GarlandAg2012 said:

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Any other thoughts on how Trump's presser is gonna end up? Have some SPY 3/16 265 Calls that I can't decide what to do with. Up some now but might rip if he announces an agreed upon stimulus bill

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If it was bad news he would wait until after the markets closed for sure. I'd bet on the rip.

Boat Shoes said:

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deadbq03 said:

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Trolley Problems said:

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deadbq03 said:

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GarlandAg2012 said:

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Any other thoughts on how Trump's presser is gonna end up? Have some SPY 3/16 265 Calls that I can't decide what to do with. Up some now but might rip if he announces an agreed upon stimulus bill

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Grab some puts and bet on movement either way.

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Strangle time?

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Thats all I'm doing right now. Mostly cash and strangling the hell out of a few ETFs.

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Is a 3/16 SPY $240 to $270 strangle too wide?

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No idea. I'm going longer and wider but could easily be doing it wrong. Although considering my tiny play account is up roughly 30% in the past couple weeks, with no less than 70% sitting in cash, I'm happy to be wrong if I'm wrong.

claym711 said:

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We already hit -30% from ATHs on this. If a recession materializes I think it's going to be a devastating drawdown in the market. Something to keep in mind for the dip buyers.

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50% from high to lows aren't unprecedented. I think we get close or pass it with the way the flow of money has ceased.

Mortgage rates have rocked upward this week. I suspect banks expecting a recession with layoffs, handing out mortgages now more risky than a week ago.

bullard21k said:

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When trading in a Roth IRA do you not get hit with taxes on stock trades unless you pull the money out?

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Correct, in tax advantaged accounts like the 401k, Trad IRA, Roth IRA, and 529 you wouldn't worry about any tax consequences now unless potentially withdrawing the funds.

But be careful if you're trading the same security in a taxable account AND a tax advantaged account. I.e. selling a security at a loss in your brokerage acct and simultaneously buying in your Roth (within 30 days). Creates a wash sale and the "loss" would not help offset any other gains.

I know that's not what you were asking about but it's an important clarification for people trading in multiple types of accounts and not being negatively blindsided.

If we can finish green today, then we'd have a bullish harami formed...but my confidence on technical trading is <0% today

With the number of old people there, how are those not closed yet?

What kind of option strategy do you put on for Pelosi speaking at 1 CST and Trump speaking at 2 CST?

"mumbling orange condor"

And I always find a healthy Asian population there. Ain't nothing stopping me.

thirdcoast said:

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What kind of option strategy do you put on for Pelosi speaking at 1 CST and Trump speaking at 2 CST?

"mumbling orange condor"

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I have a feeling...This is crazy I know....They're going to both announce partnership to get stimulus passed and aid/response done as quickly as possible.

Man oil continues to get slaughtered...I work for RDS/A and we are down >50% in 2 months

Trolley Problems said:

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deadbq03 said:

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Trolley Problems said:

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deadbq03 said:

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GarlandAg2012 said:

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Any other thoughts on how Trump's presser is gonna end up? Have some SPY 3/16 265 Calls that I can't decide what to do with. Up some now but might rip if he announces an agreed upon stimulus bill

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Grab some puts and bet on movement either way.

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Strangle time?

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Thats all I'm doing right now. Mostly cash and strangling the hell out of a few ETFs.

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If I were to open a new strangle position, I'd want to do it before Trump's announcement right? 3/16 SPY 265C / 245P, or is that too wide?

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+5/-5

Prognightmare said:

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Jesus Christ.

the last of the bohemians said:

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Thx for Roku gap!
Probably doesn't get there but I'll wait since I've committed some funds on my other plays

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The things with bear markets is that valuations begin to matter which was not the case these last 3 years with the influx of cheap money driving stocks to crazy valuations. MOMO was the name of the game. The glory days of SHAK, BYND, etc.. are over for a while.

Based on this premise, I can see ROKU easily falling into the 50's. I'm not short or long. I like their product but wouldn't invest in it.

Talon2DSO said:

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Trolley Problems said:

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deadbq03 said:

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Trolley Problems said:

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deadbq03 said:

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GarlandAg2012 said:

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Any other thoughts on how Trump's presser is gonna end up? Have some SPY 3/16 265 Calls that I can't decide what to do with. Up some now but might rip if he announces an agreed upon stimulus bill

---

Grab some puts and bet on movement either way.

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Strangle time?

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Thats all I'm doing right now. Mostly cash and strangling the hell out of a few ETFs.

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If I were to open a new strangle position, I'd want to do it before Trump's announcement right? 3/16 SPY 265C / 245P, or is that too wide?

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+5/-5

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Man that spread for 3/16 is expensive! $5-6/contract.

Well, I'm trying it.

3/16 SPY Strangle 262C / 252P

I don't trade the airlines but I posted it for the board because several others were discussing them.

What was your fill? I see break even around 240/273 at mid bid/ask.

No way trump is going to announce something bad an hour before close. That's not him.

It will be something to pump into weekend. They've been trying every Friday.

Pulling out all stops with PPT, CEOs, Fed, and now going to cut taxes and helicopter drop money on the low income bracket.

depends on how the market reacts. They announced the rate cut and the market tanked.

Just bought some $3 Jan 2022 calls for HAL at $4.30. If oil doesn't get a pop in 21 months that money was pretty worthless anyway.

I agree he won't say anything negative but I'm half expecting a sell the news type situation going into the weekend.

AggiePeeps06 said:

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depends on how the market reacts. They announced the rate cut and the market tanked.

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Because the market was baking in another 25-50bps

Every knee shall bow and every tongue shall confess

you Catholic?

OverSeas AG said:

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gougler08 said:

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Man oil continues to get slaughtered...I work for RDS/A and we are down >50% in 2 months

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Could you fix that please... counting on you.

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Lol, I'm in downstream, we're making tons of money but don't make a dent in the overall scheme of things

Harkrider 93 said:

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you Catholic?

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Yep, had bean and cheese tacos for breakfast, fish at lunch and taking my Mom and son to the KofC fish fry for dinner.

Prognightmare said:

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Harkrider 93 said:

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you Catholic?

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Yep, had bean and cheese tacos for breakfast, fish at lunch and taking my Mom and son to the KofC fish fry for dinner.

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Cheese pizza for the win with kids on Friday

Prognightmare said:

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I agree he won't say anything negative but I'm half expecting a sell the news type situation going into the weekend.

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me too. waiting on trump reaction.