Not really if Companies require masks, social distancing, and routine cleaning.RSP715 said:
The don is crazy if he thinks things are opening up in May. Very soft open maybe and it's not his call anyway. It's state and local.
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gougler08 said:RSP715 said:
The don is crazy if he thinks things are opening up in May. Very soft open maybe and it's not his call anyway. It's state and local.
I'll be surprised if we aren't doing something in early May in Texas. This has lasted long enough for the absolute non issue it's been here
I agree that some states probably need longer, but the overwhelming majority of the country is fine and needs to get back to work
That's the worst thing about social distancing. When you're doing it right, the outcome looks like it isn't needed anymore.
khaos288 said:gougler08 said:RSP715 said:
The don is crazy if he thinks things are opening up in May. Very soft open maybe and it's not his call anyway. It's state and local.
I'll be surprised if we aren't doing something in early May in Texas. This has lasted long enough for the absolute non issue it's been here
I agree that some states probably need longer, but the overwhelming majority of the country is fine and needs to get back to work
That's the worst thing about social distancing. When you're doing it right, the outcome looks like it isn't needed anymore.
My wife and I were talking about this. There's a term for it and we can't for the life of us remember. Not self fulfilling prophecy, I don't think fallacy... someone help out here.
Perfect example is social distancing and quarantine. If it works perfectly there's no casualties and everyone points to what an overreaction it was when in fact it was (in theory) the causation of why things are in good shape here.
khaos288 said:gougler08 said:McInnis 03 said:
Time to open up at the beginning of May
If so, let's hope all the models were wrong on re-opening too soon. That could be just in time to stack the hospitals up over the summer and ruin football season.
We aren't going to see any large scale gatherings until the vaccine is out
Chart from 1918 influenza. Not trying to make a comparison to mortality, but look at a historical precedent for number of single vs. double peaks and discrepancy nationwide. The national task force has made a big deal about this being a bunch of "micro-pandemics" and are addressing each metro area differently. Same logic applies for GDP when averaged up to national level, IMO.
khaos288 said:gougler08 said:RSP715 said:
The don is crazy if he thinks things are opening up in May. Very soft open maybe and it's not his call anyway. It's state and local.
I'll be surprised if we aren't doing something in early May in Texas. This has lasted long enough for the absolute non issue it's been here
I agree that some states probably need longer, but the overwhelming majority of the country is fine and needs to get back to work
That's the worst thing about social distancing. When you're doing it right, the outcome looks like it isn't needed anymore.
Of course it would have been worse if we hadn't gone to the drastic measures we have, but I also don't think it would have been the millions dead that were originally predicted either. I think it's time to get back out unless you have some medical issues or are in states that have had severe outbreaks
gougler08 said:khaos288 said:gougler08 said:RSP715 said:
The don is crazy if he thinks things are opening up in May. Very soft open maybe and it's not his call anyway. It's state and local.
I'll be surprised if we aren't doing something in early May in Texas. This has lasted long enough for the absolute non issue it's been here
I agree that some states probably need longer, but the overwhelming majority of the country is fine and needs to get back to work
That's the worst thing about social distancing. When you're doing it right, the outcome looks like it isn't needed anymore.
Of course it would have been worse if we hadn't gone to the drastic measures we have, but I also don't think it would have been the millions dead that were originally predicted either. I think it's time to get back out unless you have some medical issues or are in states that have had severe outbreaks
Yeah "20 million dead" or whatever was super fear driven. Thankfully those people were way off.
Last numbers I saw for dfw was about 55% capacity of ICU and 60% of ventilators in use. That's way too high for my risk tolerance. I work from home, and my wife is a stay at home mom with our infant. I'll be at home for awhile for sure. I think there will be some relaxed measures, with guidance for masks and what not. I just hope they get the timing right. It's such a dangerous thing to get wrong.
**edit to add, it would be a disaster to become one of the hot spot states by opening too soon. From a curve flattening perspective, if we can keep hot spots to a minimum we could even send medical personnel to places that needed it most from places that aren't getting hit hard.
gougler08 said:khaos288 said:gougler08 said:RSP715 said:
The don is crazy if he thinks things are opening up in May. Very soft open maybe and it's not his call anyway. It's state and local.
I'll be surprised if we aren't doing something in early May in Texas. This has lasted long enough for the absolute non issue it's been here
I agree that some states probably need longer, but the overwhelming majority of the country is fine and needs to get back to work
That's the worst thing about social distancing. When you're doing it right, the outcome looks like it isn't needed anymore.
Of course it would have been worse if we hadn't gone to the drastic measures we have, but I also don't think it would have been the millions dead that were originally predicted either. I think it's time to get back out unless you have some medical issues or are in states that have had severe outbreaks
There's a whole lot between healthy and dead that I don't want any part of. Just remember, "face masks don't help".
Very premature to make such claimsTxAG#2011 said:khaos288 said:gougler08 said:McInnis 03 said:
Time to open up at the beginning of May
If so, let's hope all the models were wrong on re-opening too soon. That could be just in time to stack the hospitals up over the summer and ruin football season.
We aren't going to see any large scale gatherings until the vaccine is out
catch 22Grown Pear said:khaos288 said:gougler08 said:RSP715 said:
The don is crazy if he thinks things are opening up in May. Very soft open maybe and it's not his call anyway. It's state and local.
I'll be surprised if we aren't doing something in early May in Texas. This has lasted long enough for the absolute non issue it's been here
I agree that some states probably need longer, but the overwhelming majority of the country is fine and needs to get back to work
That's the worst thing about social distancing. When you're doing it right, the outcome looks like it isn't needed anymore.
My wife and I were talking about this. There's a term for it and we can't for the life of us remember. Not self fulfilling prophecy, I don't think fallacy... someone help out here.
Perfect example is social distancing and quarantine. If it works perfectly there's no casualties and everyone points to what an overreaction it was when in fact it was (in theory) the causation of why things are in good shape here.
As long as we have a very good understanding of A) how to quickly make a diagnosis and B) treat such that mortality is reduced amongst the majority of the population then I am ok. We cannot protect everyone from death, but a treatment regiment that works for 99+% of the population is more than enough.
Ragoo said:recession has a very specific definition and is trailing in nature. Everyone understands where we are today. What we don't know and can only speculate is if the trend continues down or if this is just a step change for future growth. My guess is the latter and the "recession" is a short lived blip due to a global health issue and not a systematic financial problem.HYC_AG said:Ragoo said:Q1 and Q2 may recess, but Q3 will probably be better than Q2. And so forth.claym711 said:
We are in a recession.
So you agree we are in a recession? I'm confused. Also, identifying something as it's happening is much more valuable to an investing board than waiting to quarters to say "yup, we are in a recession".
Bold claim on Q3 and Q4 by the way.
My opinion. Yours may be different.
Imo, I believe you're closer to the actual place where we are at. If you go by contraction numbers then, by definition, we are in a recession. However, this drop is from an existential crises and not a fundamental flaw in the economy. People aren't being furloughed because consumers have pulled back out of fear, they just don't have anywhere to shop because of dictates from government. The economy was extremely strong before this and I believe a snap back will occur when we fire back up. If Texas opens, and leads the way, then other states will follow.
The thing to watch beginning this week is the markets reaction to companies forward looking statements when they report earnings. Expect bad numbers and horrible guidance, because companies will use this opportunity to get estimates lowered for the year and make earnings beats easier later this year. Also, companies sitting on a lot of cash that don't get a bailout will want to buy their own stock, increasing the likelihood of earnings beats down the road.
That brings us to the fed. The amount of liquidity that will pour in the market should not be ignored because the markets don't go where you think they should. FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) and TINA (There is No Alternative) are alive and well. With interest rates at zero, for all intents and purposes, there is nowhere else to go with your money for it to appreciate other than equities or real estate, if it falls based on what Irish said. It's much easier for people to buy stock than plunk down a nut for some land. Hell, anecdotally from people on this thread, people don't want to miss a rebound. We have thread participants saying this almost daily but they're hesitant for good reasons.
With all that being said, I suspect and positioned myself for a pullback in the short term. I still believe if we haven't retested the low by 4/24 then we won't, but we will have a W type of recovery. I know Clay catches some **** but in reality, his macro view and analysis is spot on. However, I've experienced and seen many of people get crushed because of principles.
Like OA said on Thursday, the easy money thus far has been made and you need to sharpen your focus and decision making in this market and don't fret taking a small hickey to reload if you know it was a mistake.
I apologize for the diatribe but it's Sunday and I've had a good day with my son and I only want everyone here to succeed and achieve their dreams. This is just my opinion, it's neither right or wrong, but I wanted to share with you guys.
Happy Easter,
Gig'em
Close and fitting. I think technically I was looking thinking more "self-defeating prophecy".
But we digress! Trading thread... I predict the market is RED for the week.
But we digress! Trading thread... I predict the market is RED for the week.
Ragoo said:
As long as we have a very good understanding of A) how to quickly make a diagnosis and B) treat such that mortality is reduced amongst the majority of the population then I am ok. We cannot protect everyone from death, but a treatment regiment that works for 99+% of the population is more than enough.
Yep. If we can get tests widely available, treatment plans out, and effectively reduce mortality, then the world will resume quick. At that point it's just another disease.
Agree with so much here. I'm all cash everywhere, but if we survive the short term without re-testing, I'll start buying in.
Also, awesome about the family time man. My parents divorced young, and I'll never forget going out fishing with my dad, building rockets, shooting, or whatever else we did as some of the best times of our lives.
Also, awesome about the family time man. My parents divorced young, and I'll never forget going out fishing with my dad, building rockets, shooting, or whatever else we did as some of the best times of our lives.
Thank you, he's only 4 and this divorce is still confusing for him. I hid Easter eggs last night after he went to sleep and the excitement and happiness I was able to witness this morning I can't even put into words. I'm an old first time dad but he's my world. His mother picked him up this afternoon because it's her week and he didn't want to let me go. I melted and yes, started having a few beers. That's probably why I did such a long post.
test are fine but they need to be a quicker turnaround. Something like 15 minutes would be best.khaos288 said:Ragoo said:
As long as we have a very good understanding of A) how to quickly make a diagnosis and B) treat such that mortality is reduced amongst the majority of the population then I am ok. We cannot protect everyone from death, but a treatment regiment that works for 99+% of the population is more than enough.
Yep. If we can get tests widely available, treatment plans out, and effectively reduce mortality, then the world will resume quick. At that point it's just another disease.
ABT has a 5 minute test now that they are mass producing.
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Quote:
Last numbers I saw for dfw was about 55% capacity of ICU and 60% of ventilators in use. That's way too high for my risk tolerance.
That's what an average day looks like for most hospitals.
All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others
Yeah sorry should have been more specific. Drive thru 15 minute tests would be amazing.
Imagine sporting events where you just had to present your passed test from the last 48 hours with your ticket to get in? Something like that could be very effective. Idk I'm hopeful. Human innovation is a wonderful thing.
Imagine sporting events where you just had to present your passed test from the last 48 hours with your ticket to get in? Something like that could be very effective. Idk I'm hopeful. Human innovation is a wonderful thing.
Mtn_Guide said:Quote:
Last numbers I saw for dfw was about 55% capacity of ICU and 60% of ventilators in use. That's way too high for my risk tolerance.
That's what an average day looks like for most hospitals.
Oh really? The article I read made it seem that was about double for icu capacity and way more for ventilator use. I'll have to go back and read again to make sure I didn't misread it.
No. That's a rabbit hole we as a country do not want to go down
What's the alternative? Wait until we're clear enough for zero testing and open up sporting events?
I'm totally onboard with not giving up civil liberties during the panic if that's the thread you're pulling. I just didn't think that fit the category.
I'm totally onboard with not giving up civil liberties during the panic if that's the thread you're pulling. I just didn't think that fit the category.
Ok. I want you to present evidence you don't have HIV before you attend an event. I want proof that you haven't had the flu or common cold in the last 48hrs. I want proof that you've been vaccinated for tetanus. I want proof of all your medical records before you can enter
IrishTxAggie said:
Ok. I want you to present evidence you don't have HIV before you attend an event. I want proof that you haven't had the flu or common cold in the last 48hrs. I want proof that you've been vaccinated for tetanus. I want proof of all your medical records before you can enter
That's where I thought you were going as soon as I read it. Makes sense as a dangerous precedent. I could definitely see it being abused for "non-world wide pandemics" by someone power tripping. You would hope they could figure something out that wasn't immediately abused, but oh well.
I hate getting caught being optimistic about people every now and then haha
IrishTxAggie said:
Ok. I want you to present evidence you don't have HIV before you attend an event. I want proof that you haven't had the flu or common cold in the last 48hrs. I want proof that you've been vaccinated for tetanus. I want proof of all your medical records before you can enter
If the alternative is no sporting events, I think people would make the effort to take a test. Not even a question.
I'm already in the sports withdrawals stage. You tell me there's no football in the fall and I'd snap. Give me the damn test and I'll do it myself.
You're a good dad.
All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others
Prognightmare said:
ABT has a 5 minute test now that they are mass producing.
The ABT test is a great step forward but will be more important is the antibody test. Those are still 1-2 weeks from being available. That will tell us al lot more about what percent of the population has been exposed and will allow us to actually model future spread.
All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others
My problem is that in the last five years, we've seen what companies have done with our DNA with these lineage and ancestors testing. But also they sell it to third parties for use too. We begin to further allow these types of intrusions into our personal lives and information, we're asking for huge civil liberties violations. Hell, look into what Bill Gates is advocating for.
IrishTxAggie said:
My problem is that in the last five years, we've seen what companies have done with our DNA with these lineage and ancestors testing. But also they sell it to third parties for use too. We begin to further allow these types of intrusions into our personal lives and information, we're asking for huge civil liberties violations. Hell, look into what Bill Gates is advocating for.
Which is legitimate. That issue is easily addressed though. If they develop an antibody snap test, like a dog heartworm type test. They take a few drops of your blood, add it to a reagent and run the test on the cartridge, then toss the test after the results. It is run in front of you with the results within 10 minutes. No sample saved or submitted. No blood or dna kept to use as they please later.
As everyone already knows, I think many here are underestimating the damage. Here's Dalio on this as well - he estimates more damage than the financial crisis:
https://www.ted.com/talks/ray_dalio_what_coronavirus_means_for_the_global_economy?utm_source=t.co&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=TCSpeakers&utm_content=RDconnects#t-789633
https://www.ted.com/talks/ray_dalio_what_coronavirus_means_for_the_global_economy?utm_source=t.co&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=TCSpeakers&utm_content=RDconnects#t-789633
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/11/jpmorgan-chase-to-raise-mortgage-borrowing-standards-as-economic-outlook-darkens.html
Quote:
JPMorgan Chase, the country's largest lender by assets, is raising borrowing standards this week for most new home loans as the bank moves to mitigate lending risk stemming from the novel coronavirus disruption.
From Tuesday, customers applying for a new mortgage will need a credit score of at least 700, and will be required to make a down payment equal to 20% of the home's value.
The change highlights how banks are quickly shifting gears to respond to the darkening U.S. economic outlook and stress in the housing market, after measures to contain the virus put 16 million people out of work and plunged the country into recession.
"Due to the economic uncertainty, we are making temporary changes that will allow us to more closely focus on serving our existing customers," Amy Bonitatibus, chief marketing officer for JPMorgan Chase's home lending business, told Reuters
khaos288 said:Mtn_Guide said:Quote:
Last numbers I saw for dfw was about 55% capacity of ICU and 60% of ventilators in use. That's way too high for my risk tolerance.
That's what an average day looks like for most hospitals.
Oh really? The article I read made it seem that was about double for icu capacity and way more for ventilator use. I'll have to go back and read again to make sure I didn't misread it.
Maybe one of the docs on here can correct me but that's about what I remember when I worked in medicine. Two more points:
1) Media sucks and has a financial interest in fear mongering.
2) social distancing has bought us a lot of valuable time to get resources up to speed. Our hospital is a regional trauma center and we are converting the first floor of our parking garage into a 600 bed covid wing in order to keep it separate from the rest of the sick patients. It will be able to take its first patients as early as middle of May.
Hospitals around the country are buying hotels adjacent to them and turning them into care centers.
My sister runs Wyoming Hospice. They changed a 20 bed facility into an ICU in three weeks. Then retrained half of her nurses to treat COVID patients at home health so they can keep people isolated.
Point of all of this being we have bought time and now can dramatically handle a lot more patients.
All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others
if we can test quickly and treat effectively then the public concern goes away for 99+% of all people. At risk individuals at their own risk.WoMD said:IrishTxAggie said:
Ok. I want you to present evidence you don't have HIV before you attend an event. I want proof that you haven't had the flu or common cold in the last 48hrs. I want proof that you've been vaccinated for tetanus. I want proof of all your medical records before you can enter
If the alternative is no sporting events, I think people would make the effort to take a test. Not even a question.
I'm already in the sports withdrawals stage. You tell me there's no football in the fall and I'd snap. Give me the damn test and I'll do it myself.
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