drill4oil78 said:
FriscoKid said:
You guys are biased by what you think that chart is. Look at the price action at the bottom.
That is an inverse of the S&P from 2004. Monthly candles. I would not be selling on that chart with that kind of action. That looks like a reversal.
Just the opposite of what we have on the SP500 now. Current weekly and monthly chart is a H&S pattern with the neckline at 2600. Break that and we are going to 2300 area. Considering other technical things going on, the odds are in favor of it breaking that neckline.
Macro is just another Darvis Box. I don't know how many times we have to cover this. It's why it's been go big at the lows and sell on the bounces. It's a traders dream market nearly a year now. Two 300 point wild swings from below 2600 to 2900 area with each wild swing followed by tighter swings over tighter swings.
We were discussing the exact same thing back in 2015 into the election with a break to the upside out of that, taking us into the Jan 2018 top. To the bears - we've had some winners like SQ/ROKU/OLED along with the FANG stocks rapid rise within the sideways Darvis Box but look at most financials, pharma, construction, energy - nearly all have been range bound with no significant upside and quickly lost it on each range move down.
So that's a YEAR of consolidation, so it would be wise to pay attention to the facts and not over leverage to the downside beyond these retest lows within the Darvis Box - unless it breaks on volume. Yesterday we had the mass volume at the lows which tells us some major players aren't ready to throw the towel in. However, given the current conditions unless we get more big money rowing the same direction the bounces are shorter and shorter lived.
If we look at the 300 point swing from January 29th to February 9th (which is terrifying in itself to see over a 300 point drop in 10 days!) the ranges got tighter and tighter and then the bulls got enough directional agreement that a squeeze occurred taking us to new all-time highs. Now look at this current start of the quick drop. Tighter ranges under 2800.
So Bears break the Darvis Box on volume below 2600 (AND CLOSE BELOW 2550) OR Bulls break it above 2800 on volume (AND CLOSE ABOVE 2815).
For all the "you can't time the markets" people - while individual stocks behave more erratically within these macro moves - if you can't see the above analysis on the chart below, with your own eyes, then why are you even on a trading thread???