cjo03 said:

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Ragoo said:

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BREwmaster said:

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Ragoo and me in Zwift...(I'm in the black kit with the colorful disc rear wheel). I just happened to run across him riding. He was doing a workout, so I didn't pester him long!

I was cooling down from a race, love kicking guy's arses from around the world. and get my butt kicked some too.

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oh wow. I haven't gone in and updated any thing. My rider dude and bike is all standard stuff. I was doing a TriDot workout.

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...you guys should wear helmets. No room in ER right now if you bonk your noggin.

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Actually tons of the room in the ER. Censuses in most hospitals are down more than 50%

gig em 02 said:

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$30,000 Millionaire said:

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Bonfire1996 said:

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The bottom is in. The PPP loan program is a smashing success. It will put an enormous backstop to layoffs and furloughs for the next 12 weeks, and is literally giving, not loaning, giving $350 billion to America's entrepreneurs. Mom and pops up to significant mid sized businesses just got a shot in the arm of liquidity that they have never dreamt of.

I'm a banker and I worked all weekend inputting loans in small town USA. This program saved hundreds of jobs in my small town alone. Extrapolate that across America, add liquidity to people who have proven they can make a buck, and the end result is a kick in the ass as we emerge from COVID 19.

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What if this lasts longer than 12 weeks? Consumption is also down. I feel like a retest will happen at a minimum.

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Username checks out. The optimism doesn't make sense to me, people don't have enough savings to be accountable for a month's rent but somehow they are going to make the lease payment for their BMW and the credit card payment and the Cell phone and cable and internet and Netflix and Hulu and Spotify.

Then all these people with no money are going to keep the small businesses afloat by shopping there and spending what money exactly?

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I agree. I just don't think $1200 is going to go very far for a lot of people.

Mother trucker...so we closed the gap on the futures chart?

Sold 50% of SPY at the opening of trading $258.20

Sold 25% of DIS at $98.25

Sold 50% of AAPL $252

Shorted 50% MSFT $160 against $157 calls to lock in net free holding on remaining calls.


Ah the early birds DO get the worms!

What system do you use that allows you to trade blue chips that early? I tried waking up early the other day and saw some opportunity, but Td wouldn't process any of the orders before 7ET.

...bloomberg terminal?

KSA-Russia deal imminent?

https://www.google.com/amp/s/finance.yahoo.com/amphtml/news/russia-saudi-very-close-oil-111033269.html

Every knee shall bow and every tongue shall confess

He knows something. It might be Russia/Saudi oil war or COVID19 slowing or both, but something positive is about to drop.

Ragoo said:

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Prognightmare said:

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He knows something. It might be Russia/Saudi oil war or COVID19 slowing or both, but something positive is about to drop.

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i will take positive covid news 100x over foreign oil negotiations.

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Hopefully positive COVID news. I'm also triple inverse ETF as of 30 min ago and buying a few long term plays.

If everyone is happy... make me happy and nervous at same time.

Rice and Fries said:

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gig em 02 said:

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$30,000 Millionaire said:

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Bonfire1996 said:

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The bottom is in. The PPP loan program is a smashing success. It will put an enormous backstop to layoffs and furloughs for the next 12 weeks, and is literally giving, not loaning, giving $350 billion to America's entrepreneurs. Mom and pops up to significant mid sized businesses just got a shot in the arm of liquidity that they have never dreamt of.

I'm a banker and I worked all weekend inputting loans in small town USA. This program saved hundreds of jobs in my small town alone. Extrapolate that across America, add liquidity to people who have proven they can make a buck, and the end result is a kick in the ass as we emerge from COVID 19.

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What if this lasts longer than 12 weeks? Consumption is also down. I feel like a retest will happen at a minimum.

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Username checks out. The optimism doesn't make sense to me, people don't have enough savings to be accountable for a month's rent but somehow they are going to make the lease payment for their BMW and the credit card payment and the Cell phone and cable and internet and Netflix and Hulu and Spotify.

Then all these people with no money are going to keep the small businesses afloat by shopping there and spending what money exactly?

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I agree. I just don't think $1200 is going to go very far for a lot of people.

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It isn't about $1200. It is that the unemployed are getting paid for four months. If you made $25/hr or less, you are getting paid the same or more. That is around $50k/yr.

The $ Bonfire is speaking about is $ to the biz owner. You get 2.5x payroll to keep paying your employees, self, and bills. If you don't lay anyone off, you are forgiven of the loan (some other minor rules).

Both the above means that most people, at a minimum, can pay their bills.

Our consumer financial situation (cash flow) is the healthiest it has been in over 50 years before this happened.

I'll bet the Treasury and SBA announce that over 100,000 PPP loans were entered and over 5 million jobs were protected by the program.

Harkrider 93 said:

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Rice and Fries said:

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gig em 02 said:

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$30,000 Millionaire said:

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Bonfire1996 said:

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The bottom is in. The PPP loan program is a smashing success. It will put an enormous backstop to layoffs and furloughs for the next 12 weeks, and is literally giving, not loaning, giving $350 billion to America's entrepreneurs. Mom and pops up to significant mid sized businesses just got a shot in the arm of liquidity that they have never dreamt of.

I'm a banker and I worked all weekend inputting loans in small town USA. This program saved hundreds of jobs in my small town alone. Extrapolate that across America, add liquidity to people who have proven they can make a buck, and the end result is a kick in the ass as we emerge from COVID 19.

---

What if this lasts longer than 12 weeks? Consumption is also down. I feel like a retest will happen at a minimum.

---

Username checks out. The optimism doesn't make sense to me, people don't have enough savings to be accountable for a month's rent but somehow they are going to make the lease payment for their BMW and the credit card payment and the Cell phone and cable and internet and Netflix and Hulu and Spotify.

Then all these people with no money are going to keep the small businesses afloat by shopping there and spending what money exactly?

---

I agree. I just don't think $1200 is going to go very far for a lot of people.

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It isn't about $1200. It is that the unemployed are getting paid for four months. If you made $25/hr or less, you are getting paid the same or more. That is around $50k/yr.

The $ Bonfire is speaking about is $ to the biz owner. You get 2.5x payroll to keep paying your employees, self, and bills. If you don't lay anyone off, you are forgiven of the loan (some other minor rules).

Both the above means that most people, at a minimum, can pay their bills.

Our consumer financial situation (cash flow) is the healthiest it has been in over 50 years before this happened.

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Bingo. The UE +600/wk is huge, and the PPP cannot be overstated. I'm eligible for a $1,200,000 loan/grant and I don't need to lay-off anyone at present due to a large amount of backlog, so It's going to be a ridiculous boon to my business

Harkrider 93 said:

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Rice and Fries said:

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gig em 02 said:

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$30,000 Millionaire said:

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Bonfire1996 said:

---

The bottom is in. The PPP loan program is a smashing success. It will put an enormous backstop to layoffs and furloughs for the next 12 weeks, and is literally giving, not loaning, giving $350 billion to America's entrepreneurs. Mom and pops up to significant mid sized businesses just got a shot in the arm of liquidity that they have never dreamt of.

I'm a banker and I worked all weekend inputting loans in small town USA. This program saved hundreds of jobs in my small town alone. Extrapolate that across America, add liquidity to people who have proven they can make a buck, and the end result is a kick in the ass as we emerge from COVID 19.

---

What if this lasts longer than 12 weeks? Consumption is also down. I feel like a retest will happen at a minimum.

---

Username checks out. The optimism doesn't make sense to me, people don't have enough savings to be accountable for a month's rent but somehow they are going to make the lease payment for their BMW and the credit card payment and the Cell phone and cable and internet and Netflix and Hulu and Spotify.

Then all these people with no money are going to keep the small businesses afloat by shopping there and spending what money exactly?

---

I agree. I just don't think $1200 is going to go very far for a lot of people.

---

It isn't about $1200. It is that the unemployed are getting paid for four months. If you made $25/hr or less, you are getting paid the same or more. That is around $50k/yr.

The $ Bonfire is speaking about is $ to the biz owner. You get 2.5x payroll to keep paying your employees, self, and bills. If you don't lay anyone off, you are forgiven of the loan (some other minor rules).

Both the above means that most people, at a minimum, can pay their bills.

Our consumer financial situation (cash flow) is the healthiest it has been in over 50 years before this happened.

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All debt driven max consumption levels. We won't be back there for years and years to come.

It's huge but has consequences. My wife now works 60 or more hours a week to survive when it was a typical 40. Her staff below her mostly laid off or furloughed. They are getting paid the same to do nothing while she kills herself for no extra pay.

We are considering voluntary furlough through her company this week just due to the toll of doing this for a few months will do to her body/mind as we try to start a family.

New Washington model has the number of deaths down pretty significantly and peaking sooner than originally projected (Texas was May 6th, now April 19th)

oldarmy1 said:

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Sold 50% of SPY at the opening of trading $258.20

Sold 25% of DIS at $98.25

Sold 50% of AAPL $252

Shorted 50% MSFT $160 against $157 calls to lock in net free holding on remaining calls.


Ah the early birds DO get the worms!

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No more confidence in Model T?

Houston chronicle's front page says the data is understated. Such a trash paper

Quote:

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"One could imagine a world in the next few months where everyone is tested and all but the immune compromised go back to a socially distanced but more normal life. We wear bracelets or carry a phone certificate which indicate our status, and track infections where they emerge," Ackman tweeted.

Ackman last month warned "hell is coming" in a CNBC interview that coincided with a big drop in the stock market

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Oa, what are your predictions for timelines?

Ok boys, Friday I got a bloody nose but today it's time
To punch back!

This is literally the worst unemployment crisis in US history and it astounds me that people are so chipper when corona is going to keep us closed until May. Meaning many Americans will be TWO months behind on rent, mortgage, debt payments.

And we are expecting the ability to just jump back to the same level of consumer spending to sustain life as before?

The biggest difference between now and Sept. 11 is that 9/11 didn't happen ~11 years into a record Bull Run market.

Market isn't rational and is reacting to what might be good news. Lots of people have an interest in keeping the market up.

It is, by far, the worst 2 weeks of unemployment data ever. Higher by around 900%.

The only thing holding the market up is the Fed's printer press, and a hefty helping of socialism.

Another red day for LK