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thirdcoast
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In reply to jh0400 • 4:19p, 3/21/20
AG
jh0400 said:
No way BA liquidates. They have issues, but there is still a viable business within their current asset base. They either get a bailout or file Ch 11.


They will get a bailout AND file for Ch 11, just like GM in 2009.

I agree Boeing is way too important not to restructure and continue making airplanes. Dems are demanding BA keep all employees as part of the deal and other provisions that hamstring BA into taking advantage of US bankruptcy laws as the only viable option. I doubt Airlines are going to buy planes with the bailout money they get, BUT if they do not cancel orders and add new orders, then BA will not need to Ch 11. Niki Haley saw writing on wall.

But there is already a BA thread, so I won't clog this awesome thread anymore. Thanks again for all the seasoned traders that post daily!
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AggiePeeps06
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4:24p, 3/21/20
AG
I'm just not sure yet that real estate will take that big of a hit. Not with the gov stepping up the way they are. I mean if this thing keeps everyone sheltered for 3 months then everything is going to go bust. But if it's just 30 days, I don't think it will hurt hard assets that much just because how much the gov is pumping into the markets and how much forbearance banks are extending
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iluvpoker
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In reply to FJB • 4:50p, 3/21/20
Unnamed Source said:
When do we expect inflation to hit from all the dollars hitting the market? My guess is month 2 of the "recovery".


I see way too much slack in the world economy to generate inflation this year. I'll say that it will take 2 to 3 years before the govt reports inflation above 2.5%.
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claym711
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5:02p, 3/21/20
AG
Helicopter money going out while supply drops...

And there's gonna be some big unemployment numbers, IMO
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iluvpoker
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In reply to AggiePeeps06 • 5:02p, 3/21/20
AggiePeeps06 said:
I'm just not sure yet that real estate will take that big of a hit. Not with the gov stepping up the way they are. I mean if this thing keeps everyone sheltered for 3 months then everything is going to go bust. But if it's just 30 days, I don't think it will hurt hard assets that much just because how much the gov is pumping into the markets and how much forbearance banks are extending


What people don't seem to realize is how highly leveraged our economy was and still is. Every asset class is overvalued due to this excessive use of leverage. Residential real estate won't drop 30% nationwide like stocks have. And some areas which have not seen prices shoot up dramatically won't see too much downward pressure. But areas where prices have spiked the last 3 years will drop 10%, maybe more in my opinion.

Look at areas where they built subdivisions designed to be rental neighborhoods. Look for large multi family projects under construction or recently completed.

Commercial real estate will depend on the business survival rate. This area is much harder to predict because no one knows the financial strength of all the small and medium size businesses and how badly their owners want to stay in business.
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AggiePeeps06
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5:08p, 3/21/20
AG
I agree. Will depend on how hard White collar industries get hit ultimately.

On another note, I sure wish I hadn't sold my 3/31 SPY puts on Friday...
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UpstateAg
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5:14p, 3/21/20
AG
Government needs to send those checks out. Make them taxable income later on (or if this is happening still, don't), but give some relief. That's the job of a government, to provide in times of extreme black swans. And the first sign of vaccine/treatment, it's a moon shot with people having money to spend. That's how trump can win these unemployed voters for November, save the economy, and get a rally to end all rallies in Q3.
I'll just put mine in the market.
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GigEmRangers75455
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5:32p, 3/21/20
Anyone here with any knowledge on the Zest/Walmart lawsuit that's set to go to trial June 1? Cheap stock looking at potential stock swap with WMT...

https://www.supermarketnews.com/retail-financial/walmart-hit-2-billion-complaint-zest-labs
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the last of the bohemians
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5:38p, 3/21/20
So when do we get the counter trend 2 week bear market rally?
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PPAag06
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In reply to GigEmRangers75455 • 5:40p, 3/21/20
AG
Yes, i have a pretty decent sized holding. There is a lot of public info if you look hard enough. At this point I'm guessing there is a 75% chance of a settlement before trial. Worth a few bucks imo.
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the last of the bohemians
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5:45p, 3/21/20
Even if chloroquine was approved tomorrow, California and NY would make up reasons to stay closed longer than needed.
But I do think when that announcement comes, we get a rip up like we have never seen before.
To then be followed by typical 12 to 18 months bear market.
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Hendrix
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5:45p, 3/21/20
AG
BA will be bailed out. No question.
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Aggie09Derek
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In reply to the last of the bohemians • 5:49p, 3/21/20
AG
the last of the bohemians said:
Even if chloroquine was approved tomorrow, California and NY would make up reasons to stay closed longer than needed.
But I do think when that announcement comes, we get a rip up like we have never seen before.
To then be followed by typical 12 to 18 months bear market.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

NY needs to be closed down for a good bit. Getting extremely bad there right now.
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the last of the bohemians
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6:13p, 3/21/20
Yeah they should have followed the approach by other ultra dense cities (Hong Kong, Tokyo, Seoul). It was destined to be our worst affected city because of its unique density not found anywhere else in America.
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ProgN
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In reply to the last of the bohemians • 6:53p, 3/21/20
the last of the bohemians said:
Yeah they should have followed the approach by other ultra dense cities (Hong Kong, Tokyo, Seoul). It was destined to be our worst affected city because of its unique density not found anywhere else in America.
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ProgN
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8:33p, 3/21/20
https://www.investors.com/research/disney-stock-buy-now/?src=A00220&yptr=yahoo

Quote:
Disney+ On Fire, But ...
Coronavirus is taking its toll on Disney's parks, cruises and movie businesses. But the November debut of Disney+ is proving propitious, as people spend more time at home. While the media giant has halted all live-action film production for now, it plans to expand Disney+ to the U.K., Germany, France, Italy and Spain on March 24.

But Covid-19 is now affecting its streaming service too. Disney+ had been slated to launch March 29 in India, the world's second most populous country. Service was set to start at the same time as the Twenty20 cricket tournament, which has been postponed until April 15 amid coronavirus concerns.

"Given the delay of the season, we have made the decision to briefly pause the rollout of Disney+ and will announce a new revised premiere date for the service soon," Disney said in a statement.

Wells Fargo analyst Steven Cahall said Feb. 19 he expects Disney+ to draw 6 million subscribers in India this year. He estimates chief rival Netflix (NFLX) currently serves 4 million in the world's second-most-populous country.

However, Cahall thinks Disney+ will charge less than Netflix, for average revenue per user (ARPU) of $2-$3 per month vs. Netflix's $7.50. He maintained an overweight rating and 180 price target on Disney stock.

After the close Feb. 4, Disney reported 26.5 million paid subscribers by the end of fiscal Q1 and 28.6 million as of Feb. 3. That topped the company's highest expectations, Iger said on the earnings conference call. He said 50% of the subscribers came from disneyplus.com, where the company doesn't share revenue with others.
The rollout of Disney+ in these new markets will be huge.

Disclaimer: I trade this stock/options and I'm not married to it but I like this insurance policy with it at these levels.
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ranchag04
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In reply to claym711 • 8:46p, 3/21/20
AG
claym711 said:
Helicopter money going out while supply drops...

And there's gonna be some big unemployment numbers, IMO


People like you revel in times like these and it is hard for me to stomach but I see you for who you are. Bottom feeder.
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Chef Elko
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In reply to ranchag04 • 8:57p, 3/21/20
AG
Lol. Finally someone says something!
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ranchag04
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In reply to Chef Elko • 9:04p, 3/21/20
AG
Danwell Home said:
Lol. Finally someone says something!


He's despicable....go back and look...called Armageddon several times before all time highs...then today he says the virus would reappear in the fall...now he's an epidemiologist...what a disgrace.
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Agswinning
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9:07p, 3/21/20
Friend who is an ER doc in ATL says they aren't using any of the aforementioned meds but just treating as they can.
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claym711
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In reply to ranchag04 • 9:33p, 3/21/20
AG
ranchag04 said:
claym711 said:
Helicopter money going out while supply drops...

And there's gonna be some big unemployment numbers, IMO


People like you revel in times like these and it is hard for me to stomach but I see you for who you are. Bottom feeder.


You're losing money and upset, understandable. If you don't like my projections, certainly nothing requiring you to follow them.

But, your post is trash. Complete trash.
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ranchag04
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In reply to claym711 • 9:37p, 3/21/20
AG
claym711 said:
ranchag04 said:
claym711 said:
Helicopter money going out while supply drops...

And there's gonna be some big unemployment numbers, IMO


People like you revel in times like these and it is hard for me to stomach but I see you for who you are. Bottom feeder.


You're losing money and upset, understandable. If you don't like my projections, certainly nothing requiring you to follow them.

But, your post is trash. Complete trash.


No sir you don't know what you are doing and I am calling you out on it...you have no clue.
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claym711
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In reply to ranchag04 • 9:39p, 3/21/20
AG
ranchag04 said:
claym711 said:
ranchag04 said:
claym711 said:
Helicopter money going out while supply drops...

And there's gonna be some big unemployment numbers, IMO


People like you revel in times like these and it is hard for me to stomach but I see you for who you are. Bottom feeder.


You're losing money and upset, understandable. If you don't like my projections, certainly nothing requiring you to follow them.

But, your post is trash. Complete trash.


No sir you don't know what you are doing and I am calling you out on it...you have no clue.


Still bitter about the Biden bounce idea, and recession. No worries bud.
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ranchag04
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In reply to claym711 • 9:40p, 3/21/20
AG
claym711 said:
ranchag04 said:
claym711 said:
ranchag04 said:
claym711 said:
Helicopter money going out while supply drops...

And there's gonna be some big unemployment numbers, IMO


People like you revel in times like these and it is hard for me to stomach but I see you for who you are. Bottom feeder.


You're losing money and upset, understandable. If you don't like my projections, certainly nothing requiring you to follow them.

But, your post is trash. Complete trash.


No sir you don't know what you are doing and I am calling you out on it...you have no clue.


Still bitter about the Biden bounce idea, and recession. No worries bud.


Check your history it's nothing to brag about
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ranchag04
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9:42p, 3/21/20
AG
I will bookmark your post earlier before you edit it and in the fall we will revisit when the virus is recking havoc
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claym711
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In reply to ranchag04 • 9:44p, 3/21/20
AG
Better use of your time would prob be studying up on trading in a bear market.
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ranchag04
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In reply to claym711 • 9:45p, 3/21/20
AG
claym711 said:
Better use of your time would prob be studying up on trading in a bear market.


Not taking advice from you...too many mistakes
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claym711
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In reply to ranchag04 • 9:46p, 3/21/20
AG
Well thanks for the entertainment tonight. Good luck
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ranchag04
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In reply to claym711 • 9:50p, 3/21/20
AG
claym711 said:
Well thanks for the entertainment tonight. Good luck


We will see.
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khaos288
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9:53p, 3/21/20
AG
Another successful Texags hookup
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Aggie09Derek
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In reply to khaos288 • 9:55p, 3/21/20
AG
khaos288 said:
Another successful Texags hookup
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10:22p, 3/21/20
moses1084ever
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In reply to CSTXAg92 • 12:05a, 3/22/20
AG
Quote:
Favipiravir, also known as T-705, Avigan, or favilavir is an antiviral drug being developed by Toyama Chemical of Japan with activity against many RNA viruses. Like certain other experimental antiviral drugs, it is a pyrazinecarboxamide derivative.

Toyama Chemical is owned by Fujifilms which is publicly traded. I mentioned it in the thread earlier this week. I have a position in FUJIF. Friday was a public holiday in Japan, it will be interesting to see how monday goes after the Indonesia news over the weekend. Indonesia's president, Jokowi, name dropped avigan on TV.
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rcannaday
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In reply to Hendrix • 12:42a, 3/22/20
AG
Beware and equity cramdown on $BA
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UpstateAg
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In reply to ranchag04 • 6:24a, 3/22/20
AG
This isn't the corona forum, but thought I'd just say that many infectious disease doctors say this is coming back in the fall. Talked with two this week as we looked at scheduling a fall heavy calendar for work.
Of course, we all hope they're wrong.
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