WTI crude now around $16.40...WOW

ryanhnc10 said:

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WTI crude now around $16.40...WOW

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It's a commodity, it lags. Once countries reopen, demand will pickup and when the cuts kick in the price should improve.

ryanhnc10 said:

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WTI crude now around $16.40...WOW

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Check again

Limit up by 9:28 EDT. Lol.

Exsurge Domine said:

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ryanhnc10 said:

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WTI crude now around $16.40...WOW

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Check again

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How do you expect this to affect the big boys? How far we thinking XOM, CVX, RDSB gonna fall? I've got some cash ready

Prognightmare said:

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ryanhnc10 said:

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WTI crude now around $16.40...WOW

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It's a commodity, it lags. Once countries reopen, demand will pickup and when the cuts kick in the price should improve.

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The front month contract (May) likely will not. The price has to drop to force shut-ins.

There is a disconnect in the futures strip; the June contract has fallen, but is still about $10 higher (or 40%) than the front month.

I would not expect a pop in US oil futures based on global demand in the near term.

wow it capitulated at $14.60

oldarmy1 said:

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Seeing that PPP funding for another $475M passed. Futures still red. I went ahead and bought the ES Mini on the news as I don't see how that isn't a short term catalyst.

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I would think it would pump some as well, but the market seems to do the opposite of what I think lately.

You would think so, but then again the market rallies when unemployment is worse than projected.

What's the play to make it on oil. USO leaps?

For those of you that use CheddarFlow is there anything specific you watch out for or any tips on using it? Just signed up to try it out, would greatly appreciate any advice or insight.

amg1996 said:

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For those of you that use CheddarFlow is there anything specific you watch out for or any tips on using it? Just signed up to try it out, would greatly appreciate any advice or insight.

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I like tracking unusual activity, especially with "hot names". Last week you had massive unusual activity on Gilead and Boeing right before big news dropped on them.

McInnis 03 said:

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What's the play to make it on oil. USO leaps?

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the other way or... DUG if you get in early a.m. and get out quick.

McInnis 03 said:

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What's the play to make it on oil. USO leaps?

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USO does not track the spot price super well and suffers decay through contract roll when in contango (which the futures strip is heavily right now).

Futures would probably be your best bet. Or, take a small chunk of "fun" money and buy some far OTM calls on futures contracts two years out and wait.

Unless you think oil rebounds quickly . Then a leveraged etf tracking oil would be the play.

McInnis 03 said:

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What's the play to make it on oil. USO leaps?

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I don't like option speculation with oil, too many negative headwinds in front of it. I will be buying XOM and CHV should they drop 15-20% though.

I think CHK lotto puts are winners as well. Always a risk Trump does something crazy though. Maybe pair them with a long USO lotto

ETA: never mind in the CHK puts, damn those things are expensive

Are there any crude oil leveraged ETFs people like? Or should i stick to individual companies?

Crude at 13.xx at this moment

The internet is full of opinions - a quick search on oil, interesting thoughts:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/seekingalpha.com/amp/article/4338311-betting-on-higher-oil-prices-uso-is-not-right-vehicle

https://www.google.com/amp/s/finance.yahoo.com/amphtml/news/energy-hedge-fund-shorted-oil-164008601.html

Every knee shall bow and every tongue shall confess

How about shorting any O&G independents? Specifically MTDR. I am hesitant that they have already priced in 0.00 barrel and we will see green from every one of them.

WTI is at $12.48.

Make that 11.74.

Good read

Those 100 SPY Puts are rocking. Sold the ES Mini call when seeing the false news on the PPP deal. Now I bought SPY at $281.43 against 30% of the Puts.

Now it's a waiting game

jj9000 said:

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Aggies1322 said:

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Are there any crude oil leveraged ETFs people like? Or should i stick to individual companies?

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Not crude specific, but, VDE aligns with some of the big boys if you don't want single company exposure.

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XLE too. DIG has a play on XOM and CVX.

oldarmy1 said:

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Those 100 SPY Puts are rocking. Sold the ES Mini call when seeing the false news on the PPP deal. Now I bought SPY at $281.43 against 30% of the Puts.

Now it's a waiting game

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This might be a dumb question for someone who has been following this thread for a while, but I just can't help myself...

When you say "I bought SPY against 30% of the Puts", does that mean you bought enough shares to cover those puts? In this case you had 100 puts, you bought against 30 of them, so does that mean 3000 shares?

Sorry if it's dumb, but you say this a lot and I've always struggled with understanding it.

You reasoned it correctly. So I buy 3000 shares and have 10000 shares represented by the 100 Puts. Basically a hedge within the hedge because if we make a rebound into open of any kind the Puts will lose the anticipated gains. So I have less risk with greater reward.

Now, should it stay around here at the open I would likely sell covered calls at a level that would get me $5+ on the 3000 shares and same if drop further. I would sell 40 of the Puts if they go into the money offsetting 100% of the entire trade and then decide if I want to buy shares at zero risk against remaining Puts or ride Puts if we lose $280 technical.