-1029210803

From their investor announcement --


Quote:
At this time, neutralizing antibody data are available only for the first four participants in each of the 25 g and 100 g dose level cohorts.

https://investors.modernatx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/moderna-announces-positive-interim-phase-1-data-its-mrna-vaccine/
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cisgenderedAggie
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In reply to docaggie • 4:40p, 5/19/20
docaggie said:
Every time I heard it, it was 8 patients.
If it was 45, it's still a crazy small amount, and - my biggest gripe - without releasing any data, just a news release.

Keep in mind, Phase 1 is just "will it kill you" kind of research. Doesn't have anything to do with effectiveness to provoke immunity against COVID, persistence of immunity, etc. They threw in there about finding the right kind of antibodies, but it's all theoretical work at this point.


It was 45 subjects that developed biding antibodies, but only 8 that they had data showing neutralizing antibodies. My guess is that maybe they tried to make a splash with too early data off the back of the Sorrento euphoria.

Worth following though. If the other 37 subjects don't end up reporting neutralizing antibodies, it could be very bad news and not just for Moderna.
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riley290
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4:45p, 5/19/20
AG
https://biorender.com/covid-vaccine-tracker

Don't get blinded by mrna, there are 4 big boys in phase II ahead of them already. Over the past decade the only thing they've made are press releases, no product and no peer reviewed research. The only two realistic and novel product offerings they were pursuing failed in animal trials.

mrna may hit it one day but it isn't going to be bringing a novel technology to an already flooded market, vaccine making is a huge enterprise and they would have partners out the wazoo if this was it. If their technology is successful the option is to start building a huge production facility or partner with established producers (who are already in said trials with their own product).

Biotech stocks trade on binary events (FDA approvals, trial results, production agreements, etc) so the surest way to trade them is to watch wall street go haywire over some meaningless trial data or claims and then buy puts, you'll hit more often than not. Never short a biotech stock unless you have insider info, but once they breakout they almost always come back quickly and puts can hit, don't take the risk of shorting and it runs away for months.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
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AgShaun00
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4:49p, 5/19/20
AG
i got screwed on a market order for my SPY puts. bid and ask were .74/.75, and got filled at 1.21.
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12thMan86
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In reply to cisgenderedAggie • 4:49p, 5/19/20
AG
cisgenderedAggie said:
docaggie said:
Every time I heard it, it was 8 patients.
If it was 45, it's still a crazy small amount, and - my biggest gripe - without releasing any data, just a news release.

Keep in mind, Phase 1 is just "will it kill you" kind of research. Doesn't have anything to do with effectiveness to provoke immunity against COVID, persistence of immunity, etc. They threw in there about finding the right kind of antibodies, but it's all theoretical work at this point.


It was 45 subjects that developed biding antibodies, but only 8 that they had data showing neutralizing antibodies. My guess is that maybe they tried to make a splash with too early data off the back of the Sorrento euphoria.

Worth following though. If the other 37 subjects don't end up reporting neutralizing antibodies, it could be very bad news and not just for Moderna.
I own the stock at $21 and options. They were talking on CNBC earlier about the fact this looks a little fishy. Came out with good information yesterday (was a stretch I guess), stock pops, then after hours announce they are rolling out 1.25 B in additional shares at 76. Then today the truth comes to light. Not a good look. I have a 5/29 55/60 spread that I was already "counting my money" for full profit when it was 80. Now I'm getting a little nervous.

I still think these guys are for real. I bought before Covid because they are working on Cancer Vaccines too.
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claym711
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In reply to Ranger222 • 4:49p, 5/19/20
AG
Ranger222 said:
docaggie said:
IrishTxAggie said:
McInnis 03 said:
IrishTxAggie said:
Just gave back all of yesterday's gains and then some with that bull**** sell.
We're still just hanging out in Mr. Darvas' box.
I'm aware. But momentum was with the bulls until that damn MRNA hit piece dropped.
That was healthy skepticism and criticism.
This entire jump up in the market has been predicated on the presence of antibodies in 8 (EIGHT) patients.
That's not a study, it's a case series and a tiny one at that.

And it wasn't even published in a peer reviewed article, nor were any of the particulars disclosed regarding the actual data.

It's like Ford declaring a new model of car a success because they sold a dozen of them.

There are going to be a lot of announcements like this in the future, since it seems like at least a couple dozen companies are working on a vaccine, with several of them being heavy hitters (JNJ). Eventually the market will become immune to these phase 1 proclamations.

Couldn't agree more. When biotech companies usually announce data from Phase I, II or III clinical trials, they also release the actual data slides. Many times a biotech company will claim a "success" in the news release, but when people dig into the data all of a sudden things are seen differently and why a lot of times these companies sell off instead of jumping even with a "positive" result.

It was a complete joke for Moderna to announce anything without any actual data to show for it. Especially in this current time, they should be taken to the woodshed for it. Should have been more evident yesterday and shouldn't have taken a STAT hit piece to do it.

That being said, all these things are just playing the market. Same with the STAT news piece and Gilead a few weeks ago now. Shouldn't be happening.
Surely neither the announcement or hit piece have to do with the stock issuance. Surely not.
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12thMan86
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4:55p, 5/19/20
AG
Look what NNDM did today! It's extended and I won't buy it, but damn!!

Just read up on it and they came up with some way to use 3D printing to make chips and electrical components.

Normal volume 1.7 mil shares per day

TODAY 103.6 Million Shares! I'll be watching this one tomorrow.
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leoj
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In reply to 12thMan86 • 5:01p, 5/19/20
AG
Was a $75+ stock at one point
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McInnis 03
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In reply to aggiedaniel06 • 5:03p, 5/19/20
AG
aggiedaniel06 said:
McInnis 03 said:
McInnis 03 said:
I'm a stubborn old mule, but I can't help it. I just entered a small SPY hedge, 294 long put / 290 short put debit spread for June 19. Cost is $1.40. I figure if it goes to zero it means the rest of my stuff is doing just fine so it's a hedge in the truest sense of the word.
This seems a bit ahead of schedule.
Just wanted to give some unsolicited feedback. For a debit spread with expiry that far out, you'd ideally want to be much more OTM than that. If you're that close to the money, you'd want a shorter time frame.

If not, you will find yourself with the conundrum you're in. Spread at max width at only a fraction of max profit.


Thank you, I've always respected your input and I'm learning this on-the-fly. Always better to learn with profit though
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Grown Pear
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5:32p, 5/19/20
AG
I bought 2 MRNA 5/22 70C's on Friday for 3.40 each. With the news and huge jump Monday I sold them at $12.89.... the bid is now at $4.70

As the saying goes, "Sometimes it's better to be lucky than good."
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BB675
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In reply to 12thMan86 • 5:49p, 5/19/20
AG
I got in at $1.90 and sold just north of $3. Really kicking myself but one thing I have learned since I started doing this a few months back is to not be too greedy.
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BB675
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5:58p, 5/19/20
AG
This is likely a dumb question but if you place a trade after hours, do you get it at the price you placed the trade at or the price that it opens this next morning?
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The Pilot
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In reply to BB675 • 6:00p, 5/19/20
AG
If the order gets filled after hours, you get that price.
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leoj
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6:01p, 5/19/20
AG
NET 6/19 $30 and $31 calls have been bought over the past week, still in OI. Can be bought at a much lower cost, not advocating it right now as I'm going to see how the week and this stock shakes out after that close, but something to keep an eye on.

Same with FSLY 6/19 $45 calls as well, though not as much flow.
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UpstateAg
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6:34p, 5/19/20
AG
Futures are green. Somehow. For now.
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reedsterg
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 6:46p, 5/19/20
AG
Was wanting to get into TVIX before the weekend. Which day is more likely my best point of entry?
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IrishTxAggie
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6:48p, 5/19/20
AG
For any of you Elliott Wave theory followers
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jpag
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6:50p, 5/19/20
AG
So I have a question for you guys. Earlier today I sold my calls on DKNG. Then I bought 5/29 DKNG puts (strike price 30) for 2.15. Later in the day I sold 5/22 puts (strike price 29) for .88. Does that strategy have a name? Can I make money with that Strategy?

I've also been doing it with my LVS and DDOG leaps. I bought in the money calls for January and then I sell shorter term out of the money calls.

Am I a complete idiot or is this a conservative way to hedge so I dont lose all the premium that I'm paying?

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gougler08
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In reply to IrishTxAggie • 6:58p, 5/19/20
AG
IrishTxAggie said:
For any of you Elliott Wave theory followers


Well it's positive, so I'll take that
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