Sounds like a good idea. If we could come up with a FAQ to post in the OP that would be great, but not sure OA has the time to come up with it.Touchless said:
Also, given all of the questions asked on here regarding the Model T (myself included in the last month and a half), maybe OA would be gracious enough to throw a quick blurb in the OP and we can just refer others to the first post in the thread instead of having to re-explain it all the time. Just a thought given all of the discussion/questions around it.
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Touchless said:That's a really good chart. Crazy how it followed all the levels pretty much perfectly. Only question I would have is the line at 78.6%. Should that line be 76.4% instead? 76.4% is $310.2 and looks to match up almost perfectly with the larger support level. Plus that is as equidistant from 100% as 23.6% is from 0%.Exsurge Domine said:CSTXAg92 said:Thank you Exsurge.Exsurge Domine said:CSTXAg92 said:
Back to the market and stocks:
Can one of the regulars please take a minute and explain 'Model T' that is so often referred to in this thread?
Thanks in advance.
Easy explanation, a stock will retrace 50% of its trend between the high and low.
If a stock was at 100 high, then ranked to a low of 20, you should expect a gradual increase back to 60 before it heads lower again.
No problem buddy, this will help you visualize
[url=https://ibb.co/s6TqYCf][/url]
You can see that the S&P 500 started a downward trend at 339.38, and bottomed out at $217.75. You can see it has no worked its way back to the 50% line.
You can also see how crazy accurate the fib lines of resistance and support have been for Spy during the time
Haha, don't get me started they use 78.6 as it's the square root of .618. Why that's important I'm not sure.
This times a million. I am going to lose my **** if one more American Airlines employee *****es to me about stock buybacks when their pension plan was the largest holder of the stock at the time of the buybacks.Ragoo said:the same tax payer that enjoyed the "benefit" of a rising stock market because corporations were taking on cheap debt and buying back shares with their free cash flow?hedge said:
taxpayer
ETA: Rant over, back to stocks
All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others
They also recently took several weeks to refund me my money from cancelling.
ZipForms for life!
ZipForms for life!
I imagine their slow down will be in April and May. People still buying in February and early March. Factor in the lag time to closing and they're running 30-60 days behind
It makes sense. Anyone completing a signing now was already 3-4 months into the process and already had earnest money on the table. Let's see how these numbers look in 4 months.
Also, wouldn't a decline in real estate purchases be partly offset by foreclosure signings?
Also, wouldn't a decline in real estate purchases be partly offset by foreclosure signings?
All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others
****, I've purchased four homes. I wish the turn around had been 30-60 days. The longest one took 8 monthsIrishTxAggie said:
I imagine their slow down will be in April and May. People still buying in February and early March. Factor in the lag time to closing and they're running 30-60 days behind
All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others
Eight months from offer to closing?! What the hell took so long?
Interesting. I'm not really that familiar with it, but just looking at the chart, that percentage looked to be even more accurate (in this one instance) and in my mind it made sense that the first threshold from the top would be the same as the first threshold from the bottom. Especially since 61.8% and 31.2% are equidistant from the middle.
Didn't pass septic inspection. We were at an impasse until they got it fixed.IrishTxAggie said:
Eight months from offer to closing?! What the hell took so long?
I have a friend in Wilson, Wyoming that took over a year because the property boundaries didn't match what was recorded with the county. And on a $6M deal, those two things better damn well match.
ETA: If you ever purchase real estate in a mountain town timing is everything. Over 90% of real estate business is done during the summertime. So if the process drags into the late fall you have the seller by the balls. If you walk away in November its almost a guarantee that the seller will have to carry the property into the summer just to start the process over again. That might mean carrying a property, for which they need liquidity, for another 7 months to a year.
IT's amazing the concessions you can leverage.
All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others
Another data point supporting the DocuSign CEO's assertion: My wife is in real estate (Austin) and hasn't seen a let up either. It's she's been crazy busy. Virtual showings, social distanced showings, listings (masks, hand sanitizes, gloves), virtual listing presentations... Market seems to have remained strong.Prognightmare said:
FWIW
It's so hard to tell. How do you do technical analysis in the face of trillions of dollars of stimulus, the market panic buying and selling based on news, and news coming out every 3 minutes?
Uh let's go with "The market is rigged" for a thousand, Alex.Exsurge Domine said:
It's so hard to tell. How do you do technical analysis in the face of trillions of dollars of stimulus, the market panic buying and selling based on news, and news coming out every 3 minutes?
IMO, powers that be want the market lower and the end talk of reopening May 1st.
Every knee shall bow and every tongue shall confess
OverSeas AG said:
Model T question:
What is the time period for this? Going from 1 day to 30 days? I suspect that it is generally a shorter time period, but can be a longer one, I am wondering what the longer time period would be? (practically speaking?)
It's just over a trend and reversal, high's and low's are a good way to do that.
Every knee shall bow and every tongue shall confess
It really is something to see when you think about it. The Fib lines give quite a bit of meaning to so many of the direction changes, even if only on a fakeout....
I started providing some stream of consciousness additions on the initial post. It's the easiest way for me to work, so let me know if it makes sense.Touchless said:
Also, given all of the questions asked on here regarding the Model T (myself included in the last month and a half), maybe OA would be gracious enough to throw a quick blurb in the OP and we can just refer others to the first post in the thread instead of having to re-explain it all the time. Just a thought given all of the discussion/questions around it.
Oh that was tasty. I like it! Nice edit.oldarmy1 said:I started providing some stream of consciousness additions on the initial post. It's the easiest way for me to work, so let me know if it makes sense.Touchless said:
Also, given all of the questions asked on here regarding the Model T (myself included in the last month and a half), maybe OA would be gracious enough to throw a quick blurb in the OP and we can just refer others to the first post in the thread instead of having to re-explain it all the time. Just a thought given all of the discussion/questions around it.
OverSeas AG said:
Model T question:
What is the time period for this? Going from 1 day to 30 days? I suspect that it is generally a shorter time period, but can be a longer one, I am wondering what the longer time period would be? (practically speaking?)
This is by no means infallible, but the 50% threshold from a top to a bottom generally symbolizes a change in trend, hence why the model "t" 50% number is so important. Check out the Spy chart I posted again, you can see it got really close back to 50% on its initial retracement, but was still a few points off.
As Prog said the Fibonacci lines help point to whether a rally or a gain is just a retracement or a possible new trend developing. You can also look at stuff like VWAP and PoC to help give you more signals.
So you wouldn't really look at a trend within a trend, unless you get really technical with candlestick analysis and stuff like that. It's either a retracement or the start of a new trend.
Every knee shall bow and every tongue shall confess
Boeing received a lot of attention at today's press conference. President basically said..."you can't let anything happen to Boeing". Up 3% today
yesterday
Aggie95 said:
Boeing received a lot of attention at today's press conference. President basically said..."you can't let anything happen to Boeing". Up 3% today
I get that, but it's like at some point they're going to have to make planes again, and I don't see any demand for new planes any time soon
When does the Dept of Defense enter into a newExsurge Domine said:Aggie95 said:
Boeing received a lot of attention at today's press conference. President basically said..."you can't let anything happen to Boeing". Up 3% today
I get that, but it's like at some point they're going to have to make planes again, and I don't see any demand for new planes any time soon
Question for the Model T team:
Here's a chart of SPY from 2/18-4/9. Apparent downward trend. Fib/Model T lines applied...
- It would appear the 220 mark was a was a trend reversal.
- On 4/9 activity reached the 50% level of Fib.
Given this set of data, what are other observations you would gleen from the chart and what would you be on the lookout for going into trading next week?
Here's a chart of SPY from 2/18-4/9. Apparent downward trend. Fib/Model T lines applied...
- It would appear the 220 mark was a was a trend reversal.
- On 4/9 activity reached the 50% level of Fib.
Given this set of data, what are other observations you would gleen from the chart and what would you be on the lookout for going into trading next week?
I think most expect a pull back of some sort in April (maybe not all the way down to 220 but a decent way down; however, the fed throwing money at everything makes technical trading go out the window
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