Risk on vote today. Congressmen flying in will have temp taken at capitol....though I'm sure most or all have already been tested.

thirdcoast said:

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Enron?

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Touche

Early morning pessimism, afternoon optimism?

deadbq03 said:

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gougler08 said:

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Speaking of 401k...I work for an O&G major and our stock is the only one that we can directly invest our 401k in to. If we retest bottoms, think that would be a good play for my 401k (or at least a portion of it)? Oil will be down a while but I don't see a major folding up in bankruptcy...

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I don't like to double-down on stupid, so to speak. And by that I mean that since I work for an O&G company, I have a salary and various other benefits that are tied to that struggling industry. If it rebounds, great - my job is secure. There are plenty of other opportunities out there for my investments... Last thing I want is to lose my job AND lose a crap ton of investments because I doubled down in the industry. So I avoid O&G stocks like the plague.

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Good point sir...that will talk me out of doing something dumb!

I do think going money market when we hit the Model T point is a good idea though

claym711 said:

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PE & PEG for the broad market disagree with that, heavily.

Something no one is thinking about. From first neg GDP print in 08, market dropped around -40%. That happens here we will drop to the tops of the 00 and 08 bubbles, which would also be a very similar total % correction as 00 and 08. That would be around 1550.

Every retail trader and investor I know are thinking bottom is near in and it's time to start buying Big on the next dip. No one is prepared for a recessionary move.

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Not sure what PE & PEG are nor what they disagree with. Likely the Applied Capital folks.

From what I gather, they are analyzing fundamentals (real numbers) to try and value the market.

You are using past dip percentages (more technical) to come up with where you think this leads.

I can see a scenario that we drop as much as 2008, but for me, we would have to expect a large percentage of bankruptcies. I read that a bond trading firm calculated the market was predicting 25-30% bankruptcies in 2008.
If they were right, and we expect that now, I can see this dropping past the previous low.

However, 2008 was a financial disaster. We are better financially now than then. We are still a long ways from great. For me, it is hard to see the same amount of bankruptcies.

Also, I am hearing from many traders and retail folks that this isn't like 2008, so using that as a guide may not work. They think it is more of a mash up of 1987, 2000, and 2008.

Given the above, I can't imagine we don't, at the very least, retest the lows.

Model T failure?

Feel like I'm losing my stomach from falling right now. When did I get on the Superman exactly?

thirdcoast said:

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Model T failure?

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still not over, but have no clue how this works except for this

this bear market has followed one rule consistently...

no rule is working

I really appreciate your point of view and please keep responding.

I am a fundamental analysis guy. I am trying to find a value and then wait till traders tell me to buy it.

I look at things like people were replacing cars about every 2.5 yrs in 2007 as a sign that we are overvalued (at least cars). I then used the replacement of once every 10 yrs in 2008 as a signal that we have value. If I would have listened to traders back then, maybe I would have waited till at least Nov 2008 to buy.

Aggietaco said:

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$ZM up good after everyone realized which stock they should be buying.

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Waiting on that model T. Been playing ZM all week. For 3 days it was a sure thing to go from 140 to 145, 145 to 140, 140 to 145, etc. Now it's up to 153 so I"ve got a small play on the 145p for today.

SPY hanging in there so far actually

gougler08 said:

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SPY hanging in there so far actually

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I think it'll last all day. ~265 into close, and then sell off. Bear market grind starts next week to 205.

that's my guess.

Prognightmare said:

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WTF is this? Why?

So let's analyze something here:

yesterday at 2:50 CST, huge money came in to boost the SPY from ~258 - 261. There was a selloff today and now it's recovering. Do you think that big money that came back in isn't going to want higher than 261?

No idea if we visit 1550, just pointing out that virtually no one is thinking about that, and it aligns with past few bear markets - unrelated thoughts to the PE/PEG comments

Agree with you and the group you quoted that market prices won't stay here for 5 years.

Also, your comment on nov 2008 - my closest analogies to the underlying data i use currently are oct/nov 08. Going to be a lot of range to trade and we find an eventual bottom.

McInnis 03 said:

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Prognightmare said:

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WTF is this? Why?

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Look at the chart and don't underestimate the reversal. Also, short float is 62 %. LMAO.

New CEO at LADR

La Bamba said:

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McInnis 03 said:

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Prognightmare said:

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WTF is this? Why?

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Look at the chart and don't underestimate the reversal. Also, short float is 62 %. LMAO.

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Lots of people staying home and smoking weed during these times

And looks like that dead cat bounced pretty good mostly across the board.

WestTexAg12 said:

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La Bamba said:

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McInnis 03 said:

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Prognightmare said:

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WTF is this? Why?

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Look at the chart and don't underestimate the reversal. Also, short float is 62 %. LMAO.

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Lots of people staying home and smoking weed during these times

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Maybe so, but that much momentum in 5 days? lol That's a hell of a high.

McInnis 03 said:

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Aggietaco said:

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$ZM up good after everyone realized which stock they should be buying.

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Waiting on that model T. Been playing ZM all week. For 3 days it was a sure thing to go from 140 to 145, 145 to 140, 140 to 145, etc. Now it's up to 153 so I"ve got a small play on the 145p for today.

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I'm not learned enough to deal with options, so I've only been trading equities. I had a sell order for 160, hoping it would hit off the bat this morning, but revised to 153 after the first bit of resistance. I think it follows the rest of the market and ends close to open.

Prognightmare said:

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got a TLDW summary for us?

It's only on their "Pro" subscriber portion of the the site currently. It'll be available later.

Prognightmare said:

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It's only on their "Pro" subscriber portion of the the site currently. It'll be available later.

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Wait...you're not a pro?? Why do I pay attention to what you say then?

thirdcoast said:

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Model T failure?

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I don't know that it is or isn't. From what I gathered, it doesn't have to reach the full 50% retracement. I believe it can be 'triggered at some amount/percent below that threshold.

I need someone that knows more to confirm and elaborate on it though if it's true.