DISCLAIMER: I'm just getting started and am trying to figure out some basic logic behind folks' buy/sell logic.

What are people's thoughts on MTN? Vail just closed all of their resorts for the season and rescinded all guidance for the year. Down big at 160, off the past 6M where they've consistently been in the 235-240 range. They are issuing new guidance in the morning. In that case, would it typically make sense to buy right before or right after?

My gut makes me think buying before makes sense; they own enough assets that are bringing in cash year round, with recent acquisitions and big investments to make their properties cash flow positive in non-skiing months. This could definitely be me being too close to a stock; I love skiing and follow all the acquisition and upgrade news in the industry. It feels like a bargain, but when it comes to investing, I'm basically still on the placenta.

Anyone still in NIO, they report tomorrow AM. I'm not sure earnings are even a binary event right now though........

Boat Shoes said:

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Aggies1322 said:

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Alright Texags.. when is the O&G market going to start climbing again? I bought GASL for $0.12. I'd like to see it get back up to $10 like in January.

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I guess I dont understand how this works. This cant go lower than zero, right? Nat gas may actually bounce as oil rigs go down and associated gas comes off the market. What's in this ETF?

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Zacks has it listed out:

https://www.zacks.com/funds/etf/GASL/holding

Thank you for the sanity check. That felt like the case, but I still got the itch to buy this afternoon. I'll hold off.

Every knee shall bow and every tongue shall confess

I have some $5 2021 Leaps

badharambe said:

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badharambe said:

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No idea if we are in "98" or "00" tho.

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Based on today's low (great execution off 237 target), and if this is 1998 case, I expect the next move to be a face ripping rally with a 200 day test.

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^^ looking at this time line, we have fallen to our *potential* 237 spy bottom in 21 days. This is half the time it took for the 1998 case to occur, this time factor is interesting.

regardless, the market has lulled investors into getting puts at EOD because it will gap down tomorrow and sell off. The market has changed imo. 237 has held twice so far, I think its time to move up quickly - the Fed and government are behind us, they wont even let $BA fail.

Yep, I'm in NIO still. I'm holding long and I have a 2021 call.

IrishTxAggie said:

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You're too close to the stock. All tourism companies are yanking their guidance and if they've only lost 1/3, there is a solid chance it's got some more bleeding to go.

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I held MTN calls through this last earnings figuring with ski season almost over, season pass sales in the rearview, and corona will be ancient history by next ski season (1&4q are always much higher than 2&3), but they missed, guided down a bit, and got pommelled, then wrecked. I can only imagine they are going to guide down further. Guessing they are going to report that they had to give a ton of spring break refunds starting with the corona cases at keystone and vail

I'm playing crwd earnings, hopefully today started the run up

Aggies1322 said:

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Boat Shoes said:

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Aggies1322 said:

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Alright Texags.. when is the O&G market going to start climbing again? I bought GASL for $0.12. I'd like to see it get back up to $10 like in January.

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I guess I dont understand how this works. This cant go lower than zero, right? Nat gas may actually bounce as oil rigs go down and associated gas comes off the market. What's in this ETF?

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Zacks has it listed out:

https://www.zacks.com/funds/etf/GASL/holding

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buy after they reverse split

chubbs07 said:

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Don't know if George1992 is reading/around currently, but I wanted to ask what the he/the group thought of TPL right now? It is well below 2-yr lows. Was thinking about adding it in to retirement account, especially at these levels.

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I thought I was a genius for adding yesterday at 395. My bonus deposits Friday (I hope!) and if TPL is sitting anywhere near these levels I'm buying more

NRD09 said:

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Aggies1322 said:

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Boat Shoes said:

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Aggies1322 said:

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Alright Texags.. when is the O&G market going to start climbing again? I bought GASL for $0.12. I'd like to see it get back up to $10 like in January.

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I guess I dont understand how this works. This cant go lower than zero, right? Nat gas may actually bounce as oil rigs go down and associated gas comes off the market. What's in this ETF?

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Zacks has it listed out:

https://www.zacks.com/funds/etf/GASL/holding

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buy after they reverse split

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What is the advantage of that?
Genuinely curious, new to the game.

NRD09 said:

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IrishTxAggie said:

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You're too close to the stock. All tourism companies are yanking their guidance and if they've only lost 1/3, there is a solid chance it's got some more bleeding to go.

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I held MTN calls through this last earnings figuring with ski season almost over, season pass sales in the rearview, and corona will be ancient history by next ski season (1&4q are always much higher than 2&3), but they missed, guided down a bit, and got pommelled, then wrecked. I can only imagine they are going to guide down further. Guessing they are going to report that they had to give a ton of spring break refunds starting with the corona cases at keystone and vail

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We're in a correction so earnings, good or bad, will result in a stock moving lower. For that reason, I expect a lot of companies will take advantage of this situation and guide estimates lower when they report earnings. this will allow them to blow past earnings in Q3-4 and pop at the end of the year. There's limited downside because the market is pricing in crappy earnings but they can position their companies for big Beats later on this year.

it was my snarky way of saying the charts don't look like it can go lower, but what they can do is reverse split 20:1 or whatever to keep from getting delisted, and they can continue to tank from there

NRD09 said:

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it was my snarky way of saying the charts don't look like it can go lower, but what they can do is reverse split 20:1 or whatever to keep from getting delisted, and they can continue to tank from there

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Oh darn.. so you dont have a positive outlook on it?

I have puts on swn right now so...no

Aggies1322 said:

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NRD09 said:

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it was my snarky way of saying the charts don't look like it can go lower, but what they can do is reverse split 20:1 or whatever to keep from getting delisted, and they can continue to tank from there

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Oh darn.. so you dont have a positive outlook on it?

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What he said is correct. At this level they'll probably do a reverse split and that will only increase the downside pressure on the stock.

I understand what you're watching. I was doing something similar. I was also going to wait for a reverse split as well. The more this slows down the economy, the lower oil goes.

Volume down on SPY over last 4 days

I'd like to reply to all the folks who backed me off the ledge (thank you), but a general follow on question about earnings calls. It seems like regardless of what the actual result is, unless there's a cratering against guidance, there's usually at least a small bump, so for the recreational traders, do yall try to get in before and hope for a bump or wait until afterwards and wait to see what kinds of fundamentals are discussed before buying?

My most recent experience that makes me ask. My company was recently acquired by shopify, and we missed our annual target. by A LOT. like 35%. SHOP went gangbusters the first call after the acquisition, so it makes me wonder if its a viable strategy to pick hot stocks and buy before earnings are announced, regardless of what the actual earnings call will say.

EDIT: It seems crazy to me at face value, but I do already know that markets don't always match reasonable expectations.

look! 1998 appears.

lol. sorry, as long as it looks like 1998, ill keep talking about it.




.........jk. wrong 1998.

So hold off uh?

the % difference is so much higher at these levels. If it drops a few cents, you lost a fairly high percentage. I do not know what the bailout will do (went looking at historical data), but the price of oil went from $68 to $55 from October 1 to November 1 2008 (bailout was October 3).

I find it interesting that the $700 billion bailout on October 3, 2008 happened 48 calendar days BEFORE that signal. We haven't had our bailout yet, but we will soon.

DJIA dropped another 1,000 points (15%) from the same day that was a buy signal to the low point in March.

Question for some of you guys.

I have traded futures for the past several years and using a systematic strategy in my fund for the past 2 years. I've never had a need to move into options. With this volatility it's a massive challenge to trade futures with any volume or appropriate stops.

Where will I find the most value for SPX/Y or NQ puts and calls if i have intraday trades that generally enter near open or close and have a duration of 1-8 hours?

SPY, QQQ, DIA, and IWM if you don't want to deal with individual equities I'd think

IrishTxAggie said:

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SPY, QQQ, DIA, and IWM if you don't want to deal with individual equities I'd think

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Weeklies?

Depends on the exposure you want with the volatility. SPY can be shorter. SPY are MWF. I typically stick to weeklies of late with in and out within 15-20mins. The gapping the past 4 weeks could be euphoria or suicide if you held overnight

May pick up some KO (coca-cola) tomorrow, looking good for entry for a long term hold