So I know the team here sold half those $310 SPY calls Friday since they more than doubled after markets closed, right? I mean if we've taught anything it's to get your capital back on options, especially when facing expiration Tomorrow.

And then if you bought SPY shares you used the press upward to buy some Monday hedge Puts, or at least some $290 Puts creating a wider $299/$310 spread.


I added some super cheap $270 Puts as further hedge so if things get crazy to the downside and reaches $270 I'll bank my other Puts and still be 100% protected.

It's going to be a bumpy ride over the next weeks and even months, now that this event will bridge election stress.

Executed that plan. First trade that I did 100% solo that I'm really proud of (have had big successes but consider them risky looking back). Thanks for all that you've done to teach.

Aggierific said:

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Executed that plan. First trade that I did 100% solo that I'm really proud of (have had big successes but consider them risky looking back). Thanks for all that you've done to teach.

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Makes my weekend!!!

Thinking about using this current market environment to buy some long LEAPS using SPY/QQQ. Like with a sizeable amount of my investable capital.

Wait a little longer or pull the trigger? Would love y'all's thoughts. 23 years old fwiw so can probably take the loss if the world ends lol

shiphunt said:

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Thinking about using this current market environment to buy some long LEAPS using SPY/QQQ. Like with a sizeable amount of my investable capital.

Wait a little longer or pull the trigger? Would love y'all's thoughts. 23 years old fwiw so can probably take the loss if the world ends lol

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At 23 if you're risk adverse, you could easily just throw cash at spy, aapl, msft, and a few others that are on sale currently and see tons of gains for a long time. May not be the exact bottom this week, but it's definitely a sale at the moment if you're really long.

khaos288 said:

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shiphunt said:

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Thinking about using this current market environment to buy some long LEAPS using SPY/QQQ. Like with a sizeable amount of my investable capital.

Wait a little longer or pull the trigger? Would love y'all's thoughts. 23 years old fwiw so can probably take the loss if the world ends lol

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At 23 if you're risk adverse, you could easily just throw cash at spy, aapl, msft, and a few others that are on sale currently and see tons of gains for a long time. May not be the exact bottom this week, but it's definitely a sale at the moment if you're really long.

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Wouldn't we want to wait for market to tank a bit more this week or next...then load up on these hopefully towards their bottoms?

bullard21k said:

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khaos288 said:

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shiphunt said:

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Thinking about using this current market environment to buy some long LEAPS using SPY/QQQ. Like with a sizeable amount of my investable capital.

Wait a little longer or pull the trigger? Would love y'all's thoughts. 23 years old fwiw so can probably take the loss if the world ends lol

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At 23 if you're risk adverse, you could easily just throw cash at spy, aapl, msft, and a few others that are on sale currently and see tons of gains for a long time. May not be the exact bottom this week, but it's definitely a sale at the moment if you're really long.

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Wouldn't we want to wait for market to tank a bit more this week or next...then load up on these hopefully towards their bottoms?

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It's a classic case of timing the market vs time in the market.

I do think we're safe to hold off buying this week. I think the fear will be severe until some effective countermeasures are announced. Panic sells though, so mainstream media is going to milk every issue. It's just very hard to guess bottom. So once you see a number you're happy with. Buy.

Trump's odds of reelection go up with recession fears, so Wall Street will further discount the market due to risks of Sanders winning. Not sure how we avoid a .5 rate cut this week.

Meant odds of losing of course

Great post and info doc!

I don't see it being reported either - but I remember reading a prelim study a couple weeks ago, linking asians as being high risk, specifically Japanese and southern Chinese. Whereas european (caucasian) and african american were at the lowest risk to developing a severe case of it. It had to do with receptor cells that the virus likes to attack (caucasians have fewer). Ah ha, found it - ACE2 expressing cells in the lungs - asians have far more than other ethnicities. The virus hacks into these cells and then uses them to reproduce more of the virus.

https://www.eturbonews.com/542533/coronavirus-risk-for-asians-africans-caucasians-revealed/

khaos288 said:

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bullard21k said:

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khaos288 said:

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shiphunt said:

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Thinking about using this current market environment to buy some long LEAPS using SPY/QQQ. Like with a sizeable amount of my investable capital.

Wait a little longer or pull the trigger? Would love y'all's thoughts. 23 years old fwiw so can probably take the loss if the world ends lol

---

At 23 if you're risk adverse, you could easily just throw cash at spy, aapl, msft, and a few others that are on sale currently and see tons of gains for a long time. May not be the exact bottom this week, but it's definitely a sale at the moment if you're really long.

---

Wouldn't we want to wait for market to tank a bit more this week or next...then load up on these hopefully towards their bottoms?

---

It's a classic case of timing the market vs time in the market.

I do think we're safe to hold off buying this week. I think the fear will be severe until some effective countermeasures are announced. Panic sells though, so mainstream media is going to milk every issue. It's just very hard to guess bottom. So once you see a number you're happy with. Buy.

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Got ya thanks.

Amazon is down over 200 points recently. If this thing gets down another 150-200 points I'm loading up BIG time on amzn

Yup. Amzn aapl msft are my big buys I've got my eye on

Any guesses on how the futures open? Down or way down?

We'll know in around 3 hours

FriscoKid said:

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Any guesses on how the futures open? Down or way down?

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I actually think it won't be that bad. I know there's panic, but sellers have to be a little worn out. 3 of the worst 5 single day drops in history last week.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_daily_changes_in_the_Dow_Jones_Industrial_Average

Your link doesn't seem to work?
Keeps saying database error.

khaos288 said:

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FriscoKid said:

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Any guesses on how the futures open? Down or way down?

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I actually think it won't be that bad. I know there's panic, but sellers have to be a little worn out. 3 of the worst 5 single day drops in history last week.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_daily_changes_in_the_Dow_Jones_Industrial_Average

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Have no idea if it can move the needle, but everyday people are moving their money out of the market every day. Several in the office either did or have threatened to. Has to be more sell offs as it gets closer to home and we see tangible issues like shortages of certain goods and long lines at Costco.

docaggie said:

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Your link doesn't seem to work?
Keeps saying database error.

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that is weird, doesn't work now...

I did find this, but overall nothing conclusive...

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41421-020-0147-1

Quote:

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The single-cell RNA-seq analysis reported that the Asian donor had much higher ACE2 expression cell ratio than white and African-American donors6.

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Premium said:

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khaos288 said:

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FriscoKid said:

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Any guesses on how the futures open? Down or way down?

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I actually think it won't be that bad. I know there's panic, but sellers have to be a little worn out. 3 of the worst 5 single day drops in history last week.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_daily_changes_in_the_Dow_Jones_Industrial_Average

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Have no idea if it can move the needle, but everyday people are moving their money out of the market every day. Several in the office either did or have threatened to. Has to be more sell offs as it gets closer to home and we see tangible issues like shortages of certain goods and long lines at Costco.

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Big money wants this panic selling by individual investors. You see the buying at the end of Friday? They are buying and even if we open up down big tomorrow, I suspect they will buy again.

Ragoo said:

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Premium said:

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khaos288 said:

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FriscoKid said:

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Any guesses on how the futures open? Down or way down?

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I actually think it won't be that bad. I know there's panic, but sellers have to be a little worn out. 3 of the worst 5 single day drops in history last week.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_daily_changes_in_the_Dow_Jones_Industrial_Average

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Have no idea if it can move the needle, but everyday people are moving their money out of the market every day. Several in the office either did or have threatened to. Has to be more sell offs as it gets closer to home and we see tangible issues like shortages of certain goods and long lines at Costco.

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markets don't drop because people are taking money out. They drop because sellers are willing to lower their ask to find a buyer. Make no mistake every sell equals a buy as well.

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By the very definition you provide there is now less money in the market. Because 5 people lined up to sell to 1 buyer, the supply / demand ensured a lower price. Therefore the money did leave the market and literally disappeared into thin air - because many more people more seriously needed to sell off than wanted to buy.

that's assuming this even spreads far and wide... I read tonight, mortality rates may be way off (instead of 3 to 6%, more likely .3 to .6%, influenza like numbers)

Was thinking an interesting play might be the hand sanitizer and cleansing wipes industry, but unfortunately private money seems to dominate it. Purell and GermX are both currently privately held, and Wet Ones rolls up to diversified product co I'm not all that interested in. Clorox of course is owned by P&G.

Anyone seeing other angles to capitalize on this?

Futures down 300

JNJ

The quick money has already been made on that play.

FrioAg 00 said:

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Was thinking an interesting play might be the hand sanitizer and cleansing wipes industry, but unfortunately private money seems to dominate it. Purell and GermX are both currently privately held, and Wet Ones rolls up to diversified product co I'm not all that interested in. Clorox of course is owned by P&G.

Anyone seeing other angles to capitalize on this?

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Maybe easier to pick losers than winners here? Short stocks?

I'll take it. We could have been down 1000+ with the news of a US death.

Airlines, cruise ships, and hotels seem like good ones

Costco is going to have strong numbers in America next report.

Prognightmare said:

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I'll take it. We could have been down 1000+ with the news of a US death.

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With this market, could be +/- 1000 by market open

Oil is running down some more