moses1084ever said:

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White house is putting pressure to get Avigan approved. I brought up Fuji films / avigan up a few weeks ago:

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/31/white-house-pressures-fda-japanese-drug-157587

I've had a small position since mentioning.

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This is huge. Money be damned, Avigan will save lives

La Bamba said:

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So for those planning on shorting a potential low re-test, how are you playing this? I saw OA recommend 10-14 day 240-235 puts. How are others looking at it?

I sold my SPY position today at 260. Patient to let the trade to the downside develop (I.e. can wait if we retest 263 or even break thru it).

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I bought $220 SPY puts for 4/24 around 3/26. Currently down but diamond hands is helping me stay in the trade. I think I just believe too much bad news coming with layoffs and missed rent collections and the market moving into a bull trap to not hold.

gougler08 said:

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Any reason why you wouldn't invest in VOO instead of SPY? Seems that the fees are slightly lower on VOO and there may be a slight difference on dividends (but not much)?

Also, think I'm going to be taking some of that out if we get to the 263 line again and then the rest will come out when we test the model T at 280. Will look for re-entry between 220 and 230 whenever we retest the bottom

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Liquidity is higher in the SPY vs the VOO. No big difference but SPY is more popular by a long **** so it's preferred

Let me ask the forum a question:

-Say I am sitting on $30K cash as an emergency fund/stockpile.
-Say you have a car note left for $15K with an 8% interest rate.

Would you pay off the car note and use the payment to invest in a Dollar cost averaging method or keep the cash and the note? I can service either way but would love to pay off the car.

What Irish said. Now isn't the time to get rid of an emergency fund. I know two people with stable white-collar $100K+ careers that just got laid off and another that just took a 40% pay cut. This all happened in the last 48 hours.

moses1084ever said:

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White house is putting pressure to get Avigan approved. I brought up Fuji films / avigan up a few weeks ago:

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/31/white-house-pressures-fda-japanese-drug-157587

I've had a small position since mentioning.

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What a loaded ****ing article. HCQ is unproven? I know it hasn't done the standard 9-month blind study, but it has been successful in studies from, South Korea, India, France, Germany, and now the US. A miracle drug it is not, but I haven't seen one study that didn't display some kind of improvement for patients.

Dow futures 400 down. I'm guessing circuit breaker

Down 1.65% right now. Long long way to go before circuit breaker.

Sold out last week

Quote:

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What a loaded ****ing article. HCQ is unproven? I know it hasn't done the standard 9-month blind study, but it has been successful in studies from, South Korea, India, France, Germany, and now the US. A miracle drug it is not, but I haven't seen one study that didn't display some kind of improvement for patients.

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Didn't read that part. Only included the link for the mention about the white house & avigan.

Down approx 3% @ 0400.

The one stock I need down is somehow up (RDSA)

So we are expecting to retest lows now due to futures breaking well below support? Or is there a chance we close the AH gap and end the session above support?

@2475 now

10YR UST is at 61bps. Hold on to your butts.

IrishTxAggie said:

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Refinance the remainder of the car note down to 3 (or less maybe) something at your local credit union

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A million times this. Refinance and make lower monthly payments. Wonderful to hear you have savings/cash on hand. Sadly, that will be more and more needed most likely. Wait to reinvest in market or use it for savings in case of bad times.

I had $10k in payments and $20k in cash savings back in 2008. If I had put $10k in Ford stock instead of paying off my truck earlier, I would have been up 10 fold in a year or two.

I just started trading last month and current have shares in CVX, DIS, ERI, JPM, XOM. Thoughts on these stocks in the next few weeks? Also, how do y'all feel about a chain restaurant with delivery like Dominos, Pappa Johns, etc. ?

This thread is mostly tech analysis. Based on AH trading we have broken key support level and look to head lower in coming days, possibly setting new lows in couple weeks.

BUT, if futures come back closer to yesterday's close, perhaps that is a signal of strength and a 50% retracement bull trap (Model T) is still a possibility...

All the bad news is already priced in ......

Agree, I think 3/1 was the bull trap. It was quick, but so was this crash. An aggressive U shaped recovery might be on the horizon.

are there certain indicators that you look at to determine that ?

I am going to guess we bounce off of 240 and don't pull all the way back to 220.

It certainly is not. >20% unemployment is not priced, nor are deep recessive GDP numbers.

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3557173-whiting-petroleum-files-for-chapter-11?utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha&mail_subject=wll-whiting-petroleum-files-for-chapter-11&utm_campaign=rta-stock-news&utm_content=link-1

Quote:

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Whiting Petroleum files for Chapter 11
Apr. 1, 2020 8:39 AM ET|About: Whiting Petroleum Corporation (WLL)|By: Carl Surran, SA News Editor [url=https://seekingalpha.com/news/3557173-whiting-petroleum-files-for-chapter-11?utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha&mail_subject=wll-whiting-petroleum-files-for-chapter-11&utm_campaign=rta-stock-news&utm_content=link-1#][/url]

Whiting Petroleum (NYSE:WLL) says it filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of Texas; shares are halted.

The company says it has more than $585M of cash on its balance sheet and will continue to operate its business.

Whiting also says it reached an agreement in principle with certain noteholders that contemplates a comprehensive restructuring that will significantly reduce debt and establish a more sustainable capital structure.

Under the restructuring plan, Whiting's existing equity holders would receive 3% of the new equity of the reorganized company.

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claym711 said:

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It certainly is not. >20% unemployment is not priced, nor are deep recessive GDP numbers.

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That's why I had the Stop emoji

I said it a couple of weeks ago on here we didn't have a cure, final death toll, unemployment numbers, gdp numbers, bankruptcies etc.

Standing by for the Model Yugo
Next big bite of VTI around Dow 18,150 or so.....

Sarcasm meter is non functional

I'm not having a good go of it lately. Had mostly puts last week not expecting every day to be green and some of those extended to 4/3 as well. With the level/green days to start the week, I got rid of them. Kept thinking it was better to eat the losses than to let them end up even lower as the board always recommends and I've also learned from experience. Naturally, the day after I dump them the market finally turns back and now I'm stuck with a couple of calls.

My SPY 4/3 $240P and DIS 4/3 $93P both look like they would have at least been break even as of now.

Really hoping my IWM 4/3 $112P can get a great return today.

Harkrider 93 said:

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I am starting to wonder how we retest lows when everyone and their dog knows we will retest the lows. Rarely is everyone correct.

Couple that with the amount of money the government is throwing at this in a much better manner than 2008. I get that it is possible the market hasn't priced the massive recession #s coming, but you could argue that they have. Maybe the market has priced into the massive recession and money from the government.

I still think we retest lows because all fundamental and technical people think we will.

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The Friday non-farm payroll number and market reaction will be a great indicator if we have put in a bottom and/or we retest that number. imo

My TLRA calls are now RUBI calls. Can't do anything with them though. Must still be in the process of completely changing them over.

Quick question. I had bought some SPY Puts the other day. Looking to take the small profit and get out, but when I got to close the order, it says max loss is infinite. I don't feel like I have seen it say this before so am scared to submit. I am using TD

Harkrider 93 said:

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I am starting to wonder how we retest lows when everyone and their dog knows we will retest the lows. Rarely is everyone correct.

Couple that with the amount of money the government is throwing at this in a much better manner than 2008. I get that it is possible the market hasn't priced the massive recession #s coming, but you could argue that they have. Maybe the market has priced into the massive recession and money from the government.

I still think we retest lows because all fundamental and technical people think we will.

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I think a lot of it too will be psychological. Everyone knows the numbers will be bad but not quite sure how bad. The media will run with it and people will get beat down after hearing it over and over. I go back to 9/11 and with everything shut down this is so different now.