To add to the growing sentiment of a pull back, let's use LUV for example.

They will likely recover from this but they're still only at about half off of their 52 week highs while having practically no business at all currently. We'll assume this price is based on the future though, so let's say this represents next years value.

Now then let's say next year only 60% of all travelers needs/wants to return to flying. That would mean in actuality their stock is only at about a 10% discount currently. I don't think thats really worth it. At least not with a global recession on the horizon.

Now is it safe to assume LUV represents the value of all stocks? Obviously not. But it does show that there is in fact some inflation in the market. I'm sure some similar things could be said for all of travel stocks in particular (DIS, WYNN, CCL, etc.).

Prognightmare said:

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Honestly, to be a successful trader, your next day due diligence starts when the market closes. You go through your charts on a list of stocks that you're interested in and make a list of stocks that you would buy at "X" price because it looks like it will go towards "Y" in an up market or down market. This list and homework you've put in will become your guide for the next day.

Then you look at outside factors like earnings, or lack there of, on market moving stocks because this will drive the futures through the night. You look at economic reports that will come out premarket. You look at geo-political events that might influence the market. You anticipate positive and negative reactions. When the market opens, up or down, you have your game plan written down or alerts already set. The more work you put in after hours on your charts and research the better you'll become at trading. JMO

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It sounds like I'm failing my day trading class. If I start trading on margin and do all of the things mentioned can I get extra credit?!

Just trying to help out bruh.

ETA:

It gets A LOT easier with repetition. I can all but guarantee, because I can't speak for them, that OA, Ranger, Irish, Ragoo, and Gougler can look at a chart of a stock they've been following and identify entry/exit points and trading triggers/ranges in all of 5 seconds.

AggieKeith15 said:

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To add to the growing sentiment of a pull back, let's use LUV for example.

They will likely recover from this but they're still only at about half off of their 52 week highs while having practically no business at all currently. We'll assume this price is based on the future though, so let's say this represents next years value.

Now then let's say next year only 60% of all travelers needs/wants to return to flying. That would mean in actuality their stock is only at about a 10% discount currently. I don't think thats really worth it. At least not with a global recession on the horizon.

Now is it safe to assume LUV represents the value of all stocks? Obviously not. But it does show that there is in fact some inflation in the market. I'm sure some similar things could be said for all of travel stocks in particular (DIS, WYNN, CCL, etc.).

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How'd they cut expenses by 40%?

Much appreciated! I will definitely be taking the things you mentioned into consideration moving forward. Was only trying to joke on my own lack of doing is all. I have a lot of room for improvement apparently! Lol

Thanks again.

gig em 02 said:

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texagbeliever said:

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I'm kind of on the other side. There was probably a belief that our market couldn't fall as fast as it did (outside of a war). I think people now underestimate how fast it can recover. I am not an optimist, i'm typically called a pessimist though i always said realist by effort.

When things are bad and bleak you put your head down and fight. You gain a foot an inch today maybe lose some ground tomorrow. But you fight because that is all you can do. There is no end in sight and in the back of your mind you know you could easily fall back fast. But then things start breaking in your favor. You have that one day in which you gain 10 yards. You have those big gains that make you realize there is no new normal but things are going to get back to normal.

Items i am hopeful of that will shape this:

• Return of people to churches. People need their spiritual nourishment
• Return of nationally televised sporting events
• Return of school
• First football game with a crowd
• Small business taxation reform
• Regulation reform
• Disneyland opening back up
• youth sports returning

Once more and more everyday things start becoming everyday again you will feel like you never missed a beat. Now i'm not expecting to reach the highs pre covid in 2020. But i'm optimistic of a base around 25,5 or 26 for DJIA.

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20%+ unemployment which may be temporary if the Fed can keep things afloat until we open up
Oil and gas decimated glut will take awhile to clear but once demand returns might get back to something liveable
Travel industry decimated
Hotel industry decimated
Small businesses decimated can stimulus and subsidies keep these from going under until we open up?
No sports, no movies, no concerts digital entertainment and social media
8+ million people missing mortgage payments for 3-6 months
Millions of missed rent payments
Millions of missed car payments
Trillions of dollars printed out of nowhere more dollars in the market could continue driving up stock prices, even if it is completely artificially inflated

What we have is an economic tourniquet to get us through November. You know what happens when you keep a tourniquet on for 9 months? You're gonna have a bad time. we are beginning to open up now. If we find more were infected already and the fatalities don't jump then we may get back to "normal"

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I'm still not sold that we don't get back to 2500 once reality sets in, but I can easily see the case for this to continue recovering.

AggieKeith15 said:

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Much appreciated! I will definitely be taking the things you mentioned into consideration moving forward. Was only trying to joke on my own lack of doing is all. I have a lot of room from improvement apparently! Lol

Thanks again.

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No problem, try watching a youtube video, or 2, every night on an aspect of technical analysis. Like VWAP, Stochastic, MACD, divergence, Bollinger bands, etc. there's a plethora of indicators and they all help form the picture. A lot will make more sense and just all click together one day.

Good luck

Technically you're right, there are a lot of fixed expenses for airlines. But we'll say they shrink their staff, gas remains low, and they raise their ticket prices to offset the remaing expenses. Even then the current prices are only a few percentage points off from what should be their predicted value. That's definitely not something I would want to invest in right now. Way too risky.

AggieKeith15 said:

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Technically you're right, there are a lot of fixed expenses for airlines. But we'll say they shrink their staff, gas remains low, and they raise their ticket prices to offset the remaing expenses. Even then the current prices are only a few percentage points off from what should be their predicted value. That's definitely not something I would want to invest in right now. Way too risky.

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I would think Luv also has a long term value. Without the bloated unions of American and Delta they are in an easier position to adjust labor costs with the market. You aren't betting on Luv's ability to make money today so much of Luv's ability to capture a sizable amount of market share once the other giants face recoil.

How i view it as a guy with Energy background (power), basically when you are buying an airline stock implied in the value is the probability that a competitor won't survive and thus the market share for the survivors will increase as competition decreases. Now if all of them survive then all the stocks are potentially overvalued. If one fails then the others all would see a bump up. Similar thing can be said for retail clothing.

texagbeliever said:

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AggieKeith15 said:

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Technically you're right, there are a lot of fixed expenses for airlines. But we'll say they shrink their staff, gas remains low, and they raise their ticket prices to offset the remaing expenses. Even then the current prices are only a few percentage points off from what should be their predicted value. That's definitely not something I would want to invest in right now. Way too risky.

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I would think Luv also has a long term value. Without the bloated unions of American and Delta they are in an easier position to adjust labor costs with the market. You aren't betting on Luv's ability to make money today so much of Luv's ability to capture a sizable amount of market share once the other giants face recoil.

How i view it as a guy with Energy background (power), basically when you are buying an airline stock implied in the value is the probability that a competitor won't survive and thus the market share for the survivors will increase as competition decreases. Now if all of them survive then all the stocks are potentially overvalued. If one fails then the others all would see a bump up. Similar thing can be said for retail clothing.

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I don't and never have traded airline stocks so that's my disclaimer.

I heard on the radio that a carrier, I can't remember which one because I don't care, is going to downsize their staff beginning with union members. The remaining staff will have hours cut and will have to take 20 unpaid days off for the rest of the year. This is to cut their costs.

I'm not sure if this helps anyone, just passing on what I heard on the radio a couple of days ago.

Prognightmare said:

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texagbeliever said:

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AggieKeith15 said:

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Technically you're right, there are a lot of fixed expenses for airlines. But we'll say they shrink their staff, gas remains low, and they raise their ticket prices to offset the remaing expenses. Even then the current prices are only a few percentage points off from what should be their predicted value. That's definitely not something I would want to invest in right now. Way too risky.

---

I would think Luv also has a long term value. Without the bloated unions of American and Delta they are in an easier position to adjust labor costs with the market. You aren't betting on Luv's ability to make money today so much of Luv's ability to capture a sizable amount of market share once the other giants face recoil.

How i view it as a guy with Energy background (power), basically when you are buying an airline stock implied in the value is the probability that a competitor won't survive and thus the market share for the survivors will increase as competition decreases. Now if all of them survive then all the stocks are potentially overvalued. If one fails then the others all would see a bump up. Similar thing can be said for retail clothing.

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I don't and never have traded airline stocks so that's my disclaimer.

I heard on the radio that a carrier, I can't remember which one because I don't care, is going to downsize their staff beginning with union members. The remaining staff will have hours cut and will have to take 20 unpaid days off for the rest of the year. This is to cut their costs.

I'm not sure if this helps anyone, just passing on what I heard on the radio a couple of days ago.

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Probably United. They were getting sued by union members and then furloughing employees.

Prognightmare said:

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Just trying to help out bruh.

ETA:

It gets A LOT easier with repetition. I can all but guarantee, because I can't speak for them, that OA, Ranger, Irish, Ragoo, and Gougler can look at a chart of a stock they've been following and identify entry/exit points and trading triggers/ranges in all of 5 seconds.

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You sir, give me too much credit to lump in with the others

And also, I grabbed some DAL down here around $22...will hold long and sell covered calls on rips until I'm called out

Is playing a gap fill an effective strategy?

If it comes back below that lower opening value, yes. Might not do that for a while though, could consolidate and head higher.

Also, funny you posted him because this is what I was referring to on WORK. He posts really simple setups/graphics that I really like.

NEE, Nextera Energy: April 9, May 8 goal posts on the 3 month chart?

jeromePOWell said:

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NEE, Nextera Energy: April 9, May 8 goal posts on the 3 month chart?

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You look to be on to something. I don't know how to post a picture but i'd suggest looking at the NEE vs SPX vs DJIA 65 minute timeframe from 3/8-5/8.

NEE moves in line with the major indexes from 3/8-4/6. A small gap forms and then NEE follows the SPX/DJIA change up until 4/24. At this point the indexes start trending up but NEE stays flat to down. I think at some point NEE has to bounce back to index average because of its security in returns and value.

They have strong financials and are probably a shark in this environment looking to grow.

How much business flight is it going to take to turn California into a net less state federally? Surely tech alone can't keep them afloat with such a huge population. What else do they have? Some ports?

Wise ass

Ragoo said:

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Weird how leftist suddenly back the president when their own dollars are at stake.

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Honestly have never thought of him as a leftist. Mainly an eccentric and egomaniac.

Lol I had a nice chart with my volume spikes highlighted etc... couldn't figure out pictures, maybe this thread is the thing that finally makes me learn how to post a pic on Texags.

But ya taking a look at their fundamentals this has trade potential but also I wouldn't mind holding the investment on a longer term. Also it's a good diversification away from O&G - I've heard a lot of boring/predictable pitches for XOM/RDS/CVX recently, while I don't think those are that risky I just think "born in Texas huh?" whenever I hear that pitch.

McInnis 03 said:

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Is playing a gap fill an effective strategy?

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Yes but not necessarily for a short term trade. I like entering in stocks that have a gap on the way down as they always seem to fill. Problem is sometimes it takes longer than expected / I would like

leoj said:

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Ragoo said:

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Weird how leftist suddenly back the president when their own dollars are at stake.

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Honestly have never thought of him as a leftist. Mainly an eccentric and egomaniac.

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Yeah I think he's pretty libertarian like most billionaires. Pro weed, and deregulation of trade and such.

Every knee shall bow and every tongue shall confess