jj9000 said:
AggieKeith15 said:
Very new trader here, but I feel like one of two scenarios will unfold:
1) There's another drop off as layoffs start happening, and companies start going under, and markets begin to fail. Meaning the bottom is in a month from now.
2) in the next week or so things stay low and dwindle down some, but eventually more word gets out on how many people are recovering (or not getting sick at all rather) from the virus. Meaning stocks are basically at floor prices already for the most part.
To the experienced traders, not sure what your thoughts are, but mine are to keep some spare cash in case a second drop off occurs, and in the meantime day trade for the next week or so before things start to settle down some and locking in for the big rise. Does this sound right to you all?
Not trying to be confrontational here, but, what basis are you making your Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 assumptions?
Scenario 1 --> Layoffs starts happening --> Businesses Fail --> Unemployment --> GDP contracts ---> I'll stop here as there's a cascading effect, and nowhere in this scenario is a cure for the Pandemic. Layoffs = Not a recovery on a month.
Scenario 2 ---> What indicators are leading anyone to believe this Pandemic is easing? If anything, it's the other way around. Look at the infection trajectory.
Again, I want to emphasize that everyone here is in the same boat as you are. Is this a great "Traders" market? YES.
But, I get the sense that several folks are looking for this thing to turn on a dime and skyrocket to 3,400 in a week or two, when in reality we JUST started shutting things down.
Thanks for the response! I wasn't trying to suggest the market will skyrocket , or recover in 2 weeks or a month, or even a couple of months from now. I am just trying to get a feel for what types of triggers could represent the bottom (marking the long rebuild) and determine what actions to take in each scenario.
First scenario: nothing changes, virus hits population hard; isolation continues to stop business -> a month goes by and companies declare; mass panic; big drop -> another month goes by with slow business, but light at end of tunnel; some more closures -> some more panic, but not enough room to sell cheaper, so most of it lost after first round of closures. -> isolation ends; people get sick, but manageable; recovery starts.
Second scenario: 2 weeks people isolate; continued uncertainty; stocks stay low -> people question media death counts, believe virus isn't affordable; Italy is unique case, SK and Italy get a hold on numbers ->people start going on with life more; stocks remain skeptical, but cautiously optomistic -> (speculative) warmer weather lowers spread; global spread looks better; medicines not available but make headlines giving encouragement -> some closures and gov help, but life goes on and rebuild begins.
In the event case 1 happens, it's best to regard the bottom a month out, because there's only so much room for more drops, right? So in the mean time trade, but hold mostly cash.
In the event of case 2, is it safe to practice day trading and attempt to make some gains while we wait for the clear bottom in the next couple of weeks ?
Really I'm just throwing out hypotheticals and trying to configure what the appropriate action is given that either event occurs.