Just the opposite of what we have on the SP500 now. Current weekly and monthly chart is a H&S pattern with the neckline at 2600. Break that and we are going to 2300 area. Considering other technical things going on, the odds are in favor of it breaking that neckline eventually.FriscoKid said:
You guys are biased by what you think that chart is. Look at the price action at the bottom.
That is an inverse of the S&P from 2004. Monthly candles. I would not be selling on that chart with that kind of action. That looks like a reversal.
Stock Markets
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Last: 44 min ago by El_duderino
Futures up this morning... let's see if it'll hold!
Macro is just another Darvis Box. I don't know how many times we have to cover this. It's why it's been go big at the lows and sell on the bounces. It's a traders dream market nearly a year now. Two 300 point wild swings from below 2600 to 2900 area with each wild swing followed by tighter swings over tighter swings.drill4oil78 said:Just the opposite of what we have on the SP500 now. Current weekly and monthly chart is a H&S pattern with the neckline at 2600. Break that and we are going to 2300 area. Considering other technical things going on, the odds are in favor of it breaking that neckline.FriscoKid said:
You guys are biased by what you think that chart is. Look at the price action at the bottom.
That is an inverse of the S&P from 2004. Monthly candles. I would not be selling on that chart with that kind of action. That looks like a reversal.
We were discussing the exact same thing back in 2015 into the election with a break to the upside out of that, taking us into the Jan 2018 top. To the bears - we've had some winners like SQ/ROKU/OLED along with the FANG stocks rapid rise within the sideways Darvis Box but look at most financials, pharma, construction, energy - nearly all have been range bound with no significant upside and quickly lost it on each range move down.
So that's a YEAR of consolidation, so it would be wise to pay attention to the facts and not over leverage to the downside beyond these retest lows within the Darvis Box - unless it breaks on volume. Yesterday we had the mass volume at the lows which tells us some major players aren't ready to throw the towel in. However, given the current conditions unless we get more big money rowing the same direction the bounces are shorter and shorter lived.
If we look at the 300 point swing from January 29th to February 9th (which is terrifying in itself to see over a 300 point drop in 10 days!) the ranges got tighter and tighter and then the bulls got enough directional agreement that a squeeze occurred taking us to new all-time highs. Now look at this current start of the quick drop. Tighter ranges under 2800.
So Bears break the Darvis Box on volume below 2600 (AND CLOSE BELOW 2550) OR Bulls break it above 2800 on volume (AND CLOSE ABOVE 2815).
For all the "you can't time the markets" people - while individual stocks behave more erratically within these macro moves - if you can't see the above analysis on the chart below, with your own eyes, then why are you even on a trading thread???
Buying SFIX here at $18.96 in 401k accounts
MNGA invited to Abu Dhabi to present their technology.
http://pdf.reuters.com/htmlnews/htmlnews.asp?i=43059c3bf0e37541&u=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20181211:nGNX89yfxQ
http://pdf.reuters.com/htmlnews/htmlnews.asp?i=43059c3bf0e37541&u=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20181211:nGNX89yfxQ
Watch ROKU closely. We either have one of those patented market makers "hit a new low" before reversing and racing upward, or ROKU is going to trend all the way back to $30 area major support.
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3416059-roku-minus-6-percent-lead-oem-partner-tcl-shifts-away-consumer-tvsoldarmy1 said:
Watch ROKU closely. We either have one of those patented market makers "hit a new low" before reversing and racing upward, or ROKU is going to trend all the way back to $30 area major support.
Quote:
Roku (NASDAQ:ROKU) is sinking this morning, now down 6% to a session low, after weekend news that TV maker TCL is restructuring and shifting its attention away from consumer electronics.
TCL has been the lead OEM partner for televisions in Roku's whole home entertainment licensing program, selling Roku-included televisions through multiple channels including big box retailers.
TCL will sell nine subsidiaries, a move that will shift it from consumer-facing appliance businesses toward semiconductors and displays for enterprise customers.
Weird. The TCL tv was one of the best reviewed on the market that wasn't over $1k, I was looking at picking one up the next time it went on a big sale.
Thanks Prog...no reading time recently, so appreciate the posting.
As for intraday markets we get a 350 pop and consolidate all the profit takers taking money off the table, thinking another bounce fail. We have a gap at 2647 on the S&P. If that were to get filled its gonna get dicey without some sort of major catalyst. Filling the gap and moving back to days highs would be EXTREMELY bullish, almost guaranteeing a wave upwards towards that 2800 level.
If not and no momentum comes in then the watch for 2600 returns.
As for intraday markets we get a 350 pop and consolidate all the profit takers taking money off the table, thinking another bounce fail. We have a gap at 2647 on the S&P. If that were to get filled its gonna get dicey without some sort of major catalyst. Filling the gap and moving back to days highs would be EXTREMELY bullish, almost guaranteeing a wave upwards towards that 2800 level.
If not and no momentum comes in then the watch for 2600 returns.
Looks like a sale on TCL RokuTV's is going to happen soon...
We love ours. Highly Recommend.
We love ours. Highly Recommend.
UpstateAg said:
Looks like a sale on TCL RokuTV's is going to happen soon...
We love ours. Highly Recommend.
+1, great smart TV for the price
We should bounce right here. Gap filled on momentum to candle of yesterday at 2635. Day traders are entering right now.
TCL in my garage and I love it
Risk trade entering. INTC Dec 21 $49 Calls at $0.40 cents with target sell $0.95 cents
Close above 2638 for high odds move upward tomorrow. We have an upside down day as it stands right now.
Sometimes you just get lucky in your entries. Filled 2 minutes before markets took off.oldarmy1 said:
Risk trade entering. INTC Dec 21 $49 Calls at $0.40 cents with target sell $0.95 cents
I don't get the banking sector sell off these past few months. Really looking at DFS, JPM, BLK
Morgan Stanley wins the Uber IPO and the stock still sells off back to near 2 day lows. The financials are screaming at us and we best be listening. I keep waiting to see gold take off but every pop retraces immediately. If gold takes off I would have a better read on whats to come.leoj said:
I don't get the banking sector sell off these past few months. Really looking at DFS, JPM, BLK
oldarmy1 said:Morgan Stanley wins the Uber IPO and the stock still sells off back to near 2 day lows. The financials are screaming at us and we best be listening. I keep waiting to see gold take off but every pop retraces immediately. If gold takes off I would have a better read on whats to come.leoj said:
I don't get the banking sector sell off these past few months. Really looking at DFS, JPM, BLK
I prefer Lyft over Uber and I don't think the IPO will go well... Uber was the innovator of the model. Lyft is much better at perfecting it. I'll look at Lyft's IPO strongly.
why do you prefer lyft?IrishTxAggie said:oldarmy1 said:Morgan Stanley wins the Uber IPO and the stock still sells off back to near 2 day lows. The financials are screaming at us and we best be listening. I keep waiting to see gold take off but every pop retraces immediately. If gold takes off I would have a better read on whats to come.leoj said:
I don't get the banking sector sell off these past few months. Really looking at DFS, JPM, BLK
I prefer Lyft over Uber and I don't think the IPO will go well... Uber was the innovator of the model. Lyft is much better at perfecting it. I'll look at Lyft's IPO strongly.
the struggle they are going to have is that Uber is becoming or has already become the eponym for a non-taxi based taxi service.
Yes but MS will still make a heckuva payday over the IPO for their trouble.IrishTxAggie said:oldarmy1 said:Morgan Stanley wins the Uber IPO and the stock still sells off back to near 2 day lows. The financials are screaming at us and we best be listening. I keep waiting to see gold take off but every pop retraces immediately. If gold takes off I would have a better read on whats to come.leoj said:
I don't get the banking sector sell off these past few months. Really looking at DFS, JPM, BLK
I prefer Lyft over Uber and I don't think the IPO will go well... Uber was the innovator of the model. Lyft is much better at perfecting it. I'll look at Lyft's IPO strongly.
Quality of service. Also the app is more user friendly. Just an overall preference and Lyft hasn't had the PR nightmares that Uber has.
Ragoo said:why do you prefer lyft?IrishTxAggie said:oldarmy1 said:Morgan Stanley wins the Uber IPO and the stock still sells off back to near 2 day lows. The financials are screaming at us and we best be listening. I keep waiting to see gold take off but every pop retraces immediately. If gold takes off I would have a better read on whats to come.leoj said:
I don't get the banking sector sell off these past few months. Really looking at DFS, JPM, BLK
I prefer Lyft over Uber and I don't think the IPO will go well... Uber was the innovator of the model. Lyft is much better at perfecting it. I'll look at Lyft's IPO strongly.
the struggle they are going to have is that Uber is becoming or has already become the eponym for a non-taxi based taxi service.
I prefer Lyft as well. Uber charges much higher rates when they're busy. At normal rates, the rides cost a similar amount...but not when Uber does the rate hike. Riders aren't stupid, and they generally switch to lyft during the rate hike for a cheaper ride. And some stay with Lyft since the cost is more consistent. Riders aren't going to pay Uber $30 for a ride when they can spend $15 with Lyft.
I actually use lyft exclusively for that reason. That and the fact that Uber tried to screw me with a fraudulent $150 cleaning fee.
As for calling it an Uber. Do Coca Cola sales go up when Texans ask you what kind of coke you want?
drivers also prefer working for Lyft and it shows.
Many drivers will do both Lyft and Uber and those always take the Lyft fares first - they also don't have any issue telling you Lyft treats them way better than Uber.
Many drivers will do both Lyft and Uber and those always take the Lyft fares first - they also don't have any issue telling you Lyft treats them way better than Uber.
Close but no CEEEEEGAR at 2637. Financial stocks drifting further down after close. Very disconcerting on those. Still, our lows today were right in line with Thursday Friday lows, not reaching yesterdays flash down. I'm 90% cash after missing yesterdays buy, since I was off the grid. Bought that INTC call entered today. I have ROKU with covered calls keeping my position net 3% negative. The BAC call option trade was a loss. All of those were small trades.oldarmy1 said:
Close above 2638 for high odds move upward tomorrow. We have an upside down day as it stands right now.
As for how I'm handling 401k's, after putting 25% of cash in, selling 50% on the nice range bound bounce and then doing it again I'm back to 25% of cash into the market. We're talking sidelined cash, which is 100% of non-planted (net free) holdings. And even on the net free holdings I've sold covered calls successfully with only 1 stock getting called out, and I'm now able to buy it back 12% lower (although I haven't pulled the trigger yet).
Tomorrow is a big day (IMO) because of the massive capitulation the last 5 sessions. A 6th day historically reveals a big key on where we're heading. Right now I give the bears a 60/40 likelihood of markets breaking lower and trending down further - creating a real bear market. As posted with chart in earlier post everything up to today's close is simple Darvis Box uncertainty. You want to see some stocks drop relentlessly then take out the lows in the Box and get out your crying towels.
But its not over till its over and fact is the last 3 days created a v triangle. That's another reason why tomorrow will be a bell-weather, again IMO.
Lyft allows drivers with a poorer rating to operate, where Uber will kick you off. Many of the Lyft only drivers started out as Uber drivers and were given the boot.Vernada said:
drivers also prefer working for Lyft and it shows.
Many drivers will do both Lyft and Uber and those always take the Lyft fares first - they also don't have any issue telling you Lyft treats them way better than Uber.
I use both companies, but the Uber drivers are usually better, and are in nicer cars.
Uber also had a strange string of PR with the CEO that couldn't get out of his own way.
Financials are already in what's generally considered bear status.
Neither the behavior of these recent bounces or the volume are what I've seen in the recent past that indicate bull market is about to resume. Market needs a catalyst that I don't see coming. Economy will contract next year.
A few weeks ago when futures were flooded with millions of contracts bought over 3 days on a huge bounce, and then got sold right back to new lows, that revealed a lot.
Neither the behavior of these recent bounces or the volume are what I've seen in the recent past that indicate bull market is about to resume. Market needs a catalyst that I don't see coming. Economy will contract next year.
A few weeks ago when futures were flooded with millions of contracts bought over 3 days on a huge bounce, and then got sold right back to new lows, that revealed a lot.
We've had plenty of opportunity to sell off below 2600 and that hasn't happened either. No sellers below 2600 or buyers beyond 2800.
Tumble Weed said:Lyft allows drivers with a poorer rating to operate, where Uber will kick you off. Many of the Lyft only drivers started out as Uber drivers and were given the boot.Vernada said:
drivers also prefer working for Lyft and it shows.
Many drivers will do both Lyft and Uber and those always take the Lyft fares first - they also don't have any issue telling you Lyft treats them way better than Uber.
I use both companies, but the Uber drivers are usually better, and are in nicer cars.
Uber also had a strange string of PR with the CEO that couldn't get out of his own way.
Lol plenty of bad bad bad uber drivers that they don't boot. Lots have terrible ratings.
They need to let the rider have a setting in their profile on the minimum rating they are willing to accept. Anytime anyone has less than a 4.8 I cancel until I get someone better.
I've enjoyed your straight forward realistic analysis and would be 100% inline with your thought process but found this guy about 4 weeks ago and think his weekly videos have made me somewhat more optimistic. Really good historical perspective here, imo.
Here's one potential big catalyst before the end of year
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-violent-and-crushing-move-higher-is-taking-shape-this-month-analyst-says-2018-12-11
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-violent-and-crushing-move-higher-is-taking-shape-this-month-analyst-says-2018-12-11
oldarmy1 said:Macro is just another Darvis Box. I don't know how many times we have to cover this. It's why it's been go big at the lows and sell on the bounces. It's a traders dream market nearly a year now. Two 300 point wild swings from below 2600 to 2900 area with each wild swing followed by tighter swings over tighter swings.drill4oil78 said:Just the opposite of what we have on the SP500 now. Current weekly and monthly chart is a H&S pattern with the neckline at 2600. Break that and we are going to 2300 area. Considering other technical things going on, the odds are in favor of it breaking that neckline.FriscoKid said:
You guys are biased by what you think that chart is. Look at the price action at the bottom.
That is an inverse of the S&P from 2004. Monthly candles. I would not be selling on that chart with that kind of action. That looks like a reversal.
We were discussing the exact same thing back in 2015 into the election with a break to the upside out of that, taking us into the Jan 2018 top. To the bears - we've had some winners like SQ/ROKU/OLED along with the FANG stocks rapid rise within the sideways Darvis Box but look at most financials, pharma, construction, energy - nearly all have been range bound with no significant upside and quickly lost it on each range move down.
So that's a YEAR of consolidation, so it would be wise to pay attention to the facts and not over leverage to the downside beyond these retest lows within the Darvis Box - unless it breaks on volume. Yesterday we had the mass volume at the lows which tells us some major players aren't ready to throw the towel in. However, given the current conditions unless we get more big money rowing the same direction the bounces are shorter and shorter lived.
If we look at the 300 point swing from January 29th to February 9th (which is terrifying in itself to see over a 300 point drop in 10 days!) the ranges got tighter and tighter and then the bulls got enough directional agreement that a squeeze occurred taking us to new all-time highs. Now look at this current start of the quick drop. Tighter ranges under 2800.
So Bears break the Darvis Box on volume below 2600 (AND CLOSE BELOW 2550) OR Bulls break it above 2800 on volume (AND CLOSE ABOVE 2815).
For all the "you can't time the markets" people - while individual stocks behave more erratically within these macro moves - if you can't see the above analysis on the chart below, with your own eyes, then why are you even on a trading thread???
Simple trend line is broken (by a lot)....
I could get a lot more technical, but you are looking at the same thing I am. Under no possible condition is this just a "blip".
Technical levels are broken.
Whatever happens coming out of this, please do not let it be the circle jerk that was summer 2016.
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3416341-needham-slashes-roku-target-street-low
Quote:
Needham slashes Roku's (NASDAQ:ROKU) price target from $85 to $45, a new Street low, on Chinese trade tensions. The rating remains at Buy.
The firm cuts its earnings, revenue, and user addition estimates for 2019 "based on rising political tensions with China that may negatively impact Chinese-made TV sales in the US."
The user addition estimate drops by 1M to 5M for the year.
Needham still sees growth potential through partnerships with companies like Samsung.
Source: Bloomberg First Word.
Roku shares are down 0.2% premarket to $35.75.
Previously: Roku -6% as lead OEM partner TCL shifts away from consumer TVs (Dec. 11)
AVEO collaborating with AstraZeneca. Keeping them above 2.00 for the day. With all of their collaborations, I don't foresee a buyout anytime soon. Still holding long. Bags aren't that heavy anyways.