Prognightmare said:

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Cuomo and NJ governor set to make major announcements later on this morning.

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Didn't Cuomo already kinda do a shelter in place for New York? I guess I don't find it news if he just mirrors what California does at this point (but I'm sure it will be blown out of proportion)

McInnis 03 said:

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moses1084ever said:

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Indonesia is moving forward with Chloroquine and Avigan for Covid:

https://indonesiaexpat.biz/featured/jokowi-orders-coronavirus-medicine/

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Avigan is da real mvp

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Favipiravir, also known as T-705, Avigan, or favilavir is an antiviral drug being developed by Toyama Chemical of Japan with activity against many RNA viruses. Like certain other experimental antiviral drugs, it is a pyrazinecarboxamide derivative.

https://g.co/kgs/pzQb4s

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/18/japanese-flu-drug-clearly-effective-in-treating-coronavirus-says-china

gougler08 said:

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Prognightmare said:

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Cuomo and NJ governor set to make major announcements later on this morning.

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Didn't Cuomo already kinda do a shelter in place for New York? I guess I don't find it news if he just mirrors what California does at this point (but I'm sure it will be blown out of proportion)

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Guessing they will do shelter in place for NY and NJ

Looking for Texas cities to do the same in the next day or two.

I think the economy will be ****ed for at least a year. People are going to get used to consuming less and staying in. The reality of debt based living will hit. These govt checks are a measure to stave off disaster, that won't last into the fall. This virus will spike again next fall, sending people for cover and recessing consumption.

There isn't going to be a sustained rebound by Q3.

claym711 said:

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I think the economy will be ****ed for at least a year. People are going to get used to consuming less and staying in. The reality of debt based living will hit. These govt checks are a measure to stave off disaster, that won't last into the fall. This virus will spike again next fall, sending people for cover and recessing consumption.

There isn't going to be a sustained rebound by Q3.

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I don't disagree that we may not rebound by Q3 but I'm skeptical that the average Americans taste for debt changes dramatically. That takes a lot of disciple and delayed gratification.

Who in the restaurant world has relative strength given the no dine in bans? Who makes the majority of their profit on drive thru and carry out since those may remain open. Starbucks?

Boat Shoes said:

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Who in the restaurant world has relative strength given the no dine in bans? Who makes the majority of their profit on drive thru and carry out since those may remain open. Starbucks?

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mcd
Yum
Sbux

Prognightmare said:

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Goodness.

You don't think there is about to be global employment loss? Consumption will take a sustained hit if there is, which seems certain.

claym711 said:

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You don't think there is about to be global employment loss? Consumption will take a sustained hit if there is, which seems certain.

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not on any significant magnitude

Many people are still working, just working differently.

Goods still have to be purchased and moved.

There will be a dip, but mostly just a learning curve.

claym711 said:

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I think the economy will be ****ed for at least a year. People are going to get used to consuming less and staying in. The reality of debt based living will hit. These govt checks are a measure to stave off disaster, that won't last into the fall. This virus will spike again next fall, sending people for cover and recessing consumption.

There isn't going to be a sustained rebound by Q3.

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I agree with everything up to the rebound of the virus. It sounds like Regenron (sic) and some other companies are aiming to have FDA approval for the vaccine by mid-summer meaning they could have a reasonable production by October.

This thing likely will never go away completely though.

Ragoo said:

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claym711 said:

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You don't think there is about to be global employment loss? Consumption will take a sustained hit if there is, which seems certain.

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not on any significant magnitude

Many people are still working, just working differently.

Goods still have to be purchased and moved.

There will be a dip, but mostly just a learning curve.

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Independent restaurants and bars will be the one area that I don't expect we'll see a serious recovery. People in the service industry will be hurting for work. The big businesses (airlines, etc) will get bailed out so I'd guess those jobs will hopefully be impacted less.

Mtn_Guide said:

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claym711 said:

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I think the economy will be ****ed for at least a year. People are going to get used to consuming less and staying in. The reality of debt based living will hit. These govt checks are a measure to stave off disaster, that won't last into the fall. This virus will spike again next fall, sending people for cover and recessing consumption.

There isn't going to be a sustained rebound by Q3.

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I agree with everything up to the rebound of the virus. It sounds like Regenron (sic) and some other companies are aiming to have FDA approval for the vaccine by mid-summer meaning they could have a reasonable production by October.

This thing likely will never go away completely though.

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Antiviral approved for treatment? Maybe. A true vaccine with valid and reliably tested numbers can't possibly exist that soon. Part of the litmus test for a vaccine is effectiveness after 3 months, so if the vaccine came out today, it couldn't be vetted until middle of summer.

Unfortunately I think we are going to see unemployment numbers like we have never seen in history. The people impact will be much worse than the financial crisis...unless on April 1 Trump declares COVID solved and orders everyone back to normal life.

About to be some good deals on real estate

Bocephus said:

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About to be some good deals on real estate

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Housing market? Commercial? Raw land?

Boat Shoes said:

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Bocephus said:

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About to be some good deals on real estate

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Housing market? Commercial? Raw land?

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My guess is all of the above... I'm in the process of buying a commercial property that was agreed on in January and I'm really thinking about backing out. Rates and prices are about to drop significantly. I was putting 100k down which could be used a lot better in what's coming ahead than it would have been in January...

Boat Shoes said:

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Bocephus said:

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About to be some good deals on real estate

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Housing market? Commercial? Raw land?

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All of the above

Bocephus said:

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Boat Shoes said:

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Bocephus said:

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About to be some good deals on real estate

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Housing market? Commercial? Raw land?

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All of the above

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My in-laws house in Katy hit the market two days ago. Hopefully doesn't hurt them too bad. They priced to sell though.

If anyone looking for a nice house in Falcon Point right on the course shoot me a PM and can send you the house.

My parents just listed in new braunfels.

In other news, some jackass stole my CC info and bought 4 drive belts on 3 orders from 2 different websites....

1 of the orders (2 of the belts) just showed up at my house, the other I was able to get the company to return to sender on, and the 4th belt made it to him in Mckinney.

What dumb ass steals a CC, orders parts online, then ships to the guys house he stole the CC from?

Aggie_2463 said:

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In other news, some jackass stole my CC info and bought 4 drive belts on 3 orders from 2 different websites....

1 of the orders (2 of the belts) just showed up at my house, the other I was able to get the company to return to sender on, and the 4th belt made it to him in Mckinney.

What dumb ass steals a CC, orders parts online, then ships to the guys house he stole the CC from?

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He probably hoards TP too

Bocephus said:

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Aggie_2463 said:

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In other news, some jackass stole my CC info and bought 4 drive belts on 3 orders from 2 different websites....

1 of the orders (2 of the belts) just showed up at my house, the other I was able to get the company to return to sender on, and the 4th belt made it to him in Mckinney.

What dumb ass steals a CC, orders parts online, then ships to the guys house he stole the CC from?

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He probably hoards TP too

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The old lady wants me to get his address he shipped the other two packages to so she can send him a months supply of ****ty diapers, but I don't feel like calling them back a third time

When do we expect inflation to hit from all the dollars hitting the market? My guess is month 2 of the "recovery".

Chuck Schumer is already coining the term "wealthy shareholders" in conversation around bailout distribution. He is leading Dem negotiation on largest bailout in US history and all focus is on "employment insurance" and healthcare. He is pushing for 4-6 months unemployment checks equal to salary (I'm sure there is an income cap, but no idea).

Lots of Ch 11s on horizon, simply not enough money to go around. BA is going to be the Lehman of 2020.

No way BA liquidates. They have issues, but there is still a viable business within their current asset base. They either get a bailout or file Ch 11.

Boeing is too strategically important. They will be too important to fail and will be bailed out.

government needs to quit picking winners & losers...

everyone is affected...

give everyone a $$ check, and let people decide where to spend it.


highly leveraged or unionized businesses need to fail to reset the debt and renegotiate bad contracts... like stewardess unions... bailing out industries like the cruise industry would be idiotic

so many companies that have leveraged up so much that they deserve to fail... let companies that were smart with the assets pick up the pieces

Best guess at how that affects shareholders?