Oops. I listed $600 closing option price Friday when it will be close to $1000 you receive for the Put premium this morning. Net entry into NFLX $390 of assigned at $400.

However, I would wait and see if the last 3 day support attempt holds. Otherwise NFLX will knife under $400 and people will be able to add premium value at lower assigned strikes.

Good read in macro conditions.

https://realmoney.thestreet.com/articles/06/25/2018/trade-war-worries-and-rotational-action-take-toll-bulls?puc=CNBC&cm_ven=CNBC

Looks like red futures this morning, guess we'll be testing that lower trend line on the DJI again today?

gougler08 said:

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Looks like red futures this morning, guess we'll be testing that lower trend line on the DJI again today?

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New Trump tariffs and now adding some technology blocks with China. NASDAQ techs gonna be tested short term.

Mentioned concern on financials 2 weeks ago. Now we have clear head and shoulder patterns on most of the stalwarts. It's a good time for a strangle because something is going to give big. Either there is something extremely negative cooking on them or they will shake off this period of stagnation and break the cycle.



If you are a JPM holder this is not the chart you want to see. Increasing volume to the downside closing right at major support.

It's always a good idea to keep tabs on what the UltraShort and UltraBull ETF's are doing. Big money leverages these and will show where they see tops and bottom support levels in the markets.

SDS is UltraShort S&P ETF and when looking at these you have to think in reverse. The low support green line is pointing to market tops and the upper bands are pointing to reversals upward on the markets. You can see the huge volume spike that coincided with the biggest lower levels of the S&P when the initial market selloff hit. Then you can see a double top which became a double bottom on the S&P.

I used that in my analysis when posting the pivot points. Well today the ultrashort is heading upwards meaning downward on the S&P. The ETF is coming off a support level, although there is no such thing on an ETF - as it is simply a short sell of the entire S&P. For longs, you want to see today peak out and then head back downward like the last wave. See the previous wave form the cup but no handle? It immediately drops downward as the markets hit a higher high in reverse order.

But as with all things market related the latest cup hit in the support band meaning another wave upward on the markets would break down the SDS short chart. Do you think that happens? I don't personally at this point but can a sideways market continue into the elections? thin Thin THIN

Watch AVEO on a potential reverse bullish Harami formed Friday. Huge volume created a higher low and reversed back up to previous days high.

Ragoo said:

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oldarmy1 said:

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Ragoo said:

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BQ_2010 said:

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Howdy. I'm just getting started in trading. What are your thoughts on buying an 8/17 NFLX call? Their earnings report comes out 7/16. At what premium would you buy? Thanks

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do you want ir have the funds to own the stock out right? If yes, buy the shares then sell the 8/17 $450 strike call for $15. You now own the stock at 395.

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Also, it looks like it will have a further pullback and if it gets close to $405 you can sell the July 6th $400 Puts for close to $10 and if it is above $400 by expiration you banked $600/option (100 shares) but if its below $400 you own it at $390. On companies I want to own I do this a lot and have gone through multiple Put sales without getting shares - ending up making more than the appreciation of the stock had I owned it.

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selling options

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You can sell those July 6th $400 for $10.60 right now. You get assigned at $400 you own it net under $390.

BOX nearing trend support. Need it to hold $26.50. Volume came in so holding thus far.

All this red is unnerving.

Those July 6th NFLX $400 Puts are trading at $16.50 now.


Make that $17.88 now. Man when I said watch NFLX for a knife move I think they were listening! Wow

Ragoo said:

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All this red is unnerving.

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If an experienced trader like you is feeling that then you know everyone below your skill level is really freaking and that creates a rubberband effect flash down. And your feeling that way is not misplaced. The previous wave support on the DOW is being tested right now and the S&P has a quite a ways it can drop without even getting there.

oldarmy1 said:

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Those July 6th NFLX $400 Puts are trading at $16.50 now.


Make that $17.88 now. Man when I said watch NFLX for a knife move I think they were listening! Wow

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I have a bid to sell naked NFLX Put at $19.60

oldarmy1 said:

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oldarmy1 said:

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Those July 6th NFLX $400 Puts are trading at $16.50 now.


Make that $17.88 now. Man when I said watch NFLX for a knife move I think they were listening! Wow

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I have a bid to sell naked NFLX Put at $19.60

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you could sell ATM puts expiring this week for nearly $11.

Appreciate the headsup.....going that route

If you have the BP sell the call too and widen your delta. Gets you $22 and a trading range from 362 to 407.

Ragoo I got all of the trades done and literally 45 seconds later everything reversed upward. Your my guru!

JD taking a beating today

Will today be a good entry for MU? Or will supply issues drive the price down further and affect long-term growth?

Everyone is taking a beating. I'm waiting on it to go lower and get my average down. I don't think Walmart and Google invest in a failing company. I also think IQ people are getting antsy. I believe they will drop a few more bucks today. I'm sticking to, "Buy when there is blood in the streets," because I'm buying to hold for 5 year minimums.

UpstateAg said:

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Everyone is taking a beating. I'm waiting on it to go lower and get my average down. I don't think Walmart and Google invest in a failing company. I also think IQ people are getting antsy. I believe they will drop a few more bucks today. I'm sticking to, "Buy when there is blood in the streets," because I'm buying to hold for 5 year minimums.

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Oh no doubt, I bought just a week ago or so, just wish I would have waited now!

DIVE DIVE DIVE

Losing previous wave support on the DOW.....not good.

Rolled several options out another week. Little credit but more time.

oldarmy1 said:

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DIVE DIVE DIVE

Losing previous wave support on the DOW.....not good.

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Where's the next support?

gougler08 said:

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oldarmy1 said:

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DIVE DIVE DIVE

Losing previous wave support on the DOW.....not good.

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Where's the next support?

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Previous wave 24000 area with flash downs. It's pretty close to a retest of the beginning lows we saw when the sideways action began.

That is major support. Always understand that support can come in at any time that is a temporary support level. If that temporary support results in a rise above the previous support then that is completely tradeable. I prefer selling naked Puts in times like these and then usually buy a cheaper straight Put just in case major support gets broken and a free fall occurs.

LADR is under 16. Good buy and hold? I remember you saying under 16 was a good spot to buy in.

I went all cash this morning. Out of every single trade. I thought we were going down, but not this fast. I thought SPY would gradually work its way down to 271.0 this week and then a short term bounce to create a H&S look. We blew way past that.

This is from several days ago -- https://www.tradingview.com/chart/SPY/TYDeLde4-The-future-of-the-SPY-hidden-in-H-S-pattern-forming/

UpstateAg said:

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LADR is under 16. Good buy and hold? I remember you saying under 16 was a good spot to buy in.

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8% plus dividend. Absolutely a core long term holding that the price will not drop and offset the dividend.

Ranger222 said:

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I went all cash this morning. Out of every single trade. I thought we were going down, but not this fast. I thought SPY would gradually work its way down to 271.0 this week and then a short term bounce to create a H&S look. We blew way past that.

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All trading is currently subserviant to Trump's tarrif battles. He torpedoed the markets with over the weekend moves and then early this morning piled on technology.

This is the time to take vacations and have your wish list stocks retreat to baseline major support.

Would now be a good time to make yearly IRA contributions? I normally wait until year end just out of habit, but I could buy in right now for about where we at when I did last years.

sellthefarm said:

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Would now be a good time to make yearly IRA contributions? I normally wait until year end just out of habit, but I could buy in right now for about where we at when I did last years.

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50% now and 50% if we break the major markets support somewhere around 2500 S&P OR 50% at S&P 2800 whichever comes first.

SPX bounced right off 2700 previous support level. Frankly it means little to my decision making right now.

oldarmy1 said:

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SPX bounced right off 2700 previous support level. Frankly it means little to my decision making right now.

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What's your thought for tomorrow, heading down again to test major support or bouncing back in to the wave?

Discuss all you want, but the bottom line is the golden haired boy is really f****** up a lot of 401's, 403's, IRA's, etc, etc, etc. I still have a lot of margin in what I own and am well situated from a dividend standpoint, but good lord.