Carlo4 said:

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Prognightmare said:

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Good morning fam.

I'm curious, so I'd like to ask y'all a question, since it's the weekend and markets are closed.

What is the single most valuable lesson you've learned in your investing/trading experience? Regardless if you're a newbie or decades long trader/investor.

For me, it was learning to take a loss, when a trade moves against what you thought it would do. This was extremely hard for me at the beginning, but thankfully, it's almost automatic now and has saved me a lot money by not going down with the ship.

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Forgive the length... great topic and hoping this helps someone. Definitely new to this but always followed what's been going on since 2008.

My lessons.

1. Educate yourself - no matter the experience level - keep learning. Videos, books, discussions, news, learn by doing. Research where your money is going.

2. Don't be afraid to fail. No ragrets. Not one letter. Life is about learning lessons, and trading falls there for sure. Learn from every trade

3. Emotions and feelings kill you here. It's not personal... it's strictly business.... this is a numbers game. Forget the last loss and focus on the next win. Personally, I think we see a 40% to 70% drop coming in the markets over time. However, I would be broke betting on that to happen. I lost $2,500 before I quit trading on ideas and not what the market tells me... thankfully, I learned on profits.

This also works on falling in love with a stock. My dad sold Apple the other day for $315 or so with an entry average around $110. He thinks it's the best company ever and would do no wrong nor lose money. After selling it this week, I've never seen him happier. He became obsessed with watching it and moved on now to enjoy his profits.

4. Let the market signal when to trade. Do not trade or be in the market just because. Timing is everything. Trend lines, MACD, resistance, blah blah etc.

5. Set limits. Be ok with taking profits and limiting losses, especially in times of volatility.

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Lot of good advice there. I sold my aapl on Thursday at 314. Bought at 90. I'll re enter at 250 or less.

I think we are about to start trending down for a while, especially if reopening doesn't go well, Trump and China start ****, foreclosure processes just started, etc. I see more risk to the upside than down side.

12thMan86 said:

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Ragoo said:

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I think I am only going to buy verticals from here on out. Profit is capped but risk is significantly reduced.

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I'll tell you what are fun are SPX verticals that expire the same day. They are lottos but work regularly in this violent market. On Friday I bought the 2850-2855 call vertical for .65 late in the day. It maxed out at 4.65. I've done these for the last month. Hit about 40%. When you can hit 40 percent and make anywhere from 5:1 to 9:1, it works. You have to be right on your direction of course. Theta decay works in your favor big time.

I agree I have started buying more verticals. The key is how far out you buy them.

Good luck!

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my thought is that your break even is much lower as well. You only have to be barely right. Buying the call you have to be right and by a good bit to hit the break even point.

12thMan86 said:

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Ragoo said:

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I think I am only going to buy verticals from here on out. Profit is capped but risk is significantly reduced.

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I'll tell you what are fun are SPX verticals that expire the same day. They are lottos but work regularly in this violent market. On Friday I bought the 2850-2855 call vertical for .65 late in the day. It maxed out at 4.65. I've done these for the last month. Hit about 40%. When you can hit 40 percent and make anywhere from 5:1 to 9:1, it works. You have to be right on your direction of course. Theta decay works in your favor big time.

I agree I have started buying more verticals. The key is how far out you buy them.

Good luck!

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I. Love. This.

SIAP - article on CLOs

https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/leveraged-loan-news/those-700b-in-us-clos-who-holds-them-what-risk-they-pose

McInnis 03 said:

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12thMan86 said:

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Ragoo said:

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I think I am only going to buy verticals from here on out. Profit is capped but risk is significantly reduced.

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I'll tell you what are fun are SPX verticals that expire the same day. They are lottos but work regularly in this violent market. On Friday I bought the 2850-2855 call vertical for .65 late in the day. It maxed out at 4.65. I've done these for the last month. Hit about 40%. When you can hit 40 percent and make anywhere from 5:1 to 9:1, it works. You have to be right on your direction of course. Theta decay works in your favor big time.

I agree I have started buying more verticals. The key is how far out you buy them.

Good luck!

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I. Love. This.

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Looking now and seeing that the call and put side are pretty close in price. Apart from just further limiting return, what would be the harm in buying both directions in equal amounts?

Nevermind, looking at Fidelity P/L and see that it's likely a loosing bet any way it plays out.

So I came across this account. Should be of interest to anyone who plays in the bio space.

A question on spreads. Do they have to be bought together as a vertical or can they be constructed with individually purchased calls? I have some net free calls and I'm thinking that it would be better to sell the higher call against them then to just hope it expires for a jackpot.

Most notably, this is related to SRNE, but I'm interested in the utility of this for future use too. I have every expectation that there will be sizable volatility between now and December, assuming spikes and falls around publication, Phase 1 initiation, and results. Selling the higher call, then buying it back with plans to sell again later seems like a decent way to extract more cash out of the play, but this seems to be restricted in my Fidelity account. I'm assuming it's viewing this as an attempt to sell a naked call, which is not something I'm really interested in doing. I suppose I'm not following if there is a different risk that I'm not seeing, possibly related to the mechanics of how the assignments would be handled.

You can definitely turn a single leg call/put into a vertical spread at some point down the line in order to hedge it further. Doesn't have to be created initially at the same time. There are some people I follow that I see do it regularly, but in all honesty spreads aren't something I ever really use to I'll leave discussion on the strategy and real world factors to consider to someone else.

Speaking of CLOs/Big Short moments, wife and I had to go to one of the big malls in DFW this weekend to look for a few things and just wanted to see what's going on there.

Between security and mall walkers and chick fil a visitors, that's really all me and my wife saw. 10% of the stores were open. No one was even going in them. Normally, this place would be packed all day long.

Wife and I were incredibly shocked by it all. Walmart is ok but the mall isn't. None of it makes sense but here we are nearly two months into this. I simply can't imagine the damage done here.

which one? I drove by Northpark the other day and it was dead.

So, this seems like it would be incredibly useful

That's a really interesting article. Now we just need a list of CLOs and a way to break down what debt is inside them.

AggiePeeps06 said:

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That's a really interesting article. Now we just need a list of CLOs and a way to break down what debt is inside them.

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I believe we also need to go interview strippers in Miami

What malls were you guys seeing packed before this?

The mega-mall was getting decimated long before COVID, and it certainly doesn't help that many of them are leaning on movie theaters as part of their anchor.

Proposition Joe said:

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What malls were you guys seeing packed before this?

The mega-mall was getting decimated long before COVID, and it certainly doesn't help that many of them are leaning on movie theaters as part of their anchor.

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Our local mall sucks. We have a theatre, Dillard's, Xtreme Jump and crappy food. More boarded up stores than open one's, they even lost Kay Jewelers. This was all pre-Covid.

Prognightmare said:

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Proposition Joe said:

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What malls were you guys seeing packed before this?

The mega-mall was getting decimated long before COVID, and it certainly doesn't help that many of them are leaning on movie theaters as part of their anchor.

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Our local mall sucks. We have a theatre, Dillard's, Xtreme Jump and crappy food. More boarded up stores than open one's, they even lost Kay Jewelers. This was all pre-Covid.

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Yup. We had one that expanded by 30% in the mid-90's and was a pretty lively place... It's still has 100% occupancy, but you can very much see the decline in the quality of the tenants. A lot more dollar store type stores, a "glow putt putt" that looked pretty sketchy, etc... The malls were previously packed as a teen hangout AND a shopping destination for adults, but the adults have moved online, so all it's left are the teens that don't really buy anything they are just there to socialize.

AggiePeeps06 said:

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That's a really interesting article. Now we just need a list of CLOs and a way to break down what debt is inside them.

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That might be difficult, most CLOs are issued out of the Cayman islands.

Edit- also, I think I read that CLOs are loans for businesses. CMOs are for mortgages. Are those less concerning right now than business loans?

Indoor antiquated malls are absolutely wrecked. Zombie properties many with a higher and better use. Mix use, last mile industrial come to mind. Corona will be the nail in the coffin of so many mall retailers and ultimately the malls they occupy. Only the best of the best will survive. Long AMZN.

Be sure to ask how many Airbnb's they have

$30,000 Millionaire said:

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which one? I drove by Northpark the other day and it was dead.

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That's the one. I know it will survive, but holy cow it was just an absolute shock to see it so empty.

Carlo4 said:

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Be sure to ask how many Airbnb's they have

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I'll have quite a few questions for them. Full interrogation on my end

If northpark is dead, everything else must be really suffering. Then again, people in Arlington and places like that are different.

Every knee shall bow and every tongue shall confess

My AC is out in the house and two different companies told me it needs to be replaced after my house or something close to my house was struck by lightning. Have a feeling insurance is going to try and stick it to me. With that being said, what is the play tomorrow? Needs to be a quick profit.

Got a Powell pump on the futures.

Every knee shall bow and every tongue shall confess

Question for the experienced traders; how many positions are you in at any given time? Im curious if people are in and out of only a few or holding 10-20+. Thanks!

Depends. Sometimes 10-15. Currently only have 2. I'm actively trading right now and not just playing options flow. I'll put on 3-5 day trades/day of the setups present themselves.