Blood in the streets on Christmas Eve.

Buying quite a few oil stocks today. RDS, EOG, XOM, ET, NFX/ECA. couple year hold. Wish me luck.

JFK_00 said:

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Buying quite a few oil stocks today. RDS, EOG, XOM, ET, NFX/ECA. couple year hold. Wish me luck.

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$11 limit order on ET to get back in. This was a good play for me in 2015-2017. Plus a decent distribution (dividend) while it recovers.

Agree and ET is a different Co. today. I've been in and out of mlps in the past.

I swore off speculative call leap options, considering getting back in.

ROKU showing strength in the onslaught. I believe it's at the bottom. It's almost at it's IPO opening.

TWTR bounced off that Oct 11 resistance. I like short term calls with an exit if it breaks 26.15

jefe95 said:

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How many more 500 point drops are in this market before it bottoms? I know if we all had a crystal ball we would short the hell out of it an go.

But damn this selloff seems stupid

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This is a lot of tax loss selling before end of year. I'll be taking new positions out either Friday or next week and be in position for a rally in January. You're correct the market is definitely WAY oversold. There are several stocks that should double from these current prices. JMO.

Earlier in this thread, people called S&P 2100 bottom.

Typical bears retrace 50% of bull's gains. We started at S&P 700 and went to 2900. Half of 2200 point gain is 1100 and would indicate 1800 is the bottom.

I'm not convinced this is a true bear market.

I will comfortable with reentering buy and hold of index equity funds anywhere from 1800 to 2100. I'm 90% cash right now. Haven't been in the equities market for two years playing XIV and VXX but I've kept up with the S&P over that time.

I'd really like to own Amazon long term so would love to get in a decent price

Was thinking the same on Amazon (edit to clarify), and assumed the 1700s were a decent entry. Now I'm thinking of doubling down and dropping my average purchase price to high 1400s

I'm still quite bullish on their next 10 years sales growth

Are you referring that the S&P 500 will hit 1400-1700?

Sorry, no - was taking Amazon

FrioAg 00 said:

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Sorry, no - was taking Amazon

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Whew, that's good, you had me worried friend.

Technically, this is very very bad. In terms of MA crossovers, Magnitude to MAs, average daily range, there is no comparison since 2009, which was the most recent comparable sell off.

For most, the reason for a crash is never obvious until it is. trillions in QE were pumped into the market and it was only a matter of time for any amount of QT to start ripping off bandaids.

There's still such little fear, people with darts at the ready. Tax loss harvesting? Zero chance that's what this selling is.

The 2015/2016 tops don't hold and it will start to get real.

FrioAg 00 said:

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If we hit SPX at 1300 I'm deleting all the apps I can even see market info - call it hunker down blindly strategy

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We hit SPX at 1300 then that means we're in a nuclear war with China/Russia or CW2.

General Question of people that follow technical analysis. My charting software can't pull this up or I don't know how. Can anyone pull up the market bottom in spring of '09 (I believe) and post the charts from that month and the preceeding 6,9 and 12 months before the month it bottomed. Please include MA's and MACD, Stochastics. I'd be interested in overlaying it with the current market. TIA if someone is able to do that.

Merry Christmas everyone and your families.

You can use TradingView to do the above for free

Does anyone use TastyWorks for trading?

We reached right at 2350 S&P and I put 25% into equities but have an array on Puts that some of those already came into the money, which is frankly a WOW.

NFLX gap at $227 is upon on us with even a red opening and that has been my main key for dropping a large portion back into the markets and with a close at lows I split the buys today and looking for a red opening that takes us to fill that gap Monday. I sold some naked Puts on NFLX that would net entry at $225 if filled. I don't want to miss NFLX, AMZN or NVDA entries and feel 100% confident in accepting downside from here on those.

I did nab those AMZN $1000 Puts and $300 on a $1000+ stock is like $3 on a $50 stock so with the premiums popped on those Puts I bought 25% against the total represented Put volume. Looks like this. 15 AMZN Jan4 Puts = 1500 shares. Purchased 375 shares of AMZN. If the market have another large down day and we come within $150 of $1000 on AMZN my completed approach is to purchase another 375 shares while simultaneously selling 50% of the Puts.

I bank the Premium on that 50% which offsets the decline on 375 shares at $1340 and I have Puts against 750 shares through Jan 4. If its not a no loss trade it is darn close, and to be able to leverage that many shares of an AMZN is the objective.

Unmerciful selloff. Gaps are getting filled as of today on multiple key stocks with bell weathers close behind. How far will this initial rubberband stretch until we see the initial snapback? I think we're close. Also, as Claym and others have pointed out, a bear market means the snap back will squeeze and press rapidly but once it ends stocks will sink back to find longer term major support. So this isn't a true buy and hold opening we'll see.

What's on everyone's wish list for unmercifully beat down stocks that will rally?

claym711 said:

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You can use TradingView to do the above for free

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Thank you

100% agree on AMZN. Want to own it. They are going to win retail in a big way for a long time plus cloud plus original content plus, plus, plus.

NFLX is a bet on their ability to crank out great original content right? Which I can believe though AMZN and others coming with great content too.

NVDA bubbled on bitcoin mining. What's the long term thesis for wanting to own them?

ryanhnc10 said:

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What's on everyone's wish list for unmercifully beat down stocks that will rally?

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I'm buying ROKU at the open on Wednesday if we open up down because I too expect a snap back rally spike soon. It showed incredible strength today and was positive for most of the session. It is also near it's opening IPO price of $20 so I see minimal risk at this level.

Well, you've had a few hours...what'd you find?

I haven't done the chart work yet, my wife had me running errands for Christmas dinner. We're hosting. I'm frying a turkey and she's making Gordon Ramsay's Beef Wellington, we also are prepping several sides. I will look at trading view and compare those graphs and report back tonight or tomorrow.

dlp3719 said:

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100% agree on AMZN. Want to own it. They are going to win retail in a big way for a long time plus cloud plus original content plus, plus, plus

NFLX is a bet on their ability to crank out great original content right? Which I can believe though AMZN and others coming with great content too.

NVDA bubbled on bitcoin mining. What's the long term thesis for wanting to own them?

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AMZN could go to 800 if you follow the H&S pattern and neckline at around 1400 that has been broken.

I would not buy anything for the long term at these levels. This market will probably rally up to the 2600 SP500 level and then sell off back to test the lows are set a new low. You will have plenty of time to buy. I have this market going to 2250-2300 then probably a 10+% rally followed by a retest of the lows or setting new lows. Break the 2250-2300 level and this secular bull is over and we could be in a secular bear that could eventually take 40%+ off this market. Saying that, this market has not been this oversold on a daily and weekly basis since the end of 2008 and beginning of 2009, and that was the end of the 2008-2009 bear, but it can get more over sold.

It's hard to tell. Right now volatility is pretty high so this could easily go right back up in a few weeks.

I hope you're right because my trading account is locked and loaded. I agree that your read on the market might be accurate, however, a snap trade is very close.

This seems like a big drop, but markets are still at April '17 levels.

For CAPE10 to return to the historical mean the index would have to fall another 36% so we may have a ways to go yet.

For those who weren't in the market for the last crash ('09) (and anyone with a long investing horizon), take advantage of the opportunity to buy on the cheap! I wish I had gone longer on equities during the dark times and the run up.

What single stock has the real possibility of increasing by 50% come June/July?