AggieKeith15 said:
Very new trader here, but I feel like one of two scenarios will unfold:
1) There's another drop off as layoffs start happening, and companies start going under, and markets begin to fail. Meaning the bottom is in a month from now.
2) in the next week or so things stay low and dwindle down some, but eventually more word gets out on how many people are recovering (or not getting sick at all rather) from the virus. Meaning stocks are basically at floor prices already for the most part.
To the experienced traders, not sure what your thoughts are, but mine are to keep some spare cash in case a second drop off occurs, and in the meantime day trade for the next week or so before things start to settle down some and locking in for the big rise. Does this sound right to you all?
Not trying to be confrontational here, but, what basis are you making your Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 assumptions?
Scenario 1 --> Layoffs starts happening --> Businesses Fail --> Unemployment --> GDP contracts ---> I'll stop here as there's a cascading effect, and nowhere in this scenario is a cure for the Pandemic. Layoffs = Not a recovery on a month.
Scenario 2 ---> What indicators are leading anyone to believe this Pandemic is easing? If anything, it's the other way around. Look at the infection trajectory.
Again, I want to emphasize that everyone here is in the same boat as you are. Is this a great "Traders" market? YES.
But, I get the sense that several folks are looking for this thing to turn on a dime and skyrocket to 3,400 in a week or two, when in reality we JUST started shutting things down.