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Last: 10 min ago by jagvocate
Welp, my puts should be golden
Seems legit....
Not
Not
khaos288 said:BREwmaster said:
This sounds morbid, but what happens when a Covid patient here in the u.s. passes away? markets overreact again?
If it's an 82 year old at home? Minor scare
If it's a 23 year old in a hospital? Bombs away
Quote:
The remaining cases were mostly from the West Coast, including 12 confirmed in California and six from the Seattle area. One of those patients, a middle-aged man in his 50s, died overnight Friday, becoming the first reported fatality on US soil.
Over 50.
A link on the death.
https://nypost.com/2020/02/29/first-us-coronavirus-death-reported-in-washington-state/
May have been a woman.
The bad part about the one in Seattle is, from my understanding, the deceased was in some sort of assisted living home which means that the overall exposure to the others in there could be pretty bad.
The US is about to start testing for the virus, so expect cases to increase exponentially for a few days/weeks.
This is still no worse than the flu, but I expect people to continue to freak out because it's being pushed by the media, partly for ratings and partly to make the Trump administration look bad.
It will have a short-term effect on gdp, but that will reverse in the second half of the year. I'm interested to see what policy response we will have beyond any futile rate cuts.
This is still no worse than the flu, but I expect people to continue to freak out because it's being pushed by the media, partly for ratings and partly to make the Trump administration look bad.
It will have a short-term effect on gdp, but that will reverse in the second half of the year. I'm interested to see what policy response we will have beyond any futile rate cuts.
This nonsense has been debunked too many times for people to continue posting it. Secondly, if cases ramp, there will likely be a recession.
Debunk it again because I haven't seen and evidence that it is worse than the flu. And no, there won't be a recession if the disruption only lasts a few months. We were on the cusp of a global recovery before this outbreak.
https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/health/conditions-and-diseases/coronavirus/coronavirus-disease-2019-vs-the-flu
https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/health/conditions-and-diseases/coronavirus/coronavirus-disease-2019-vs-the-flu
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2002032
Study of 1099 confirmed. 91% got pneumonia. 93% needed hospitalization. 41% needed supplemental oxygen.
Numbers you'd expect for the flu if there were no herd immunity, vaccines, or anti viral treatments. So from that perspective, it is 'just the flu'.
Study of 1099 confirmed. 91% got pneumonia. 93% needed hospitalization. 41% needed supplemental oxygen.
Numbers you'd expect for the flu if there were no herd immunity, vaccines, or anti viral treatments. So from that perspective, it is 'just the flu'.
We're about to come into the warmer months. It will be interesting to see how the spread plays out in the south if it starts to get some legs in the US
Whether or not it is worse than the flu, the impact on the economy is going to be enormous. Air travel is taking a huge hit that will only get worse as more companies impose travel moratoriums. Supply chains are being massively disrupted. People are going to stop going out to eat or to the movies, etc.
Important to take into account that those results were primarily from Wuhan where living conditions are significantly poorer than the US too.
Air quality and smokers. We have less of both in the US. Yes there will be impacts here. And yes it will cause a business slowdown. And yes, the panic will be overblown.
True. Maybe our pop will experience 1/4 of those numbers. However, I really doubt the US will or can impose a quarantine like China did IF there is a concentrated outbreak here.
Either way, any outbreak whether 25% or our infected need hospitalization or more, is going to cause a big hit to GDP
Wildcard is what the Fed does to control the market.
Either way, any outbreak whether 25% or our infected need hospitalization or more, is going to cause a big hit to GDP
Wildcard is what the Fed does to control the market.
I think the widespread quarantines were required in China because their government covered up the spread initially. Who in the US doesn't know about the virus? I'm not minimizing the likelihood of an outbreak, but I believe we are better able to handle it. And the impacts while great, will be short lived. IMHO
Sorry - didn't intend to derail the business forum. I'll keep further virus posts on the proper thread.
Sorry - didn't intend to derail the business forum. I'll keep further virus posts on the proper thread.
Monywolf said:
I think the widespread quarantines were required in China because their government covered up the spread initially. Who in the US doesn't know about the virus? I'm not minimizing the likelihood of an outbreak, but I believe we are better able to handle it. And the impacts while great, will be short lived. IMHO
Sorry - didn't intend to derail the business forum. I'll keep further virus posts on the proper thread.
It might be the first time you see some publicly funded medicine go out en masse. One report that the virus has a vaccine or effective antiviral, and then all Trump has to do is announce it will be available to all paid for by government funds.
Otherwise the poor who can't afford to miss a day of work nor medicines on top will continue to spread the virus. Luckily I think the first happens. It's in the countries best interest to fund that, even if just to kill panic.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/29/coronavirus-ncaa-faces-pressure-to-hold-march-madness-without-audience.html
I think we will see more and more calls for canceling things when/if the spread happens in a major way America. Nobody will want to be liable for a stadium full of people. Large gatherings in France have already been cancelled and the Tokyo Olympics seems to be on thin ice. Interesting thing to think about with NCAA Tournament/Final Four coming up. Also Houston Rodeo is about to start and middle of NBA Season. Messing with big events will be yet another way to spook the markets.
I think we will see more and more calls for canceling things when/if the spread happens in a major way America. Nobody will want to be liable for a stadium full of people. Large gatherings in France have already been cancelled and the Tokyo Olympics seems to be on thin ice. Interesting thing to think about with NCAA Tournament/Final Four coming up. Also Houston Rodeo is about to start and middle of NBA Season. Messing with big events will be yet another way to spook the markets.
I was at Cookoff last night and zero ****s were given. Crowd was larger than last year. Rodeo will be the same.
IrishTxAggie said:
I was at Cookoff last night and zero ****s were given. Crowd was larger than last year. Rodeo will be the same.
I was there too and agree that it was quite jovial. However America is squarely in the first inning of this. Not saying anything will be cancelled but there will continue to be talks. Nobody is going to want to lose money by cancelling a large scale event but there will be lots of calls to do so if this spreads as quickly as it has in other countries. Just a matter of if it becomes a self fulfilling prophecy or not. If Olympics gets cancelled in Tokyo (big if) and it's spreading as badly in America it's going to be hard to justify hosting big events. It's also very easy to put out articles and statements like this calling for things to get cancelled. Scaring people is what what the media does best.
Do we cancel things because of the flu? I'm just seeing why this is such a big deal to create such a worldwide panic.
Talon2DSO said:
Do we cancel things because of the flu? I'm just seeing why this is such a big deal to create such a worldwide panic.
Its serious until it isnt. & because most of what we know for now is coming from places we dont really trust, I'll be interested in Japan. It is not China or Iran, & as Japan goes, I say so will the rest of the West. The flu itself is a headache, if you're healthy. But if we start hearing about child fatalities, people will panic. Right or wrong.
I'm interested on how it pans out there, & what the mortality rate will be. As it's been discussed in depth, a 3% mortality rate is already higher than the typical flu for a healthier population.
If you see a 3% mortality rate, it's because the number affected is massively undercounted, while the number of deaths isn't.
Monywolf said:
If you see a 3% mortality rate, it's because the number affected is massively undercounted, while the number of deaths isn't.
Also the apples to apples comparison would be flu vs covid without all the vaccines and antivirals that dim the flu numbers. Once those products come to life for covid, we can make better comparisons and quell panic.
Not to mention the majority of deaths were older males China, where a ton of males smoke and have smoking associated respiratory issues. The morality rate will drop significantly over the next few weeks.khaos288 said:Monywolf said:
If you see a 3% mortality rate, it's because the number affected is massively undercounted, while the number of deaths isn't.
Also the apples to apples comparison would be flu vs covid without all the vaccines and antivirals that dim the flu numbers. Once those products come to life for covid, we can make better comparisons and quell panic.
BDub3 said:Not to mention the majority of deaths were older males China, where a ton of males smoke and have smoking associated respiratory issues. The morality rate will drop significantly over the next few weeks.khaos288 said:Monywolf said:
If you see a 3% mortality rate, it's because the number affected is massively undercounted, while the number of deaths isn't.
Also the apples to apples comparison would be flu vs covid without all the vaccines and antivirals that dim the flu numbers. Once those products come to life for covid, we can make better comparisons and quell panic.
Good point. I can imagine the general level of health for packed Chinese cities/rural China is not great.
Monywolf said:
If you see a 3% mortality rate, it's because the number affected is massively undercounted, while the number of deaths isn't.
I'm not calling it concrete by any means, but if what's coming out of Japan is consistent with that %? We can at least trust it a little more. Market panic has set it in, so any positive news from somewhere reliable, will calm the masses I believe.
It's going to be a roller coaster for sure. I dont think it's the bubonic plague, but remaining cautious.
Time for some context.
The NEJM article posted above was a study, in China, of patients who tested positive after being hospitalized for their symptoms in December. It isn't even a complete data set, in that they only received data on less than 15% of those patients.
This is going to introduce certain biases into this study. First, you're only looking at the sickest of these patients, since it only includes data on patients ill enough to be hospitalized. Even then, the ICU admission rate was 5%, intubation and ventilation about half of that, and mortality rate was 1.4%.
If this is a representative sample of all patients hospitalized in China with COVID19 - and it's hard to know if it is - then the actual percentages are much much lower, since not every person who contracts the virus is hospitalized.
It's also important to remember the context of location. Everything I've read indicates COVID19 emerged in a densely packed population area, in a province in China that may not have the health resources of your average American city. Do the Chinese seek out medical care when sick as Americans do? Did they only present once farther along in the disease? Would these patients have done better in an American hospital?
It is an unknown, which is why people are freaking out about it. It's a great example of the focusing illusion. The more you hear about something, the greater importance it takes in your mind. I guarantee that people wouldn't be nearly as freaked out about this if it weren't for media attention.
Now, I'll defer to people better suited than I am to discuss the upcoming market effects of this.
The NEJM article posted above was a study, in China, of patients who tested positive after being hospitalized for their symptoms in December. It isn't even a complete data set, in that they only received data on less than 15% of those patients.
This is going to introduce certain biases into this study. First, you're only looking at the sickest of these patients, since it only includes data on patients ill enough to be hospitalized. Even then, the ICU admission rate was 5%, intubation and ventilation about half of that, and mortality rate was 1.4%.
If this is a representative sample of all patients hospitalized in China with COVID19 - and it's hard to know if it is - then the actual percentages are much much lower, since not every person who contracts the virus is hospitalized.
It's also important to remember the context of location. Everything I've read indicates COVID19 emerged in a densely packed population area, in a province in China that may not have the health resources of your average American city. Do the Chinese seek out medical care when sick as Americans do? Did they only present once farther along in the disease? Would these patients have done better in an American hospital?
It is an unknown, which is why people are freaking out about it. It's a great example of the focusing illusion. The more you hear about something, the greater importance it takes in your mind. I guarantee that people wouldn't be nearly as freaked out about this if it weren't for media attention.
Now, I'll defer to people better suited than I am to discuss the upcoming market effects of this.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
It's also an unknown for the market, which is being priced in. Is a 12% decline enough? Who knows? What we do know is this will pass, like every other black swan event in history, and the market will make new highs again, like every other time in history.
Thanks for that insight.
mavsfan4ever said:wessimo said:
"Would be?" WTF?
Haha this is like taking gambling advice from someone who doesn't have the balls to put their money where their mouth is. Would be? What's stopping you Eric?
Wrong!
It's a bigger gamble to go all in on your own businesses and a lot of people do that instead of plunge into attractive stock markets. The return on businesses can dwarf a roaring stock market. I get where he is coming from.
Nice to know something much more reliable.
claym711 said:
https://www.fox5ny.com/news/nyse-could-close-trading-floor-in-coronavirus-contingency
Glad I picked up a couple SPY puts
Wall St. can still be fully operational and running even if the "floor" is closed.Talon2DSO said:claym711 said:
https://www.fox5ny.com/news/nyse-could-close-trading-floor-in-coronavirus-contingency
Glad I picked up a couple SPY puts
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