Today Trump made this economic statement- "if we weren't doing well the market would'nt be where it is today"...."I think we are going to top those previous record high levels soon".

Feels a bit like deja vu or a Trump sig on print out of stock market daily record.

Unless there's a legitimate cure there's no logical way you can NOT expect this.

True, and the market will be focusing on 2021 earnings. The amount of liquidity that's going to flow into this market is unprecedented. The caveat being if the US shuts down again with another flare up. I don't think Trump will shut the economy down again. Estimates will be lower and easier to beat. This will create a hyper bubble but you either trade it and profit or fight it, because "this shouldn't be happening because it does make sense" and lose. I'm still positioned for a short term drop but if it doesn't start pretty quick, I may take my loss and wait to regroup. Everyday that this market goes higher, the odds of a "V" recovery come into play. FOMO will send this market to ATHs imo.

If we open up in May and the real the brunt of impact is limited to travel associated biz, then maybe the Fed over-reacted in same way Cuomo did with ventaliators. If future data shows CV19 antibodies are prevalent in the population, then the entire ordeal is significantly de-risked and all those actions in heat of moment may have been too much. That's a bullish perspective, the counter bearish outlook is that this cash will be micromanaged by regulators to ensure corporations are hamstringed into prioritizing employment over shareholders.

Remove the companies that will tap the fed for a bailout from the equation. What about the companies that have solid balance sheets? You don't think they will get loans at .25-.50 and buyback their own stock? Management would be foolish if they didn't.

this is from badharambe (a poster here), interesting comparison and take...he's a great twitter follow too, knows his stuff.

Totally agree with all of the analysis. My only concern is the viability and accuracy of the numbers at present. Dallas for instance still only has two test sites open, and they have reportedly very long lines (more and better testing may show some people infected asymptomatically, or some people who thought they had flu were actually infected, or potentially some deaths un-tested may have be infected. That could skew the numbers positive or negative). I'm an uber conservative when it comes to risk taking though (please disregard my gambling on options with 2% of my portfolio haha).

Best case scenario, numbers are accurate, real local economies starts to rebound (not the market, as that seems to be holding this rally with fed funny money), and we start finding the new normal.

Worst case scenario, numbers aren't quite right, and models weren't quite accurate either. We end up in another lockdown, and panic sets in with people who think we'll rebound cases every time we lift. New normal gets harder to find.

I'm sure it will be somewhere in the middle, but if the fed is going to print money to keep it all together, might as well take an extra couple weeks to make sure the data is right. That's my mind set, but I understand the arguments both ways.

khaos288 said:

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Totally agree with all of the analysis. My only concern is the viability and accuracy of the numbers at present. Dallas for instance still only has two test sites open, and they have reportedly very long lines (more and better testing may show some people infected asymptomatically, or some people who thought they had flu were actually infected, or potentially some deaths un-tested may have be infected. That could skew the numbers positive or negative). I'm an uber conservative when it comes to risk taking though (please disregard my gambling on options with 2% of my portfolio haha).

Best case scenario, numbers are accurate, real local economies starts to rebound (not the market, as that seems to be holding this rally with fed funny money), and we start finding the new normal.

Worst case scenario, numbers aren't quite right, and models weren't quite accurate either. We end up in another lockdown, and panic sets in with people who think we'll rebound cases every time we lift. New normal gets harder to find.

I'm sure it will be somewhere in the middle, but if the fed is going to print money to keep it all together, might as well take an extra couple weeks to make sure the data is right. That's my mind set, but I understand the arguments both ways.

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Im on the open up ASAP side for Texas, but agree that it will probably be somewhere in between the two sides of thought (as with most things in life)

I just read the last 50 pages of this thread, and I still don't know what y'all are talking about 75% of the time, but I do have a question:

With the announcements regarding several countries cutting back oil production, is now still a good time to buy XOM?

Laser Wolf said:

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I just read the last 50 pages of this thread, and I still don't know what y'all are talking about 75% of the time, but I do have a question:

With the announcements regarding several countries cutting back oil production, is now still a good time to buy XOM?

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Any of the major O&Gs are a good buy right now. Still 40-50% off their normal levels

I thought for sure that's where that post was going

Can someone inform me how to produce the graph on TD Ameritrade app to show my investments compared to S&P and nyse

Thoughts on the 'Reopen America Groups' that was announced today? Does this turn us green tomorrow or do we slide further red? Names are very impressive.

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/president-donald-j-trump-announces-great-american-economic-revival-industry-groups/

AggieKeith15 said:

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Thoughts on the 'Reopen America Groups' that was announced today? Does this turn us green tomorrow or do we slide further red? Names are very impressive.

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/president-donald-j-trump-announces-great-american-economic-revival-industry-groups/

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Green baby

Sweet Jesus that's an impressive list. Love that Home Depot has 3 people in the group

What is a group that size going to accomplish? I'm in the f it, reopen the economy camp so that we can prove one group or another wrong.

I have seen Manic Trading listed on here but was wondering if anyone has tried Motley Fool or Zach's List subscriptions for trading ideas. If so, do you recommend?

BB675 said:

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I have seen Manic Trading listed on here but was wondering if anyone has tried Motley Fool or Zach's List subscriptions for trading ideas. If so, do you recommend?

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Manic is an options trading service. For medium/short term holds, I'd just follow this thread.

$30,000 Millionaire said:

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What is a group that size going to accomplish? I'm in the f it, reopen the economy camp so that we can prove one group or another wrong.

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Minimize the *****ing when reality hits and we don't open back up.

Aggie Hunter said:

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Can someone inform me how to produce the graph on TD Ameritrade app to show my investments compared to S&P and nyse

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I use TDA and can't find a way to do this either, so I'm interested.

There have been over 2000 tested here in BCS and around 100 positive... that's a lot of negatives. My family, including myself and a good buddy of mine are semi convinced we got it early February. I had lung congestion and junk for about a month. I felt pretty good physically though and no fevers that I remember.

I would not at all be surprised if this thing has been around for months longer than what we think.

khkman22 said:

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I was about to email staff to ban you if you asked about the model T.

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I was going to be cute and ask about it, but I thought nawwwww.

Since this is entertaining, what's everyone's call for tomorrow? We have more earnings so I will vote against what's logical for me and say we'll be up another 2.5% and we sniff SPY 290. If we do have a down day, it will probably be something underwhelming like -1%.

What's your call?

$30,000 Millionaire said:

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Since this is entertaining, what's everyone's call for tomorrow? We have more earnings so I will vote against what's logical for me and say we'll be up another 2.5% and we sniff SPY 290. If we do have a down day, it will probably be something underwhelming like -1%.

What's your call?

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The entire market does a Model T maneuver causing this thread, and heads, to explode.

I think Nasdaq won't go much above the 61.8% fib retracement, if at all, for a while. It's moved too far, too fast.




That means it will blow by it tomorrow.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/texas

That's the Washington model that's been referred to a bunch. It says our nation's peak resource demand was on April 10, and projects Texas to have peak resource demand on April 29 (it keeps getting pushed back).

I don't think we'll be first to return to normal, unless we get some warm weather that makes a big difference.

Futures are -0.34%. +5% by 8:30 central?

Earlier in the evening my hunch was that tomorrow we'd finish in the red (down 1-2%) but that we would start the day in the green. However since the futures are still down right now I'm feeling a little more pessimistic. I'm leaning towards the spy opening at -0.25% and then going to ~2.7% by close now instead. All just a hunch though.

Initially I thought the release of the 2nd task force and the direct deposits tomorrow were going to be bigger factors, but judging by the futures, it feels like people are fatigued.