AgOutsideAustin said:

---

M.C. Swag said:

---

I don't think we've reached a bottom.

---

Not even close.

No total death count.
No cure.
No unemployment numbers.
No negative gdp numbers.
No in the gutter earnings reports.
No bailout numbers yet.
No end to the oil fight yet.

---

I agree.

The only thing keeping me guessing is that the market usually moves up before all the bad news is done.

I did see a bulls vs bear chart yesterday. The bears were at 32%. In 2008/09, they were at 50%. 32% was still a bottom for some previous recessions and 19-20% dips.

Futures melting away.

claym711 said:

---

I have a custom macro indicator that I use to time rebalancing in my IRA. It's what I used to exit in January.

It flipped green today which tells me we are beginning a bottoming process - could take months.

What's I find odd is that we haven't even come close to the values that this indicator touched in 2008. 2008 went 200% lower at the peak low in this indicator in oct 2008, and price found an eventual low in March 2009.

What that tells me is that IRAs on this dip have not been moved to cash - though I have not yet pulled up fund outflows.

---

I am not a bright person on trading or any other things.

Are you saying that your indicator is saying to buy, but that you don't trust it based on other data?

I am mad at myself for missing this stock. I doubt it is too late, but wanted your opinion when you would buy, if at all.

WELL - is a health care facility REIT.

I am mad that I didn't think of it when everyone was talking about REITs.

This volatility is insane. Every high day is fomo that you missed the rally train, and every down day is doom and gloom circuit (breaker) city.

khaos288 said:

---

This volatility is insane. Every high day is fomo that you missed the rally train, and every down day is doom and gloom circuit (breaker) city.

---

This. I'm to the point now where I just want to walk away from everything and reassess in a month

Harkrider 93 said:

---

I am mad at myself for missing this stock. I doubt it is too late, but wanted your opinion when you would buy, if at all.

WELL - is a health care facility REIT.

I am mad that I didn't think of it when everyone was talking about REITs.

---

It's at all time low levels now. Would be a great pick up. I had it and sold it when it was between 90-93 or so. Glad I sold it then.

REITs .. while I haven't sold a lot of my position Will be getting hit hard, lots of force mejur discussions on going as people are no longer in the office, and business completely interrupted with lock downs.

rcannaday said:

---

REITs .. while I haven't sold a lot of my position Will be getting hit hard, lots of force mejur discussions on going as people are no longer in the office, and business completely interrupted with lock downs.

---

which is why WELL is interesting to me - they have health care properties - they never should have dropped with the rest of the REITs, at least for the same reasons.

However, it was up over 25% yesterday and futures had it up at 20%. Even at 50, it is a likely 50% return.

I am always scared of things like this stock. Looks great based on logic, but how can so many be missing it?

Textile orders are down up to 37% in Honduras. Buy a SFIX $10 Put out to mid April on any further pop IMO.

Harkrider 93 said:

---

I am mad at myself for missing this stock. I doubt it is too late, but wanted your opinion when you would buy, if at all.

WELL - is a health care facility REIT.

I am mad that I didn't think of it when everyone was talking about REITs.

---

It flashed to $24! Wow

I'd buy a $30 Put out a month and see if any form of retest comes. If it comes under $30 and you go in the money you could buy shares against the Put for no risk or close out the Put and use some profits to buy a $40 call as far out as feasible.

TNXP

I don't like pot stocks but done here do

Harkrider 93 said:

---

rcannaday said:

---

REITs .. while I haven't sold a lot of my position Will be getting hit hard, lots of force mejur discussions on going as people are no longer in the office, and business completely interrupted with lock downs.

---

which is why WELL is interesting to me - they have health care properties - they never should have dropped with the rest of the REITs, at least for the same reasons.

However, it was up over 25% yesterday and futures had it up at 20%. Even at 50, it is a likely 50% return.

I am always scared of things like this stock. Looks great based on logic, but how can so many be missing it?

---

Even healthcare REITs are at risk, which is why their prices are getting gouged. The issue is that many of them have a lot of assets tied up in nursing/retirement facilities. If this spreads and old people die they're gonna have fewer tenants. And even if that doesn't happen, I guarantee that people who were considering moving into a facility in the coming year are reconsidering.

Quote:

---

Meanwhile, shares of health-care REITs, normally considered a more defensive sector, have been cut in half this month, on average.

Sullivan points out that "senior housing in the form of nursing homes and assisted living is uniquely vulnerable to the coronavirus, as opposed to the economy." Senior citizens are especially vulnerable to the virus.
A big player in that sector is Ventas (VTR), which said this week that it has increased its borrowing as a precaution to increase liquidity "in light of current uncertainty resulting from" the coronavirus pandemic.

As a result of tapping that credit facility, Ventas said, it expects to have about $2.8 billion in cash on its balance sheet.
The company, however, is maintaining its dividend, saying on Thursday that would pay out 79.25 cents a quarter, in line with its previous payout.

---

Source:
https://www.barrons.com/articles/defensive-reit-stocks-offer-less-shelter-as-dividends-vanish-51584648351

oldarmy1 said:

---

Textile orders are down up to 37% in Honduras. Buy a SFIX $10 Put out to mid April on any further pop IMO.

---

Why $10? Why not a $15P on Apr 24th? If it's got a low IV ( & less open int) compared to both the 17th and 24th. similar 10s.

khaos288 said:

---

This volatility is insane. Every high day is time to buy puts because we haven't hit bottom, and every down day is the market has priced in future earnings and I think this was the bottom.

---

FIFY

I heard a mandatory sequester was coming. No mention of the national guard. We'll see.

CSTXAg92 said:

---

I heard a mandatory sequester was coming. No mention of the national guard. We'll see.

---

Source?

It's the Big Short Sequel but this time coronavirus was the spark

https://www.wsj.com/articles/financial-engineering-made-risky-loans-seem-safe-now-they-face-a-huge-test-11584702000

rcannaday said:

---

force mejur

---

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wsj.com/amp/articles/financial-engineering-made-risky-loans-seem-safe-now-they-face-a-huge-test-11584702000

To get around the paywall

All A&M said:

---

Everything has been hit, but REITs have been hit the hardest. Their revenue will be way down due to social distancing and tenants not able to pay. Even more damaging is that many of the small tenants will just close up shop. It will take a long time for REITs to recover.

---

The only upside I see in REITs is that with all the printing does inflation cause this play at the lows to be a great buy... feels like a great or partial inflation hedge in the future.

Thanks for posting, Keith. I've been pondering if there are ever any signs of a bottom based on people looking at historical data. No one is going to time it perfectly, but whatever it takes to better understand.

I will note that the 10 year just went from 1.15% to 1% so far today, so people are going back into them. Curious to see how this plays out. Even if it's an incorrect indicator, I'm going to watch it for when this happens 10-20 years from now again.

All A&M said:

---

Everything has been hit, but REITs have been hit the hardest. Their revenue will be way down due to social distancing and tenants not able to pay. Even more damaging is that many of the small tenants will just close up shop. It will take a long time for REITs to recover.

---

"The revenue will be down".

I've been reading a bunch about them, so please help me understand better...Lets say revenue goes to zero. I still have a hard time understanding why the price of the REIT would go down by 75% in some cases if the asset is still there. These things are there to shed 90% of revenue as dividends, but it's not like the asset goes away.

Please tell me if the WSB humor is not appreciated here.

wsb is so stupid it actually works, if those boys had the capital of a large hedge fund they would have still lost it all. WSB is the internet

Why are all the airlines skyrocketing except for Southwest?

Besides the fact that I own LUV? FML.

gougler08 said:

---

SPY is actually moving somewhat normally today...not sure what to do with this

---

would like to see buys back over 241

I'm guessing info is getting out about how the bailouts are going to work

Whitetail said:

---

All A&M said:

---

Everything has been hit, but REITs have been hit the hardest. Their revenue will be way down due to social distancing and tenants not able to pay. Even more damaging is that many of the small tenants will just close up shop. It will take a long time for REITs to recover.

---

"The revenue will be down".

I've been reading a bunch about them, so please help me understand better...Lets say revenue goes to zero. I still have a hard time understanding why the price of the REIT would go down by 75% in some cases if the asset is still there. These things are there to shed 90% of revenue as dividends, but it's not like the asset goes away.

---

They are required to distribute 90% of their taxable income, not their revenue. If the revenue falls enough, income (profit) could go to a loss and they are in risk of not being able to service the debt on their properties. The asset is there but the banks/lenders have a lien on it.