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EngrAg14
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2:49p, 8/14/19
AG
We're potentially looking at *roughly* 2740 -> 2685 -> 2620 -> 2450 -> 2345 for our resistance correct?

I'm imagining how quickly this could fall, if talks go south -> Trump declares higher or more tariffs for Sept.
and if China brings troops into HK.
Down to 2345 is nearly 20% drop and at that point I think media panic for recession/correction sends it lower.
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YNWA_AG
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2:54p, 8/14/19
AG
Added some 9/20 WPM calls
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claym711
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3:09p, 8/14/19
AG
The only way screaming about rate cuts from 2.25 makes any sense is if he's painting a picture of who's fault it is if/when we "correct" again ahead of the election.
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Topher17
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In reply to claym711 • 4:01p, 8/14/19
AG
claym711 said:
The only way screaming about rate cuts from 2.25 makes any sense is if he's painting a picture of who's fault it is if/when we "correct" again ahead of the election.


This is exactly what it appears he's doing. Setting up his scapegoats for when he can't just point and say how strong the economy is if it goes south before the election.

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leoj
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4:34p, 8/14/19
AG
How bad do things get if China sends in troops to put down the HK protests?
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IrishTxAggie
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In reply to leoj • 4:38p, 8/14/19
AG
I would expect trading halt

Global panic to the umpteenth degree
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The Debt
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6:03p, 8/14/19
The biggest vulnerability to our economy is external. And that is why America is exceptional.
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Brewmaster
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In reply to Aggie_2463 • 6:12p, 8/14/19
AG
Aggie_2463 said:
Might scoop me up some COOP tomorrow if the markets down again. $9.09 currently.
grab some OSTK while you're at it. Buy the dip!
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IrishTxAggie
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6:32p, 8/14/19
AG


Maybe some relief coming tomorrow...
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The Debt
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6:37p, 8/14/19
Why do you people think this is all about China and not Germany and Danes negative interest rates?

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IrishTxAggie
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In reply to The Debt • 6:42p, 8/14/19
AG
The Debt said:
Why do you people think this is all about China and not Germany and Danes negative interest rates?

Oh, that's a problem too. But the biggest looming factor is the China trade war. That much is obvious. We don't have nearly as much exposure to those two markets and whims as we do in China and Hong Kong.
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Aggie_2463
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In reply to Brewmaster • 6:44p, 8/14/19
AG
BREwmaster said:
Aggie_2463 said:
Might scoop me up some COOP tomorrow if the markets down again. $9.09 currently.
grab some OSTK while you're at it. Buy the dip!


Andddd I'm a bag holder again (me tomorrow)
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ryanhnc10
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7:48p, 8/14/19
AG
A lot of the smaller O&G stocks are at decade lows or near them. How low will these things go? Doesn't seem like worst case is priced in yet - but these things can't go much lower can they?
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TheVarian
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7:53p, 8/14/19
AG
Silly question, but how do you "sideline" your 401k?
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Aggie_2463
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In reply to TheVarian • 8:02p, 8/14/19
AG
TheVarian said:
Silly question, but how do you "sideline" your 401k?


I had it sitting in a bonds mutual fund that moves very very little one way or the other. Moved it out of stock funds about 2 months or so back. So I'll be moving back into stock funds during this "correction"
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permabull
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In reply to TheVarian • 8:02p, 8/14/19
AG
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ProgN
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In reply to TheVarian • 8:03p, 8/14/19
The mutual fund family that your 401k uses will have a money market fund that you can move your mutual fund proceeds into from the more aggressive funds.
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HoustonAg2014
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In reply to TheVarian • 8:06p, 8/14/19
AG
TheVarian said:
Silly question, but how do you "sideline" your 401k?


I've had 2-3 people ask this in the last hour. Money market fund. Some people legit thought they had to withdraw their money from their 401k or IRA... This isn't directed at you but I was a little in shock. These are people with business degrees somehow.

Also for the ones around in 2008 when the crash happened, it doesn't happen when everyone is expecting it does it? I hear people pulling their money left and right but it seems like it never happens when everyone is expecting it to happen.
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Brewmaster
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In reply to ryanhnc10 • 8:13p, 8/14/19
AG
ryanhnc10 said:
A lot of the smaller O&G stocks are at decade lows or near them. How low will these things go? Doesn't seem like worst case is priced in yet - but these things can't go much lower can they?
Piggy back on your question... For those that have experience here (I don't), if we do hit a big downturn, is the bust choosy on which stocks dump, or are we talking 10 to 20% across the board?

For example, I'd expect fake meat to drop like a boat anchor, but oil and gas to only lose a little more (crazy low already). NFLX, W, BYND to name a few duds...

from a technical trader... Re: yesterday's surge...

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mrad85
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8:17p, 8/14/19
AG
Just heard on Fox that Al Gore is one of the major shareholders of Beyond Meat.

Not surprising since the UN is being lobbied to cut out meat consumption
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Bonfire1996
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8:24p, 8/14/19
AG
I hope I can get into VLO after this correction. 4.5% dividend yield and dividend reaffirm during last earnings call.
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ProgN
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In reply to Brewmaster • 8:40p, 8/14/19
The stocks that would get scalped in a massive selloff are the ones that have shown relative strength and haven't corrected yet. Sectors that have been pummeled, O&G for example will not react as viciously. These stocks, IMO are at their bottom. They will lag other stocks in a rebound but there really isn't anymore news that can push them lower. Take today as an example, when I bought RIG the market was only down 400 points, after that the price of oil tanked and the market sold off hard yet it closed 4 cents below my buy price. Hell, the market cap of RIG is only 456 million, I believe their drilling fleet is worth more. RIG, PTEN and even WLL are excellent trading stocks right now. Just trade them for .30-.60 sell and wait for them to pullback again. Don't buy it expecting it to go back to 10-12 in 3 months, doesn't work that way, just trade the hell out of them. Don't mess with options on them either, at their current prices they are essentially an option without the time decay.

This is just my observations and what I'm currently doing. Make your own determinations.
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Brewmaster
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In reply to ProgN • 8:47p, 8/14/19
AG
Very helpful chief, thanks!

I'll just leave this nugget here... someone Do it! you have to fund the OA bbq if it hits though!

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leoj
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In reply to mrad85 • 8:49p, 8/14/19
AG
Nm
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Agswinning
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In reply to TheVarian • 9:11p, 8/14/19
TheVarian said:
Silly question, but how do you "sideline" your 401k?


I work for an insurance company that has an investment option that pays a guaranteed rate of return. I can park it there from time to time.
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Whittington01
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In reply to ProgN • 10:15p, 8/14/19
AG
Sometimes you get a catch up by things doing well, sometimes not. If the US consumer continues to do well while the rest of the world slows industrially then you get more weakness in oil and gas stocks as lower oil gets priced in. But if we got a sudden Lehman type shock then what gets sold as stock correlations rise are generally the things that people own and / or are overweight. Liquid stocks may fare worse as that's what you can sell easily. Illiquid stocks may "look better" but have no bid.

Think about who has to sell and why. Is it vol targeting funds because vix is rising? Then SPX gets liquidated. Is it value funds getting carried out because they went all in too early - then banks, energy and retail get blitzed. Or is market neutral funds blowing up at millennium - then think Goldman Sachs VIP list going down relative to the market.

We don't have enough info to know who gets carried out in the next leg but that will help you think about it.
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ProgN
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5:41a, 8/15/19


This came out 15 mins ago and futures reversed pretty hard. They also said they will probably have to move on HK. This caused the futures to sell off. I would expect weakness today and tomorrow because traders won't want to be holding over the weekend. We'll see soon enough.
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ProgN
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5:48a, 8/15/19
CSCO guided analysts lower for the next qtr and announced 500 layoffs. This is putting further pressure on the markets.
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IrishTxAggie
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In reply to ProgN • 6:25a, 8/15/19
AG
Futures almost back to even. I think we'll open green.
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ProgN
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6:25a, 8/15/19
Futures came back up, that's a positive though.
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ProgN
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In reply to IrishTxAggie • 6:26a, 8/15/19
Just saw that, that's a good sign. We were down 200 on the DJ
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ProgN
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6:43a, 8/15/19


Wasn't someone on here looking to buy GE? If so, I wanted you to see this.
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UpstateAg
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In reply to ProgN • 6:46a, 8/15/19
AG
I mean, if you aren't cheating you aren't trying? I don't know. I'm still long GE and Larry.
The disclaimer of the guy being part of a hedge fund shorting the company... hmmmmmm
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ProgN
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In reply to UpstateAg • 6:56a, 8/15/19
I'm not in GE, nor do I trade it so I admittedly didn't read the article. I just posted it because I remember someone on here mentioning they did/were and I wanted them to have the information.
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Aggie_2463
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7:00a, 8/15/19
AG
Futures may be up but I'm sure RIG will be red
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