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McInnis 03
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3:18p, 5/12/20
AG
Saw $700K+ sweep on 294p for spy for tomorrow. I guess they're banking on an up day AND getting put so their cost is below what they're put and and can turn it again instantly?
***If this post is on Business and Investing, take it with a grain of salt. I am wrong way more than I am right (but I am less wrong than I used to be) and if you follow me you will be too.***

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Carlo4
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3:19p, 5/12/20
AG
TVIX jumping from $135 to $180 today. Whoa
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oldarmy1
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3:28p, 5/12/20
AG
I had to be away today but laid out the blueprint on macro markets and at least one stock, SDC.

The banks failed almost immediately after opening while other stocks tried to break out, like TWTR, and ultimately failed. Obviously the strongest likelihood of upward move would be a Darvas Box stock, BJ, but even it couldn't sustain. HOWEVER - The golden key to wealth has been signaled and BJ on any pullback below $28 is free money.

Back to macro markets. What did I say premarket? A) Watch banks to give back their early gains. They did B) Use that indicator to hedge and lighten exposure. Did you act or hope?

I shorted half the TWTR calls against the $30 calls as it pushed $30. My risk was the premium paid and the gain was using what the banks told us to capitalize and make $0.80 per share, thus taking my call premium down below market price. Cover the TWTR and now wait for what I still think is inevitable.

SDC - What did I outline? To use the clear strength in run up to buy a cheap $8 protective Put (Low was $0.15 - which I opted for a $9 Put as my alerts went off SDC had broken $10). Then sell a covered call (I selected the June 12th filled at $1.78, although it reached $1.90). I would never hold a stock that had risen that rapidly naked into earnings.

I don't see todfay as any kind of start to a retest, but it could be. Did you nab the June 19 $260 or $270 Puts when pressing the upper boundary? I think we will see this develop into the channel continuation (chart coming) that is unfolding which means shy of $280 being the lows on SPY. They always want to make consolidation pullbacks look dramatic. Will have to wait and see which model confirms.


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Ranger222
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3:29p, 5/12/20
AG
something to watch for......

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McInnis 03
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In reply to oldarmy1 • 3:34p, 5/12/20
AG
oldarmy1 said:
I had to be away today but laid out the blueprint on macro markets and at least one stock, SDC.

The banks failed almost immediately after opening while other stocks tried to break out, like TWTR, and ultimately failed. Obviously the strongest likelihood of upward move would be a Darvas Box stock, BJ, but even it couldn't sustain. HOWEVER - The golden key to wealth has been signaled and BJ on any pullback below $28 is free money.

Back to macro markets. What did I say premarket? A) Watch banks to give back their early gains. They did B) Use that indicator to hedge and lighten exposure. Did you act or hope?

I shorted half the TWTR calls against the $30 calls as it pushed $30. My risk was the premium paid and the gain was using what the banks told us to capitalize and make $0.80 per share, thus taking my call premium down below market price. Cover the TWTR and now wait for what I still think is inevitable.

SDC - What did I outline? To use the clear strength in run up to buy a cheap $8 protective Put (Low was $0.15 - which I opted for a $9 Put as my alerts went off SDC had broken $10). Then sell a covered call (I selected the June 12th filled at $1.78, although it reached $1.90). I would never hold a stock that had risen that rapidly naked into earnings.

I don't see todfay as any kind of start to a retest, but it could be. Did you nab the June 19 $260 or $270 Puts when pressing the upper boundary? I think we will see this develop into the channel continuation (chart coming) that is unfolding which means shy of $280 being the lows on SPY. They always want to make consolidation pullbacks look dramatic. Will have to wait and see which model confirms.
Can I ask why the indicator was banks? What led you to know that was the tell?
***If this post is on Business and Investing, take it with a grain of salt. I am wrong way more than I am right (but I am less wrong than I used to be) and if you follow me you will be too.***

B&I Key:
ETH - Extended Trading Hours --- RTH - Regular Trading Hours
ORH - Opening Range (1st 30min) High --- ORL - Opening Range Low
R1, R2, R3 - Resistance 1, 2, or 3 --- S1, S2, S3 - Support 1, 2 or 3
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leoj
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3:41p, 5/12/20
AG
Just to echo oa and also point out why I like HP, he posted as well about banks being in bearish pennants and jpm lost it and triggered this morning.
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oldarmy1
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In reply to McInnis 03 • 3:45p, 5/12/20
AG
Mainly years of experience - seriously. The bear flag they had formed could be broken to the upside, and likely would have if markets powered to 3000. When I saw them green this morning as strong as they were showing, I immediately recognized that pattern I'd seen play out a hundred times. Strong start on financials leading to enthusiasm that they would breakout and void the flag pattern, but if they slid then almost every time historically it was a leading indicator of macro selling.

Sometimes its not technical but repeat patterns that occasionally show themselves. That was this mornings and solely based on markets being at key breakout levels combined with a rare contrarian financial sector showing bear patterns.
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McInnis 03
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In reply to oldarmy1 • 3:47p, 5/12/20
AG
oldarmy1 said:
Mainly years of experience - seriously. The bear flag they had formed could be broken to the upside, and likely would have if markets powered to 3000. When I saw them green this morning as strong as they were showing, I immediately recognized that pattern I'd seen play out a hundred times. Strong start on financials leading to enthusiasm that they would breakout and void the flag pattern, but if they slid then almost every time historically it was a leading indicator of macro selling.

Sometimes its not technical but repeat patterns that occasionally show themselves. That was this mornings and solely based on markets being at key breakout levels combined with a rare contrarian financial sector showing bear patterns.
Thank you. THIS is why I'm here.
***If this post is on Business and Investing, take it with a grain of salt. I am wrong way more than I am right (but I am less wrong than I used to be) and if you follow me you will be too.***

B&I Key:
ETH - Extended Trading Hours --- RTH - Regular Trading Hours
ORH - Opening Range (1st 30min) High --- ORL - Opening Range Low
R1, R2, R3 - Resistance 1, 2, or 3 --- S1, S2, S3 - Support 1, 2 or 3
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leoj
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In reply to oldarmy1 • 3:47p, 5/12/20
AG
Just to show everyone what OA is talking about

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oldarmy1
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In reply to Spaceship • 3:49p, 5/12/20
AG
Spaceship said:
oldarmy1 said:
Watch financials for leading indicator on when the dance ends and grabs chair quick. They have a bear flag formed but are bouncing early after hitting lower range of formation yesterday.

I always keep an eye on days like today when they pop premarket and if they fade versus follow through. If they fade then watch lows and if taken out I'd be taking profits or exiting regardless most by side, add to hedges out to June 19 and wait to see.

Again if they push upward it's a great indicator that relative market strength is solid.


Looks like financials are heading down right now. Good post, thank you and let's keep an eye on it.
This is what the previous poster referenced. Knowing I would be out I gave a quick macro read.
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$30,000 Millionaire
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In reply to oldarmy1 • 4:07p, 5/12/20
AG
I really appreciate your perspective. Learning a lot every day.
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ProgN
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In reply to oldarmy1 • 4:08p, 5/12/20
Did you catch any today?
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Exsurge Domine
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4:10p, 5/12/20
Chart gurus check out Ingersoll Rand, going to short sell some of these. Has a lot of room to run below, massive inverted baby hammer candle on the daily. Next line of support is the 50 day moving average a full 2 points (7%) lower.

[url=https://ibb.co/QcKt3Fz][/url]
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McInnis 03
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In reply to Exsurge Domine • 4:17p, 5/12/20
AG
Exsurge Domine said:
Chart gurus check out Ingersoll Rand, going to short sell some of these. Has a lot of room to run below, massive inverted baby hammer candle on the daily. Next line of support is the 50 day moving average a full 2 points (7%) lower.

[url=https://ibb.co/QcKt3Fz][/url]
Why not limit your losses and sell a call credit spread?
***If this post is on Business and Investing, take it with a grain of salt. I am wrong way more than I am right (but I am less wrong than I used to be) and if you follow me you will be too.***

B&I Key:
ETH - Extended Trading Hours --- RTH - Regular Trading Hours
ORH - Opening Range (1st 30min) High --- ORL - Opening Range Low
R1, R2, R3 - Resistance 1, 2, or 3 --- S1, S2, S3 - Support 1, 2 or 3
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Exsurge Domine
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In reply to McInnis 03 • 4:18p, 5/12/20
McInnis 03 said:
Exsurge Domine said:
Chart gurus check out Ingersoll Rand, going to short sell some of these. Has a lot of room to run below, massive inverted baby hammer candle on the daily. Next line of support is the 50 day moving average a full 2 points (7%) lower.

[url=https://ibb.co/QcKt3Fz][/url]
Why not limit your losses and sell a call credit spread?


My main reason behind not doing the call credit spread is......I have no idea what that is or how to do it
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jh0400
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In reply to Exsurge Domine • 4:26p, 5/12/20
AG
Sell a call and buy a higher strike call.
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ProgN
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4:42p, 5/12/20
Quote:
Twitter employees can work from home as long as they wish
4:02 pm ET May 12, 2020 (MarketWatch)


Twitter Inc.'s (TWTR) nearly 5,000 employees may work from home as long as they wish as the San Francisco-based company re-engineers operations in the age of COVID-19. Twitter Chief Executive Jack Dorsey told employees in a note Tuesday that most of them would be allowed to continue to work from home even after the global health crisis passes. Those who return to the office will not be allowed to until at least September, and all travel will be severely cut back, Dorsey added. Earlier this month, Facebook Inc. (FB) CEO Mark Zuckerberg said the company will allow most of its employees to continue working from home through the end of 2020. Alphabet Inc.'s (GOOGL)(GOOGL) has a similar policy.
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Grown Pear
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In reply to McInnis 03 • 4:54p, 5/12/20
AG
McInnis 03 said:

So glad I took a little gamble on these calls. Aaaand its down almost 5.4% after hours..... smh
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jsap
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In reply to Grown Pear • 5:05p, 5/12/20
Grown Pear said:
McInnis 03 said:

So glad I took a little gamble on these calls. Aaaand its down almost 5.4% after hours..... smh
Why is it down if it beats the estimate?
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Grown Pear
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In reply to jsap • 5:07p, 5/12/20
AG
jsap said:
Grown Pear said:
McInnis 03 said:

So glad I took a little gamble on these calls. Aaaand its down almost 5.4% after hours..... smh
Why is it down if it beats the estimate?
Psshh it's the world we live in now man! Up is down and down is up
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McInnis 03
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In reply to Grown Pear • 5:17p, 5/12/20
AG
Grown Pear said:
McInnis 03 said:

So glad I took a little gamble on these calls. Aaaand its down almost 5.4% after hours..... smh


I'm sinking with you.

I think they raised money by issuing a bond and market didn't like that
***If this post is on Business and Investing, take it with a grain of salt. I am wrong way more than I am right (but I am less wrong than I used to be) and if you follow me you will be too.***

B&I Key:
ETH - Extended Trading Hours --- RTH - Regular Trading Hours
ORH - Opening Range (1st 30min) High --- ORL - Opening Range Low
R1, R2, R3 - Resistance 1, 2, or 3 --- S1, S2, S3 - Support 1, 2 or 3
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aggiedaniel06
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In reply to leoj • 5:28p, 5/12/20
AG
leoj said:
Just to show everyone what OA is talking about

I'm pretty sure that dude has drawn the bottom trendline on the wedge wrong. JPM had already broken below the wedge last week.
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Rice and Fries
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In reply to Exsurge Domine • 5:31p, 5/12/20
Exsurge Domine said:
McInnis 03 said:
Exsurge Domine said:
Chart gurus check out Ingersoll Rand, going to short sell some of these. Has a lot of room to run below, massive inverted baby hammer candle on the daily. Next line of support is the 50 day moving average a full 2 points (7%) lower.

[url=https://ibb.co/QcKt3Fz][/url]
Why not limit your losses and sell a call credit spread?


My main reason behind not doing the call credit spread is......I have no idea what that is or how to do it
https://www.optionsplaybook.com/
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McInnis 03
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In reply to Exsurge Domine • 5:34p, 5/12/20
AG
Exsurge Domine said:
McInnis 03 said:
Exsurge Domine said:
Chart gurus check out Ingersoll Rand, going to short sell some of these. Has a lot of room to run below, massive inverted baby hammer candle on the daily. Next line of support is the 50 day moving average a full 2 points (7%) lower.

[url=https://ibb.co/QcKt3Fz][/url]
Why not limit your losses and sell a call credit spread?


My main reason behind not doing the call credit spread is......I have no idea what that is or how to do it


Copy paste for now, will try to give real number examples later:

Example of a Bear Call Spread
Let's assume that a stock is trading at $30. An options trader can use a bear call spread by purchasing one call option contract with a strike price of $35 and a cost/premium of $50 ($0.50 * 100 shares/contract) and selling one call option contract with a strike price of $30 for $2.50 or $250 ($2.50 * 100 shares/contract). In this case, the investor will earn a credit of $200 to set up this strategy ($250 - $50). If the price of the underlying asset closes below $30 upon expiration, then the investor will realize a total profit of $200 (($250 - $50) - ($35 - $30 * 100 shares/contract)).
***If this post is on Business and Investing, take it with a grain of salt. I am wrong way more than I am right (but I am less wrong than I used to be) and if you follow me you will be too.***

B&I Key:
ETH - Extended Trading Hours --- RTH - Regular Trading Hours
ORH - Opening Range (1st 30min) High --- ORL - Opening Range Low
R1, R2, R3 - Resistance 1, 2, or 3 --- S1, S2, S3 - Support 1, 2 or 3
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leoj
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In reply to aggiedaniel06 • 5:57p, 5/12/20
AG
The poster did, yes, but it gets the point across. I don't want to clutter the thread, check HP's twitter, he has other posts showing his actual charts after that exchange.
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aggiedaniel06
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6:19p, 5/12/20
AG
I was just pointing it out because if one was making a play based on the pennant breakdown TA, they should have entered the puts last week.

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oldarmy1
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In reply to ProgN • 6:24p, 5/12/20
AG
Actually, I was out looking at a new property. Bid is in. If I get it I'll post pics - don't want to jinx.
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ProgN
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In reply to oldarmy1 • 6:27p, 5/12/20
oldarmy1 said:
Actually, I was out looking at a new property. Bid is in. If I get it I'll post pics - don't want to jinx.
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ProgN
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6:29p, 5/12/20
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/12/jc-penney-in-talks-for-450-million-loan-as-it-eyes-friday-bankruptcy-filing.html

Quote:
J.C. Penney is in talks with key lenders to secure $450 million in financing for a possible bankruptcy filing that would require the troubled retailer to hit certain goals to receive the second half of the loan, people familiar with the situation tell CNBC.

The funds, known as a "debtor in possession" loan, would be smaller than the $1 billion in DIP the retailer was initially seeking, though that would have included existing debt being rolled over.

The company is planning to file for bankruptcy as soon as Friday, though that timing could still be delayed, one of the people said. It is working on a plan that would contemplate closing 180 to 200 stores while in bankruptcy. The retailer had 846 department stores as of February and employed roughly 90,000 full-time and part-time employees. The people cautioned that plans are not yet finalized, and nothing is certain


"nothing is certain" my ass. Who posted earlier that someone bought like 20M shares?
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khaos288
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In reply to oldarmy1 • 6:41p, 5/12/20
AG
oldarmy1 said:
Actually, I was out looking at a new property. Bid is in. If I get it I'll post pics - don't want to jinx.


Texags stock retreat
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spud1910
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In reply to oldarmy1 • 7:08p, 5/12/20
AG
oldarmy1 said:
Actually, I was out looking at a new property. Bid is in. If I get it I'll post pics - don't want to jinx.
Is the pond (lake), well stocked?
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leoj
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In reply to aggiedaniel06 • 7:33p, 5/12/20
AG
aggiedaniel06 said:
I was just pointing it out because if one was making a play based on the pennant breakdown TA, they should have entered the puts last week.



No I'm with you, I noticed it when I saw it but HP hadn't publicly posted his charts yet. I posted that one anyway because it just gives the main idea of what oa was seeing. All good.
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leoj
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7:40p, 5/12/20
AG
Will be interested to see if RUBI is seeing the same on their end.

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Swollen Thumb
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In reply to leoj • 8:52p, 5/12/20
AG
Added more RUBI today at 5.99 right at close on a limit order.
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Brewmaster
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In reply to khaos288 • 8:54p, 5/12/20
AG
khaos288 said:
oldarmy1 said:
Actually, I was out looking at a new property. Bid is in. If I get it I'll post pics - don't want to jinx.


Texags stocker retreat
FIFY
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